{"id":57850,"date":"2022-11-09T13:00:16","date_gmt":"2022-11-09T18:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=57850"},"modified":"2022-11-09T13:01:25","modified_gmt":"2022-11-09T18:01:25","slug":"1-stock-you-should-think-twice-about-buying","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2022\/11\/1-stock-you-should-think-twice-about-buying\/","title":{"rendered":"1 Stock You Should Think Twice About Buying"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>E-commerce and tech giant <a href=\"https:\/\/quotes.ino.com\/charting\/?s=NASDAQ_AMZN\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)<\/a> guided a slowdown in sales growth for the holiday season, making investors anxious. The company expects net sales between $140 billion and $148 billion for the year's final quarter, below analysts\u2019 expectations, representing a year-over-year improvement of as little as 2%.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cWe are seeing signs all around that, again, people\u2019s budgets are tight, inflation is still high, energy costs are an additional layer on top of that caused by other issues,\u201d<\/em> Amazon Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky said. <em>\u201cWe are preparing for what could be a slower growth period, like most companies,\u201d<\/em> he added.<\/p>\n<p>AMZN\u2019s shares plunged substantially following the gloomy forecast and are hovering around its 52-week low. The stock has slumped 46% year-to-date to the last trading session at $89.98, well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $116.72 and $130.19, respectively.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/13752.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/13752.jpg\" width=\"700\" height=\"auto\" alt=\"AMZN Chart\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<small><center><em>Source: MarketClub<\/em><\/center><\/small><\/p>\n<p>AMZN\u2019s market cap recently slipped below $1 trillion.<\/p>\n<div id=\"polls-614\" class=\"wp-polls\">\n\t<form id=\"polls_form_614\" class=\"wp-polls-form\" action=\"\/blog\/index.php\" method=\"post\">\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"poll_614_nonce\" name=\"wp-polls-nonce\" value=\"67d8b4aeea\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"display: none;\"><input type=\"hidden\" name=\"poll_id\" value=\"614\" \/><\/p>\n\t\t<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>How soon do you expect the stock to rejoin the \"Trillion-Dollar Club\"?<\/strong><\/p><div id=\"polls-614-ans\" class=\"wp-polls-ans\"><ul class=\"wp-polls-ul\">\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1905\" name=\"poll_614\" value=\"1905\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1905\">By the end of this year<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1906\" name=\"poll_614\" value=\"1906\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1906\">Early next year<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1907\" name=\"poll_614\" value=\"1907\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1907\">When the Fed pauses rate hikes<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1908\" name=\"poll_614\" value=\"1908\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1908\">Not before the 2023 holiday season<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<li><input type=\"radio\" id=\"poll-answer-1909\" name=\"poll_614\" value=\"1909\" \/> <label for=\"poll-answer-1909\">By June 2023<\/label><\/li>\n\t\t<\/ul><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><input type=\"button\" name=\"vote\" value=\"   Vote   \" class=\"Buttons\" onclick=\"poll_vote(614);\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(614);\" \/><\/p><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"#ViewPollResults\" onclick=\"poll_result(614); return false;\" onkeypress=\"poll_result(614); return false;\" title=\"View Results Of This Poll\">View Results<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n\t<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"polls-614-loading\" class=\"wp-polls-loading\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-polls\/images\/loading.gif\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading ...\" title=\"Loading ...\" class=\"wp-polls-image\" \/>&nbsp;Loading ...<\/div>\n\n<p>AMZN has been trying to navigate the macroeconomic headwinds and hosted two cornerstone sales events in a year: Prime Day in July and the Prime Early Access Sale last month.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Despite registering significant sales in the summer event, the company missed the consensus revenue estimate for the third quarter. Its cloud division, Amazon Web Services, also witnessed sales below expectations.<\/p>\n<div class='mailmunch-forms-widget-1089215'><\/div>\n<p>In addition, a report suggests U.S. online holiday sales will rise this year at their slowest pace since at least 2015, as consumers bear the brunt of sky-high inflation and the Fed\u2019s rate hikes. High inflation and declining consumer sentiments are expected to keep marring AMZN\u2019s growth.<\/p>\n<p>The troubling macroeconomic tides have compelled the e-retailer to control costs across its businesses. The company has slowed warehouse openings and has put a hold on hiring.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s what could influence AMZN\u2019s performance in the upcoming months:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Deteriorating Bottom Line<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>For the fiscal third quarter ended September 2022, AMZN\u2019s total net sales increased 14.7% year-over-year to $127.10 billion. However, its operating income declined 48% from the year-ago value to $2.53 billion, while its net income decreased 9% year-over-year to $2.87 billion. The company\u2019s EPS declined 9.7% from the prior-year quarter to $0.28.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, its comprehensive income came in at $539 million, down substantially from its year-ago value of $2.61 billion. Free cash flow decreased to an outflow of $19.7 billion for the trailing twelve months, compared with an inflow of $2.60 billion for the prior period.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bleak Bottom Line Growth Expectation<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Analysts expect the company\u2019s revenue to come in at $146.13 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter ending December 2022, indicating an increase of 6.3% year-over-year. Moreover, its revenue is expected to grow by 9.8% in the following quarter and 8.7% in the current fiscal year.<\/p>\n<p>However, the consensus EPS estimate of $0.19 for the ongoing quarter indicates an 86.2% decline from the prior-year quarter. Street expects AMZN\u2019s EPS to come at a negative $0.08 for the ongoing fiscal year.  <\/p>\n<p><strong>Premium Valuation<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>AMZN\u2019s forward EV\/Sales of 2.01x is 84.9% higher than the industry average of 1.09x. Also, its forward Price\/Sales and Price\/Book of 1.80x and 6.17x compare to the industry averages of 0.83x and 2.51x, respectively. Its forward Price\/Cash Flow multiple of 18.58 is 74.8% higher than the industry average of 10.63.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Lackluster Profitability<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>AMZN\u2019s EBIT margin of 2.58% is 68.1% lower than the industry average of 8.10%, while its net income margin of 2.25% is 57.2% lower than the industry average of 5.27%. Moreover, its levered FCF margin of negative 2.53% compare to the industry average of 1.43%.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, its ROE, ROTA, and ROTC of 8.78%, 2.64%, and 2.90% compare to the industry average of 14.31%, 4.82%, and 6.65%, respectively.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weak Technical Indicators<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>AMZN\u2019s solid market position and global presence are expected to help the company revive its fundamentals. However, given the current macroeconomic backdrop and deteriorating sentiments, the stock has been on a downtrend.<\/p>\n<p>According to <a href=\"https:\/\/club.ino.com\/join\/triangles.html?mktcode=INOBlog\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MarketClub\u2019s Trade Triangles<\/a>, AMZN\u2019s long-term trend has been DOWN since October 13, 2022, and its intermediate-term trend has been DOWN since August 22, 2022. Moreover, the stock\u2019s short-term trend has been DOWN since October 27, 2022.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/13753.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/13753.jpg\" width=\"700\" height=\"auto\" alt=\"AMZN Chart\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<small><center><em>Source: MarketClub<\/em><\/center><\/small><\/p>\n<p>The Trade Triangles are our proprietary indicators, comprised of weighted factors that include (but are not necessarily limited to) price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs\/lows. The Trade Triangles point in the direction of short-term, intermediate, and long-term trends, looking for periods of alignment and, therefore, intense swings in price.<\/p>\n<p>In terms of the Chart Analysis Score, another MarketClub proprietary tool, AMZN, scored -100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating that the downtrend will likely continue. Traders should use caution and set stops.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/13729.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.ino.com\/img\/sites\/ino\/email\/13729.jpg\" width=\"700\" height=\"auto\" alt=\"Chart Analysis Score\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium\" \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>The Chart Analysis Score measures trend strength and direction based on five different timing thresholds. This tool considers intraday price action; new daily, weekly, and monthly highs and lows; and moving averages.<\/p>\n<div class='mailmunch-forms-widget-1089216'><\/div>\n<p><a style=\"font-weight: bold;\" href=\"https:\/\/club.ino.com\/trend\/analysis\/stock\/AMZN\/?mktcode=INOBlog\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Click here to see the latest Score and Signals for AMZN.<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>What's Next for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)?<\/h3>\n<p>Remember, the markets move fast and things may quickly change for this stock. Our MarketClub members have access to entry and exit signals so they'll know when the trend starts to reverse.<\/p>\n<p><a style=\"font-weight: bold;\" href=\"https:\/\/club.ino.com\/join\/start\/checkout-2022-trial.html?mktcode=INOBlog\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Join MarketClub now<\/a> to see the latest signals and scores, get alerts, and read member-exclusive analysis for over 350K stocks, futures, ETFs, forex pairs and mutual funds.<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"btn btn-primary btn-lg\" href=\"https:\/\/club.ino.com\/join\/start\/checkout-2022-trial.html?mktcode=INOBlog\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Start Your MarketClub Trial<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Best,<br \/>\nThe MarketClub Team<br \/>\n<a href=\"mailto:su*****@in*.com\" data-original-string=\"VaCN8o211po3lksx03fNNQ==\" title=\"This contact has been encoded by Anti-Spam by CleanTalk. Click to decode. To finish the decoding make sure that JavaScript is enabled in your browser.\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><span \n                data-original-string=\"VaCN8o211po3lksx03fNNQ==\"\n                class=\"apbct-email-encoder\"\n                title=\"This contact has been encoded by Anti-Spam by CleanTalk. Click to decode. To finish the decoding make sure that JavaScript is enabled in your browser.\"><br \/>\n        <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur-group\"><br \/>\n            <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur_email-text\">su*****@in*.com<\/span><br \/>\n            <span class=\"apbct-ee-static-blur\"><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-init\"><\/span><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-soft\"><\/span><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-hard\"><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/span><br \/>\n            <span class=\"apbct-ee-animate-blur\"><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-init apbct-ee-blur_animate-init\"><\/span><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-soft apbct-ee-blur_animate-soft \"><\/span><br \/>\n                <span class=\"apbct-ee-blur apbct-ee-blur_rectangle-hard apbct-ee-blur_animate-hard\"><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/span><br \/>\n        <\/span><br \/>\n<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>E-commerce and tech giant Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) guided a slowdown in sales growth for the holiday season, making investors anxious. The company expects net sales between $140 billion and $148 billion for the year's final quarter, below analysts\u2019 expectations, representing a year-over-year improvement of as little as 2%. \u201cWe are seeing signs all around that, [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":57853,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[31544,325,2759],"class_list":["post-57850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-amazon-amzn","tag-marketclub","tag-stock-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>1 Stock You Should Think Twice About Buying - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"AMZN shows weak trends, with investors worrying about the company\u2019s gloomy outlook for the holiday season. 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