{"id":56763,"date":"2022-04-16T15:44:52","date_gmt":"2022-04-16T19:44:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=56763"},"modified":"2022-04-16T15:44:52","modified_gmt":"2022-04-16T19:44:52","slug":"the-continuum-through-the-limiters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/","title":{"rendered":"The Continuum: Through The Limiters!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Inflation pushes the 30-year Treasury bond yield through long-term moving average trends!<\/p>\n

Okay, let\u2019s take a breath. I don\u2019t like to use \u2018!\u2019 in titles or even in articles. In fact, when I see too many of them I immediately think that someone really\u00a0REALLY<\/em>\u00a0wants me to see their point. That said, the signal shown below is pretty important.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s in-month with a monstrously over-bearish bond sentiment backdrop similar to when we installed a red arrow on the chart below at the height of the Q1 2011 frenzy (cue the Bond King: \u201cshort the long bond!\u201d). Chart jockeys are probably delivering the bad news of the chart\u2019s inverted H&S, a potential for which\u00a0NFTRH<\/a>\u00a0began managing a year ago when the 30yr yield hit our initial target of 2.5% and then recoiled as expected after the public became very concerned about inflation.<\/p>\n

\"larry\"<\/p>\n

But we were planning for the possibility that the pullback could make a right side shoulder to a bullish pattern, and so it did. Now the question is whether the Continuum\u00a0continues<\/em>\u00a0(resumes its long journey down) or does something it has not done for decades, which is to break the limiting moving average trends. It\u2019s an important question, states Captain Obvious.<\/p>\n

The inflation hysteria a year ago was enough to foreshadow a contrary move in the other direction for inflation expectations (and the yield below). But beyond that, Larry was right; they had not seen anything yet. After a multi-month respite, now they see it (oh boy do they). They also see the Continuum (well, you and I do at least) piercing the limiters in a violent manner.<\/p>\n

That is why this chart exists; to let us know if something that has been in place for decades (dis-inflationary backbone against which the Fed inflates the system as needed) will continue or give way to something new for the modern era but not entirely new historically, as Ludwig von Mises would advise. That would be a debt-triggered inflationary\u00a0crack-up-boom<\/a>\u00a0or what I call Hellflation \u00a9.<\/p>\n

\"tyx\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Inflation will not die easily. At whatever point inflation, its \u2018expectations\u2019 indicators, and associated asset market trades make their highs we can expect a potentially dramatic pullback in the yield at some point. But if it does not pullback in the month of April (thereby flagging the monthly candle as a \u2018reversal\u2019 candle) the chances will increase that what has been for decades no longer will be.<\/p>\n

That was a secular trend up in bonds and down in long-term yields. That was the very backbone of the inflated Keynesian economy against which policymakers have inflated boom cycles (most recently in Q1, 2020) and once again printed our way out of the inevitable bust cycles that have followed them. It\u2019s a continuum, an ongoing game of hide the cheese (inflation). But the cheese is there in the form of all that debt that has not yet unwound.<\/p>\n

You wonder why the Fed is flashing its Hawk eyes? A break of the secular downtrend in long-term yields (uptrend in the long bond) will change the game by which the Fed has been able to reflate the system literally at will during every economic and market bust crisis over the last couple of decades. It was a no-brainer (for dyed in the wool Keynesians at least) to manipulate and monetize bonds at every sign of trouble as long as bonds were not indicating a serious problem with the Fed\u2019s primary tool, inflation. But if this and other indicators go on to make new secular trends \u2018Houston, we have a problem\u2019, and market participants have got to discard certain rule books.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n

Best,
\nGary Tanashian<\/a><\/p>\n

For \u201cbest of breed\u201d top-down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Pre<\/strong>mium<\/strong><\/a>, which includes an in-depth weekly\u00a0market report<\/strong>, detailed\u00a0market updates,<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0NFTRH+\u00a0<\/strong>dynamic updates and chart\/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by\u00a0PayPal<\/strong>\u00a0or\u00a0credit card<\/strong>\u00a0using a button on the right sidebar (if using a mobile device you may need to scroll down). Keep up to date with actionable public content at\u00a0NFTRH.com<\/a>\u00a0by using the\u00a0email form on the right sidebar<\/strong>. Follow via\u00a0Twitter<\/strong>\u00a0@NFTRHgt<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inflation pushes the 30-year Treasury bond yield through long-term moving average trends! Okay, let\u2019s take a breath. I don\u2019t like to use \u2018!\u2019 in titles or even in articles. In fact, when I see too many of them I immediately think that someone really\u00a0REALLY\u00a0wants me to see their point. That said, the signal shown below […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":56631,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6920],"tags":[8602,4273,1750,9991,12444],"class_list":["post-56763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ino-com-contributors","tag-30-year-treasury-bond-yield","tag-gary-tanashian","tag-inflation","tag-inverted-yield-curve","tag-yield-curve"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Continuum: Through The Limiters! - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Inflation pushes the 30-year Treasury bond yield through long-term moving average trends! Is inflation around to stay?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Continuum: Through The Limiters! - INO.com Trader's Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Inflation pushes the 30-year Treasury bond yield through long-term moving average trends! Is inflation around to stay?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"INO.com Trader's Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/inocom\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-04-16T19:44:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/inflation-written-newspaper-picture-id1273611633.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"628\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Gary Tanashian\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Gary Tanashian\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Gary Tanashian\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/767240b088a4ec9cf7d79fa609674991\"},\"headline\":\"The Continuum: Through The Limiters!\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-04-16T19:44:52+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-04-16T19:44:52+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/\"},\"wordCount\":699,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/inflation-written-newspaper-picture-id1273611633.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"30 year Treasury bond yield\",\"Gary Tanashian\",\"inflation\",\"inverted yield curve\",\"Yield Curve\"],\"articleSection\":[\"INO.com Contributors\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/\",\"name\":\"The Continuum: Through The Limiters! - INO.com Trader's Blog\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/inflation-written-newspaper-picture-id1273611633.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-04-16T19:44:52+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-04-16T19:44:52+00:00\",\"description\":\"Inflation pushes the 30-year Treasury bond yield through long-term moving average trends! Is inflation around to stay?\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/inflation-written-newspaper-picture-id1273611633.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/inflation-written-newspaper-picture-id1273611633.jpg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":628,\"caption\":\"inflation\"},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"INO.com Trader's Blog\",\"description\":\"Expert Charts, Trading Tips and Technical Analysis from INO.com\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#organization\",\"name\":\"INO.com Trader's Blog\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/inologo-400.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/inologo-400.jpg\",\"width\":400,\"height\":472,\"caption\":\"INO.com Trader's Blog\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/inocom\/\",\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company-beta\/1056449\/\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/767240b088a4ec9cf7d79fa609674991\",\"name\":\"Gary Tanashian\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c779c150dcd68c10e3a5ea0eb0997d91?s=96&d=identicon&r=pg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c779c150dcd68c10e3a5ea0eb0997d91?s=96&d=identicon&r=pg\",\"caption\":\"Gary Tanashian\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/nftrh.com\/\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/author\/gary-tanashian\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Continuum: Through The Limiters! - INO.com Trader's Blog","description":"Inflation pushes the 30-year Treasury bond yield through long-term moving average trends! Is inflation around to stay?","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Continuum: Through The Limiters! - INO.com Trader's Blog","og_description":"Inflation pushes the 30-year Treasury bond yield through long-term moving average trends! Is inflation around to stay?","og_url":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/","og_site_name":"INO.com Trader's Blog","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/inocom\/","article_published_time":"2022-04-16T19:44:52+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":628,"url":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/inflation-written-newspaper-picture-id1273611633.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Gary Tanashian","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Gary Tanashian","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/"},"author":{"name":"Gary Tanashian","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/767240b088a4ec9cf7d79fa609674991"},"headline":"The Continuum: Through The Limiters!","datePublished":"2022-04-16T19:44:52+00:00","dateModified":"2022-04-16T19:44:52+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/"},"wordCount":699,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/inflation-written-newspaper-picture-id1273611633.jpg","keywords":["30 year Treasury bond yield","Gary Tanashian","inflation","inverted yield curve","Yield Curve"],"articleSection":["INO.com Contributors"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/","url":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/","name":"The Continuum: Through The Limiters! - INO.com Trader's Blog","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/inflation-written-newspaper-picture-id1273611633.jpg","datePublished":"2022-04-16T19:44:52+00:00","dateModified":"2022-04-16T19:44:52+00:00","description":"Inflation pushes the 30-year Treasury bond yield through long-term moving average trends! Is inflation around to stay?","inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/the-continuum-through-the-limiters\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/inflation-written-newspaper-picture-id1273611633.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/inflation-written-newspaper-picture-id1273611633.jpg","width":1200,"height":628,"caption":"inflation"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/","name":"INO.com Trader's Blog","description":"Expert Charts, Trading Tips and Technical Analysis from INO.com","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#organization","name":"INO.com Trader's Blog","url":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/inologo-400.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/inologo-400.jpg","width":400,"height":472,"caption":"INO.com Trader's Blog"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/inocom\/","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company-beta\/1056449\/"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/767240b088a4ec9cf7d79fa609674991","name":"Gary Tanashian","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c779c150dcd68c10e3a5ea0eb0997d91?s=96&d=identicon&r=pg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c779c150dcd68c10e3a5ea0eb0997d91?s=96&d=identicon&r=pg","caption":"Gary Tanashian"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/nftrh.com\/"],"url":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/author\/gary-tanashian\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56763"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/31"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56763"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56763\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56763"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56763"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56763"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}