{"id":59155,"date":"2023-12-26T06:00:34","date_gmt":"2023-12-26T11:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=59155"},"modified":"2023-12-26T14:42:38","modified_gmt":"2023-12-26T19:42:38","slug":"navigating-the-2023-santa-claus-rally-3-top-stock-picks-for-year-end-gains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2023\/12\/navigating-the-2023-santa-claus-rally-3-top-stock-picks-for-year-end-gains\/","title":{"rendered":"Navigating the 2023 Santa Claus Rally: 3 Top Stock Picks for Year-End Gains"},"content":{"rendered":"

Understanding the Santa Claus Rally<\/b><\/p>\n

The<\/span> Santa Claus rally<\/span><\/a> refers to the sustained increase in the stock market indices that occurs during the last trading week of December and the first two trading days of the new year. It was first defined in The 1971 Stock Trader\u2019s Almanac by Yale Hirsch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historically, major market indices, including the S&P 500, the Dow Jones, and the Nasdaq Composite, witnessed higher gains during these seven days compared to any other seven trading days of the year. Going back to 1950<\/span>, the S&P 500 has gained<\/span> nearly 80% times<\/span><\/a> during this period.<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition to marking a solid trading period, the Santa Claus rally is used as an early indicator by traders for what may happen in the new year. <\/span>One of Yale Hirsch\u2019s famous lines states: \u201cIf Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Wall Street Awaits Santa Claus Rally This Year with Stocks Nearing Records<\/b><\/p>\n

As we head into the last few days of 2023, Wall Street investors are counting on the Santa Claus rally to generate<\/span> solid returns<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The S&P 500 climbed more than 4% in December alone and is up nearly 24% this year, bringing the index within 1% of a new all-time high. Also, the benchmark index is on track for its eighth consecutive positive week. The high optimism in the stock market is buoyed by solid earnings reports, several signs of strength in the economy, and a growing probability that interest rates will come down soon.<\/span><\/p>\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, and the central bank chief Jerome Powell said the<\/span> historic monetary policy tightening is likely over<\/span><\/a> as inflation falls faster than expected and signaled interest rate cuts into 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

Data released<\/span><\/a> last Friday supported the trend of easing inflation, showing annual U.S. inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, further dropped below 3% in November. The PCE index fell by 0.1% between October and November, the first monthly decline in over three and a half years.<\/span><\/p>\n

Combined with other latest data indicating disposable personal income and consumer sentiment rising, the U.S. economy seems to be heading into the new year on a solid footing.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe narrative will continue to be about the Fed making a dovish pivot,\u201d stated Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones. \u201cThat provides support on markets and sentiment and that is unlikely to change next week,\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Investors have demonstrated a substantial appetite for stocks lately. BofA clients bought about $6.4 billion of U.S. equities on a net basis in the last week, the largest weekly net inflow since October last year, BofA Global Research said in a December 19 report.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, there has been a \u201csharp increase\u201d in buying among retail investors over the past four to six weeks, Vanda Research said in a note last Wednesday.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAfter having chased higher yields aggressively in the past months, the FOMC pivot and strengthening soft-landing narrative have had individuals redirecting their purchases toward riskier securities,\u201d Vanda said in a note. \u201cWe expect this trend to continue into the new year as yields remain under pressure.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

3 Stocks to Bet on for Year-End Gains<\/b><\/p>\n

With a market cap of $1.58 trillion,<\/span> Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)<\/span><\/a> is an e-commerce giant that has a history of performing well during the holiday season. It engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company operates in North America; International; and Amazon Web Services (AWS) segments.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to the National Retail Federal (NRF), the holiday spending during November and December is expected to rise to \u201crecord levels\u201d of<\/span> between 3% and 4% year-over-year<\/span><\/a> to between $957.30 billion and $966.60 billion, respectively. The NRF projects that online and non-stores sales will grow between 7% and 9% to between $273.70 billion and $278.80 billion.<\/span><\/p>\n

With NRF projected holiday spending to surge to record levels, Amazon is anticipated to witness significant growth in its total sales volume and profit levels. The e-commerce giant held its latest<\/span> Prime Day sales event<\/span><\/a> on October 10 and 11, featuring two days of epic deals ahead of the holiday season. Also, AMZN announced plans to<\/span> hire about 250,000 additional workers<\/span><\/a> across its operations globally for the busy year-end sales period.<\/span><\/p>\n

The company\u2019s biannual Prime Day events help to drive its revenue. Despite persistent inflation rate, Amazon boasted<\/span> the biggest-ever Prime Day sale in July<\/span><\/a> this year. U.S. online sales during Amazon\u2019s Prime Day event grew 6.1% year-over-year to $12.70 billion, according to data by Adobe Analytics. The first 24 hours of the shopping event were touted as the \u201csingle-largest sales day in company history.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition, AMZN gets a considerable lift from the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales events held at the end of November and tied to Thanksgiving and Christmas.<\/span><\/p>\n

After all, <\/span>AMZN\u2019s trailing-12-month gross profit margin of 46.24% is 30.4% higher than the 35.47% industry average. Its trailing-12-month EBITDA margin of 13.35% is 22.4% higher than the 10.91% industry average. Moreover, the stock\u2019s trailing-12-month levered FCF margin of 5.57% is 25.9% higher than the 5.22% industry average.<\/span><\/p>\n

For the third quarter that ended September 30, 2023, AMZN\u2019s net sales increased 12.6% year-over-year to $143.08 billion. Its operating income rose 348% year-over-year to $11.19 billion. In addition, the company\u2019s net income and EPS came in at $9.88 billion and $0.94, compared to $2.90 billion and $0.28 in the same quarter of 2022, respectively.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analysts expect Amazon\u2019s revenue and EPS for the fourth quarter (ending December 2023) to increase 11.2% and 2,510% year-over-year to $165.93 billion and $0.78, respectively. Moreover, the company topped the consensus revenue estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, which is impressive.<\/span><\/p>\n

AMZN\u2019s stock is already up nearly 78% year-to-date. Further gains could come with a Santa Claus rally.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another stock that is primed for a holiday season rally is<\/span> American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO)<\/span><\/a>. It operates as a specialty retailer that offers clothing, accessories, and personal care products under the American Eagle and Aerie brands worldwide. AEO sells its products through retail stores; digital channels, like www.ae.com, www.toddsnyder.com, and www.unsubscribed.com; and applications.<\/span><\/p>\n

The solid performance of its key brands, such as American Eagle and Aerie, combined with strategic expansions into premium and activewear segments, indicates considerable potential for AEO\u2019s growth. The company\u2019s store designs, and online enhancements demonstrate its commitment to improving the customer experience.<\/span><\/p>\n

During the third quarter that ended October 28, 2023, AEO\u2019s net sales increased 4.9% year-over-year to $1.30 billion. Its gross profit was $543.80 million, up 13.3% from the prior year\u2019s quarter. The company\u2019s net income came in at $96.70 million, or $0.49 per share, compared to $81.27 million, or $0.42 per share, in the prior year\u2019s period, respectively.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI am pleased with our third quarter results which demonstrated the strength of our brands and reflected continued progress on our growth and profit improvement initiatives. Our strategic priorities, underpinned by our customer-first focus and commitment to operational excellence, are propelling us forward,\u201d<\/span> said<\/span><\/a> Jay Schottenstein, AEO\u2019s Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors and CEO.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cMomentum has continued across the business into the fourth quarter, driven by strong holiday assortments, engaging marketing campaigns and solid execution, supporting our improved outlook for the rest of the year,\u201d Schottenstein added. \u201cLooking ahead, we remain focused on advancing our long-term strategic priorities, as we seek to create consistent growth across our portfolio of brands and generate efficiencies for improved profit flow-through.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

For the full year, AEO\u2019s management forecasts revenue to be up mid-single digits to last year, compared to the previous guidance for revenue up low single digits. Operating income is projected to be in the range of $340 to $350 million, at the high end of prior guidance of $325 to $350 million. This reflects strengthened demand and continued profit improvement.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For the fourth quarter, the company\u2019s outlook reflects revenue up high-single digits and operating income in the range of $105 to $115 million. The revenue outlook includes a four-point positive contribution from the 53rd week.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Street expects AEO\u2019s revenue and EPS for the fourth quarter (ending January 2024) to increase 8.5% and 17.8% year-over-year to $1.62 billion and $0.44, respectively. Also, the company has surpassed the consensus revenue and EPS estimates in all four trailing quarters.<\/span><\/p>\n

Shares of AEO have surged more than 25% over the past month and approximately 45% over the past year.<\/span><\/p>\n

The third stock,<\/span> JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK)<\/span><\/a>, also tends to shine during the holiday season. With a market cap of $347.33 million, JAKK produces, markets, sells, and distributes toys and related products worldwide. The company operates through the Toys\/Consumer Products and Costumes segments.<\/span><\/p>\n

The company is primarily benefiting from the expansion of product offerings by strategizing business operations, coupled with the growing focus on partnerships. On November 1, JAKK announced entering a long-term agreement with Authentic Brands Group to design and distribute products inspired by iconic brands like Forever 21 and Sports Illustrated, aiming for a global retail debut in 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

The partnership aligns with JAKK\u2019s strategy to expand into new product categories, targeting Millennials and Gen Z while leveraging Authentic\u2019s platform to diversify its seasonal offerings and explore additional collaborations.<\/span><\/p>\n

JAKK\u2019s trailing-12-month net income margin of 12.18% is 169.5% higher than the 4.52% industry average. Likewise, the stock\u2019s trailing-12-month ROCE, ROTC, and ROTA of 56.52%, 17.03%, and 16.96% are significantly higher than the industry averages of 11.40%, 6.01%, and 3.99%, respectively.<\/span><\/p>\n

For the third quarter that ended September 30, 2023, JAKK\u2019s reported net sales from the Costumes segment increased 19% year-over-year to $63.70 million. Its gross profit grew 16.4% year-over-year to $106.99 million. The company\u2019s income from operations rose 16.1% from the year-ago value to $62.40 million. Its adjusted EBITDA grew 12.9% year-over-year to $67.07 million.<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition, the company\u2019s adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders increased 28.4% year-over-year to $50.09 million, and its EPS came in at $4.75, up 25% year-over-year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

After reporting outstanding fiscal 2023 third-quarter results, Stephen Berman, CEO of JAKKS Pacific, said, \u201cWe are looking forward to the holiday season and have recently finished great customer meetings previewing our Fall 2024 product line. We are exceeding our own internal expectations for the full-year and are carefully navigating towards the end of the year given the persistent uncertainty about consumer behavior.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

JAKK\u2019s stock has climbed more than 14% over the past month and is up nearly 100% year-to-date.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bottom Line<\/b><\/p>\n

We are heading into the last few days of the year, which typically represents a favorable time for the stock market and investors. Known as the Santa Claus rally, the stock market tends to rise substantially in the last trading week of December and the first two trading days of the new year.<\/span><\/p>\n

This year, the optimism is high, with the Federal Reserve surprising investors earlier this month by signaling that its historic monetary policy tightening is likely over and projecting interest rate cuts in 2024. Moreover, the latest robust data indicates strength in the U.S. economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Of course, year-end holiday shopping offers a considerable sales boost to retailers and other companies, which can help lift stock prices. AMZN, AEO, and JAKK are set to shine in the year-end Santa Claus rally.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the Santa Claus Rally offers profitable investment opportunities, day traders should approach it with immense caution and implement an effective risk management strategy. Pre-setting position sizes, setting stop-loss orders, diversifying portfolios, and adhering to a well-defined trading plan are essential steps for managing risk during the rally.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Understanding the Santa Claus Rally The Santa Claus rally refers to the sustained increase in the stock market indices that occurs during the last trading week of December and the first two trading days of the new year. It was first defined in The 1971 Stock Trader\u2019s Almanac by Yale Hirsch. Historically, major market indices, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":58698,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[33254,32089,33035,33256,33257,33253,33258,33036,32090,33250,33251,33260,33255,32433,6968,33259,33252],"class_list":["post-59155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-000-additional-workers","tag-amazon-com","tag-american-eagle-outfitters","tag-between-3-and-4-year-over-year","tag-data-released","tag-hire-about-250","tag-historic-monetary-policy-tightening-is-likely-over","tag-inc-aeo","tag-inc-amzn","tag-inc-jakk","tag-jakks-pacific","tag-nearly-80-times","tag-prime-day-sales-event","tag-said","tag-santa-claus-rally","tag-solid-returns","tag-the-biggest-ever-prime-day-sale-in-july"],"yoast_head":"\nNavigating the 2023 Santa Claus Rally: 3 Top Stock Picks for Year-End Gains - INO.com Trader's Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Wall Street is counting on the Santa Claus rally to close out an impressive 2023 for stocks. 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