{"id":59255,"date":"2024-01-25T06:00:08","date_gmt":"2024-01-25T11:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ino.com\/blog\/?p=59255"},"modified":"2024-01-25T13:42:36","modified_gmt":"2024-01-25T18:42:36","slug":"short-squeeze-alert-analyzing-the-impact-of-jetblues-blocked-acquisition-on-save-stock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wwwtest.ino.com\/blog\/2024\/01\/short-squeeze-alert-analyzing-the-impact-of-jetblues-blocked-acquisition-on-save-stock\/","title":{"rendered":"Short Squeeze Alert: Analyzing the Impact of JetBlue's Blocked Acquisition on SAVE Stock"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The past few days have proven to be quite turbulent for<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/quotes.ino.com\/charting\/?s=NYSE_SAVE\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE)<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, with notable fluctuations in its market value. From a federal judge opposing a proposed merger, sending SAVE stock into a nosedive, to David Portnoy investing in and promoting the company on January 18, resulting in SAVE's share price surge \u2013 the airline stock garnered significant attention.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The initial blow to the ultra-low-cost carrier's stock unfolded last week when<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/quotes.ino.com\/charting\/?s=NASDAQ_JBLU\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">JetBlue Airways Corporation\u2019s (JBLU)<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> $3.8 billion bid to takeover SAVE was thwarted by court intervention. This resulted in a sharp drop of as much as 74% over three days, throwing the fate of the previously secure deal into uncertainty. This drew attention to the mounting question about the survival prospects for SAVE.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Navigating the airline industry presents several complications. The inevitable costs associated with acquiring aircraft and employing relevant staff mount up, especially considering the volatile nature of jet fuel prices. This renders the sector vulnerable to bankruptcy, as demonstrated by prominent airlines, such as Pan Am, and countless smaller entities. Occasionally, airlines can re-emerge post-Chapter 11 restructuring, emulating the revival of American Airlines in 2013.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In other instances, they vanish indefinitely, leaving travelers in the lurch. According to TD Cowen analyst Helene Becker,<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dcourier.com\/news\/2024\/jan\/19\/major-airline-fires-back-at-analyst-over-bankruptc\/\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SAVE may also be at risk<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Additionally, there is fervor among the investment community fueled by a return to bullish attitudes and a robust performance by S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq in the past year. Such success encourages \u201cget rich quick\u201d mentalities, evidenced by a flood of social media messages advocating for SAVE shares to skyrocket imminently without any factual basis.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite this, some analysts do not predict either a bankruptcy or a dramatic escalation for SAVE. Furthermore, the company reaching a book value of $12.06 per share is also not anticipated.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This article sheds light on the latest updates, evaluates SAVE's fundamentals, and provides prospective investors with guidance regarding SAVE's future value.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Merger<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The proposed merger would position JBLU as the fifth-largest airline in the U.S., vigorously contesting long-standing dominators Southwest, American, Delta and United Airlines. With an estimated domestic market share of 10%, it promised to diversify flight options and stimulate industry competition.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The acquisition was conjectured to enhance JBLU's cancellation policy through the planned substitution of SAVE\u2019s non-refundable fares with JBLU\u2019s Passenger Bill of Rights, which ensures an automatic reassessment upon inevitable delays and cancellations. The resultant entity could minimize flight delays and cancellations due to the availability of an expanded fleet and heightened pilot workforce following the merge.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Furthermore, JBLU's route network was expected to broaden, encompassing SAVE's reach in Central and South America and the Caribbean, supplementing its existing local and international destinations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A federal judge, however, recently blocked the merger, arguing that<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.travelweekly.com\/Travel-News\/Airline-News\/JetBlue-Spirit-ruling-analysis\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SAVE's cost-sensitive customer base could be harmed<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. The court determined that the consolidation would infringe on antitrust law, which is designed to prevent anti-competitive harm to consumers. The decision highlighted a potential decrease in affordable ticket options for price-conscious travelers nationwide.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Concerns were voiced about escalating ticket prices, particularly for low-cost seekers, considering JBLU's previous estimation of a<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/jalopnik.com\/jetblue-ticket-prices-rise-30-percent-spirit-merger-1850977400#:~:\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">30% price hike<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the absence of SAVE as a competitor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A surge in SAVE's market value triggered by the proposed merger piqued the interest of arbitrage investors looking to capitalize on price gaps between company equity and the offer price. However, the merger's block prompted investors to withdraw, subsequently depreciating SAVE's stock value.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A joint appeal by JBLU and SAVE against the ruling in hopes of reviving the merger is another interesting twist in the carriers' merger attempt. SAVE's stock price experienced a<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2024\/01\/22\/spirit-airlines-stock-rebounds-after-appeal-of-jetblue-merger-block.html\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">slight rebound<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in response to this move.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SAVE's stock witnessed an upward trend after Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy took to Twitter and openly commended SAVE\u2019s value. His proclamation of SAVE as a \"<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/finbold.com\/spirit-airlines-stock-climbs-60-since-dave-portnoy-calls-it-a-mega-buy\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">mega buy<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\" sparked a late-week rally.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite these developments, it seems improbable that the judicial verdict will be overturned. The merger blockage is anticipated to persist. Potential investors should assess SAVE on individual merit and without expectations for the completion of such a corporative action.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s delve deeper into the fundamentals of SAVE.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The airline, with a market cap of approximately $898 million, boasts an extensive workforce numbering over 11,000 employees. The ownership structure of the company shows a mix of roughly 0.5% insiders and about 67.7% institutional holders.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, SAVE has grappled with financial sustainability. Their ticket sales have not seen recovery at the pace anticipated, and several of its planes are being temporarily grounded due to engine problems necessitating inspection and possible replacements. SAVE anticipates an average of<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.prnewswire.com\/news-releases\/spirit-airlines-reports-third-quarter-2023-results-301968152.html\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">26 grounded aircraft<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, over 10% of its fleet, during 2024. As a result, Pratt &amp; Whitney engines on numerous Airbus jets could drastically hamper immediate growth predictions for the company.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SAVE raised<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/commodities\/CEU21\/pressreleases\/23407922\/with-merger-scuttled-spirit-airlines-faces-an-uncertain-future-is-bankruptcy-a-possibility\/\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$419 million<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> through the mortgage of many of its airplanes. However, the future options for raising liquidity seem limited. As per results for the fiscal third quarter that ended September 30, 2023, SAVE's overall operating revenue stood at $1.26 billion, a 6.3% year-over-year decline. The net loss for the quarter was reported at $157.55 million, a 333% rise year-over-year, while net loss per share surged by 336.4% from the year-ago quarter to $1.44.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The precarious liquidity situation at SAVE is hinted at by its quick ratio of 0.69. Its Total Debt\/Equity ratio exceeding 500% indicates that for every dollar of equity, the company holds five dollars in debt. This high leverage exposes the company to greater risk while settling its debt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On December 31, 2023, SAVE's liquidity stood at $1.3 billion, including unrestricted cash and equivalents, short-term investment securities, and $300 million under a revolving credit facility. The company is currently in talks with Pratt &amp; Whitney to negotiate compensation for the geared turbofan engine faults that may provide significant liquidity in the next few years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While SAVE is not bankrupt and still commands liquidity, they are not without challenges. Their $1.3 billion is barely above their debt due in 2025 \u2013 amounting to $1.1 billion, which is slated for restructuring next year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Given that higher risk-free rates have led to a cooling of corporate debt markets, creating an unfavorable environment for debt refinancing, SAVE's management team must explore severe measures to ensure the corporation\u2019s ongoing viability, especially when the likelihood of the merger being off the table is high.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Credit rating company Fitch has issued a warning regarding the \"<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fitchratings.com\/research\/corporate-finance\/fitch-downgrades-spirit-airlines-to-b-outlook-negative-23-01-2024\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">significant refinancing risk<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\" SAVE is expected to encounter in the coming year due to the $1.1 billion debt owed by its loyalty program, which is due for repayment in September 2025. Although Fitch has maintained a B\/Negative credit rating for SAVE's debt, it has encouraged the airline to formulate a near-term strategy to increase liquidity, reduce refinancing risk, and boost profitability to prevent further negative ratings.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Details concerning this scenario are expected to emerge on February 8, 2024, when the company will disclose its 2023 fourth-quarter results.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite the challenges,<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/bnnbreaking.com\/world\/us\/spirit-airlines-optimistic-financial-forecast-spurs-stock-value-surge\/\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SAVE is optimistic<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> about its future earnings \u2013 projecting that total revenue will surpass prior estimations. The airline anticipates its fourth-quarter revenue to come at $1.32 billion, which exceeds the higher benchmarks established in its prior projection. This optimistic outlook is primarily attributed to the robust bookings received during the 2023 year-end travel peak.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The airline also forecasts a fuel cost reduction that would help relieve some revenue pressure and enable increased earnings. Operational costs for the quarter are expected to be lower than predicted, primarily due to decreased fuel expenses driven by improved fuel efficiency, reduced airport costs, and other factors. Additionally, SAVE predicts a significant contraction in its negative margin, foreseeing it to shrink down to between 12% and 13% from the previously anticipated negative margin of up to 19%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Is SAVE a Worthy Investment?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When a stock encounters difficulties as notable as those faced by SAVE, the conversation invariably turns toward short-squeeze speculation. Despite recent losses, SAVE's share trajectory appears to have rebounded. However, it's plausible that this upward momentum results in more from short-squeeze speculation among retail investors than it does from positive news about the airline itself.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The current high level of short interest in SAVE stock further buttresses this theory. Data pulled from the short analysis platform Fintel corroborates this, showing that the<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/fintel.io\/ss\/us\/save\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">short interest is 19.75%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Short sellers presently only have a minuscule 0.27-day window to cover their positions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Considering SAVE's shaky foothold, Citi's analyst, Stephen Trent, has<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wallstreetzen.com\/news\/spirit-airlines-nyse-save-downgraded-to-strong-sell-by-citigroup-analyst\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">downgraded the company<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from a Hold to a Sell, simultaneously lowering the price target from $13 to $4.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While there remains the possibility of an appeal, Trent questions its logic, stating, \u201c\u2026it is unclear why JetBlue wouldn\u2019t cut its losses here and recognize that it avoided a risky bid on a highly levered carrier with steep losses.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">He further predicts that SAVE's EBITDA isn't likely to turn positive until 2025. A bond yield surpassing 40% augments the hurdles SAVE faces in securing another merger proposal.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Bottom Line<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Undoubtedly, the previous week proved to be a stormy period for SAVE. However, some observers are optimistic that the company may recover and could potentially regain its value.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The future now hinges on the appeal filed jointly by SAVE and JBLU; its potential impact on the stock price in the coming weeks remains unknown.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Given the various challenges currently plaguing SAVE, the trend of short selling seems almost unavoidable. Indeed, SAVE presents a distinct possibility for a short squeeze, given its bleak future, which might include bankruptcy or liquidation. It's feasible that investors could identify it as their subsequent target. Nevertheless, this offers no guarantee of sustained squeeze or any significant profits.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It becomes crucial for investors to closely monitor SAVE\u2019s overall performance moving forward. Unlike its competitors, the company hasn\u2019t been able to recover due to a host of difficulties. This includes the availability of pilots, engine malfunctioning, saturation in certain domestic markets, and pronounced exposure to regions impacted by air traffic control adversities.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Considering the broader context, investors are advised to exercise caution and look for more favorable entry points in the stock.<\/span><\/p>\n<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The past few days have proven to be quite turbulent for Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE), with notable fluctuations in its market value. From a federal judge opposing a proposed merger, sending SAVE stock into a nosedive, to David Portnoy investing in and promoting the company on January 18, resulting in SAVE's share price surge \u2013 [&hellip;]<!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on get_the_excerpt --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":57900,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[33482,33483,33486,33478,33491,33489,33484,33480,33488,33487,33479,33481,33485,33490],"class_list":["post-59255","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-419-million","tag-26-grounded-aircraft","tag-30-price-hike","tag-downgraded-the-company","tag-inc-save","tag-jetblue-airways-corporations-jblu","tag-mega-buy","tag-save-is-optimistic","tag-save-may-also-be-at-risk","tag-saves-cost-sensitive-customer-base-could-be-harmed","tag-short-interest-is-19-75","tag-significant-refinancing-risk","tag-slight-rebound","tag-spirit-airlines"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v23.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Short Squeeze Alert: Analyzing the Impact of JetBlue&#039;s Blocked Acquisition on SAVE Stock - INO.com Trader&#039;s Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Spirit Airlines&#039; (SAVE) shares were cut in half last week following a judicial decision blocking its merger with JetBlue Airways (JBLU). However, SAVE has since managed to curtail this striking downward trend and shows signs of recovery. This raises the question: Could a short squeeze be on the horizon for SAVE&#039;s stock? 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This raises the question: Could a short squeeze be on the horizon for SAVE&#039;s stock? 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