October has been a busy month for gold. First, it hit a record high on October 18th at 1386.72 and gave all of our gold bugs reason to say I told you so. Then, earlier this week gold took a small dive prompting an exit signal via the "Trade Triangles" for short-term traders. Here at MarketClub, we've been hearing talk of a gold bubble, but what do you think?
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The MarketClub Team
wow i guess u missed it!
Aqui em Portugal,vai estourar é a carteira do ouro das pessoas. Ando tudo sem dinheiro,que são obrigados a vendêr o ouro que tem em casa.
São os ciclos da vida.A vida é dura...
"Here in Portugal, will burst is the portfolio of gold from the people. Ando everything without money, they are forced to sell the gold you have at home.
Are cycles of life.The life is hard ..." Translated using Google Translate
galdur,
Your reasons for a strong dollar I'd cite for why the dollar has not gone down even faster and sooner, though they still deserve and need to, and not for why it can never.
Are you long the dollar and short gold now?
While either can get oversold or overbought in the short term, the trends, IMO, both intermediate and long term, are pretty solid.
Time will tell.
Shane Connor, when I now recommend going long the dollar and short gold it's intermediate term, maybe 6-12 months. Technically the dollar is very oversold and hence attractive and gold is massively overbought. Corrections in both directions are presently in order.
The US is still the world's most important economy mostly on account of the gargantuan prowess of her consumers (and credit providers) which have fueled economic growth in the east. Since a major disconnect here would put the ruling elite in China in danger (millions of upward moving middle class there crashing) there is actually very little likelihood of the dollar melting down. Add that it has extreme military strength behind it. It's actually difficult to imagine what that military is capable of there have been so many black projects off the books. With this might it would be possible to coerce America´s creditors. Who really knows what is going on. So; the pillars of the dollar are very strong and I believe it is starting a good run now which will last for at least 6-12 months to the detriment of gold. Regards, g.
Galdur, the only thing the world is drowning in is the biggest supply/demand disconnect bubble in history; the US Dollar, which continues to have way too much supply coming on, compounded by ever eroding demand for it. All real in-demand assets, as priced in dollars, are, have, and will continue going up; oil, gold, silver, food, etc. In the short term, yes, anything can and will happen to shake weak hands off these bull trends, but longer term looking forward, the dollar will be lower and everything essential priced in it inevitably higher.
To dismiss gold's steady rise higher every single year for a decade now to having "been fueled by doomsday merchants" and also claim that "inflation is basically non-existent in the west" does not jive with reality on the ground.
Ask yourself, if you were magically transported a decade or two into the future and could only take with you either 1 million paper dollars or 750 ozs of gold bullion coins, which would you choose?
The answer is very simple, the dollar value of the paper traded in gold is 100:1 the actual physical cash gold traded. Notice how I said traded not exists. Bubble? Who cares as long as you are on the right side of the trade. And let's not forget a trader is only as good as his/hers last trade.
the US has no gold....no one has seen it for decades and THEY REFUSE TO DO OPEN INVENTORY.ITS BEEN SOLD TO SUPPRESS THE PRICE OF GOLD OR TO KEEP THE FALLING DOLLAR UP.dollar falls ,pice of gold falls,gold rises,dollar falls again.price of gold falls again(sell off).dollarr rises.(hurray).gold rises or dollar drops in value,sell off,price of gold goes down dollar gains some.loosing battle.dollar is going lower and gold is going higher.
The world is drowning in overcapacity. The east has endless supplies of cheap labor and exports massive deflation to the west. As a result inflation is basically non-existent in the west, in spite of ceaseless money printing and bailouts. In this light the gold and silver bubbles look very silly indeed. They have been fueled by doomsday merchants and other gloom and doomers which have been predicting Mad Max scenarios without any success for a long time now.
The US dollar is actually the basis of all of this, since metals and commodities trade in dollar and US stock and bond markets lead other world markets. I believe that the dollar is now starting to oscillate upwards and will in the process totally decimate US stock markets and metals and commodities.
Cabal, relax, all those Nitwit Nadler's, Bob 'Trust me, gold's going down' Prechter's, wet-blanket Gartman's, and CNBC commentators, etc., are very bullish positive indicators of how much farther this bull has to run up that so few supposed 'experts' can see it, yet.
It's all good, enjoy and make the most of your opportunity here to pick up some more physical gold/silver on the cheap while so many continue to fail to acknowledge this decade long stealth PM bull.
Wow, over 70 comments and not even one touches on the crux of the problem 🙁
"NEVER HAVE SO MANY KNOWN SO LITTLE ABOUT THEIR OWN MARKET" Bill Murphy
Tell Me Adam why are You always trying to talk gold down? But in fact when the last stack of
FIAT PAPER fuels a furnace there will only be 2 metals standing worldwide as money
As they always have....
the chance to trade Your oz's of gold for 80 oz's of silver has past
For the last time iMho.... but hey 56 to 1 is better than the historic ratio of 10-15 to 1...
So where are You going to store all of those heavy oz's of silver? Won't that really be a problem
For You when silver is worth 5 times the price of gold heh? Any BANKS for sale yet? Think I'm
Dreaming? The historic ratio of 10-15 to 1 (price of silver to goldchilles) was based roughly on the
Number of above ground ounces of each metal... iow there was approx 10-15 times as many
Above ground ounces of silver than gold but today in fact there is 5 times more above ground
Ounces of gold the there is of silver! Don't believe Me? Do Your Own due diligence and investigations
Then as I have... the reason of course is because silver gets consumed as an industrial metal as well
As jewlery and investment!
Did You know that in over 50 languages on earth the same word that is used for money is also used
For silver? Silver is money period! Not that amerika follows it's constitution anymore but for anyOne
Still interested check to see how Your constitution defines a dollar ok?
Silver is the CABAL'S achilles heal iMho...
Thank You for reading and I do have to enter this delete comment or it will prove
At least to Me who the CABAL accomplices really are...
With AU @ $1340 & its commodity value is $1200, a 10% primium does not qualify as excessive. Therefore AU is not in a bubble.
Moody's Spot Commodity Index was constructed of 21 commodities, excluding AU & OIL in 1930 with a basis of #100. AU was fixed @ $20.00. Yesterday that index was near #6000. So 60 x's $20=$1200. So for 10% more you get not only an inflation hedge or store-of-value but a safe harbor or insurance premium.
Of course there is a gold bubble, but it is likely to get a lot bigger. In the recent CFTC hearings Christian said that the amount of paper that TRADES exceeds the amount of physical that TRADES by 100:1, which is not surprising at all, given that only people who plan to hold awhile take delivery. This quote was twisted by the gold-pumper media to read as if he said that the amount of paper that EXISTS exceeds the amount of physical that EXISTS by 100:1. That would be something entirely different, obviously, and if true would mean the possibility of a physical shortage and/or default. By now the misquoted version of what he said has become "common knowledge", triggering this recent run. We could see gold at $4-5000 or more before the bubble peaks.
Even without this bubble my expectation was for the Dow-Gold ratio to hit a cyclical low in the 2-5 range by 2012, down from 43.7 at the peak in 2000. I now think we may see that ratio range a year earlier than I expected.
Indeed, time and time alone will tell.
Without getting into the other arguments either way here, I'd like to see a better definition of the word "bubble" because I think it's being misused here compared to how I view it.
To me (anyway) a bubble is defined by insane over-valuation, driven by debt. Are people going into debt to buy gold? I'm not enough of an expert on derivitives to call that one, but to me, the debt, and resulting long term damage in debt overhang after a bubble pops are what define a true bubble.
Is gold insanely overvalued? To me, no -- an ounce will buy about the same amount of stuff now as it did a hundred or more years ago.
Are people going into debt to buy it? I'm not sure how I'd tell - perhaps someone here with more experience in things that amount to debt but are called something else could say, I plain do not know, but I'm seeing nothing like the talk around the .com or housing bubbles when we get together around the barbeque here.
I'm long some gold (what some would call paper gold), but I'm a trader and will follow the ticker where it leads me. Whatever we think, the tape is the truth!
Gold has value and always will have value. Its irresponsible governments that are afraid of it. They would like to manipulate it but cant. But they can manipulate fiat currencies with ease.
For those who say gold is in a bubble, two questions;
At what price over the last decade did it cross that line into being a bubble; $300, $500, $750, $1000, $1200?
Were you ever long gold before that and then got short of gold since that?
If you're not, then your opinion of a bubble here carries much less weight, IMO. It's that old thing about putting money where your mouth is.
IMO, most traders have missed the bulk of this decade long stealth gold bull and many of them now 'hope & pray' it's a bubble fixing to collapse to assuage their having lost out participating in an asset that's been higher every single year for the last decade.
The fundamental reasons gold has gone up have not now suddenly abated and reversed, but IMO only intensified and increased. Yes, there are more speculators now and there will be more volatility, but the trend is even more firmly in-place, for fundamental reasons, and could be your friend, if you let it.
Unfortunately, there's many on the sidelines here throwing stones at gold cause of sour grapes they missed it, who would be better served admitting they'd been wrong about gold, but that's a bull for you, moving up with as few on board as possible, not a bubble where everybody already has. There's also a ton of people who say they'd get aboard if we had a major pullback, so we probably won't see that soon, except much later from much higher prices. Whatever will assure the fewest will have gotten aboard is more likely what we'll see going forward.
If you call yourself a contrarian, betting against the crowd, how can you not recognize that the crowd thinks gold is too high, is in a bubble, will collapse 50% or more, and that most everybody that could be on board is not. You are most firmly with the crowd if you are on the sidelines and not long gold here.
Same goes for silver, too, and even more so as IMO it'll rise even faster than gold.
Time will tell...
GOLD IS OBVIOUSLY IN A BULL MARKET, NOT A TOP, BUT A FULL BLOWN $2000. PER OUNCE BULL RUN.
AND EVERYONE IS STARING - STUPIFIED. IT'S LIKE A MASTURBATOR'S BEST DREAM - GOLD JUST KEEPS COMING, AND COMING, ALL OVER THE PLACE. WHAT A HIGH! FROM 250. IN 2001 TO 1300. IN 2010 -
TO 2000. IN 2017, YES, UP, UP AND AWAY.
The dollar is extremely oversold here and seems to be getting ready to test its 50 and 200-day MA's which means a pop of 5-10% at least. Personally I think it´s continuing its regular oscillation and will try to take out its 2008, 2009 and 2010 tops.
Since a weak dollar benefits the earnings of US multinationals and hence their stock prices (which probably means that most of the incessant dollar bashing comes from stock traders and their henchmen) I recommend putting part of your portfolio into dollar long and the DJIA short. Or better still divide your short position between the Dow and metals and commodities, in other words that which is traded in dollar and hence likely to be hurt price wise by the dollar's rise.
My vote would be that Gold has seen a near term top and is due for a considerable pullback, at the least. Sure, I may be wrong, but considering the potential upside from here against a contrarian move lower against the "herd" seems likely. Here's an interesting chart I posted recently on Gold's chart history: http://www.online-stock-trading-guide.com/mania-in-gold.html
I have to admit though, last year when "Gold Vending Machines" began to show up in Europe, I thought that was the top for sure. Although, the company has recently decided to expand the number of vending machines now : http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/oct/21/gold-bullion-vending-machines
O Ouro sempre têve o seu valôr. Já no tempo da pré história assim o era.
Por mim o melhor era começár a negociar com pedras.
Translation by Google
"Gold has always had its value. By the time the pre history so it was.
For me it was better to start negotiating with stones."
Good timing again Adam.
Much depends on the election results hopefully reducing fiscal fear.
Just a whisper in your shell-like ears: gold is rare, and that (and that alone, if you discount history) makes it valuable as a store of value - just like certain very rare seashells were a store of value to south sea islanders.
But...
Yttrium & praseodymium, europium and neodymium (along with the other 13 rare earth minerals)are even rarer than gold or seashells (in minable quantities, that is) and they are indispensible in such things as oil refining, fibre optics, military radar, missile guidance systems, batteries for electric cars, hydrogen engines, magnates for mobile phones, wind turbines, TV screens etc., etc.
I'm just sayin' y'know?
Those who say there has never been a gold bubble must not have been around in the 1980s, when gold peaked at $800/OZ then proceeded to lose two thirds of its value to less than $300.
you are very ambiguous and ambivalent here... historical charts show up up and away to ??? You repeat what has already happened...2 or 3 times.
We all think we know where the price of gold is going, don't we? I do believe it will continue going up and as long I'm not investing with borrowed money and can sleep at night when a pullback happens, I'll be just fine.
TO MANY GOLD BULLS, I HAVE BEEN ONE TILL NOW, GOLD HAS ONE MORE POP UP, ONE & DONE! TO MANY DOLLAR BEARS,CONTRARIAN NO THATS NOT AN ARMENIAN NAME? IT MEANS BE CAREFUL ALL YOU BULLS YOU MIGHT BE LOOKING UP A DEAD BULLS BUTT BEFORE IT'S OVER. WHEN THE DOLLAR TURNS UP THE PARTYS OVER.PERIOD..........
What bubble? -- US investors need to get their heads out of the dollar box and look at the world market in gold for signs of a bubble...
"While dollar gold rallied 11.3% in just 7 weeks since late August as the USDX plummeted, euro gold is dead flat over this exact span! That’s right, euro gold closed at €980 on August 25th at the USDX’s latest peak and closed at €980 on October 14th at the USDX’s latest interim low. In dollar-neutral terms, the gold price has done absolutely nothing over the past 7 weeks! What we perceive as a rally here in the States is merely a rapid devaluation of the US dollar. Gold is merely holding its own, not soaring." -- Adam Hamilton, CPA, Zeal Research October 22, 2010
It's a most troubleing question. We have hard asset deflation ocurring at the same time we have commodity inflation running rampant, Gold is parked in the commodity column. The commodity column will burst its bubble at some point. Just as the real estate bubble burst in its own time.
No one ever gets in at the bottom or sells at the top, so how about we just say gold and silver will fluctuate. And we buy a little here and there and sell a little here and there. It's helpful to remember the second part of an old polish saying. "Pigs get slaughtered"
There is no Gold Bubble. Gold is real money and is not subject to the same forces as a fiat currency is.
Hi Shane,
I sold some very junior mining stocks and wrote covered calls on the major mining stocks.
I hold a significant amount of bullion and probably will for life.
I have a lot of gold stocks that i expect to turn into gold stacks as time goes on.
But I am prepared for gold to go back to $1,000 or so and will buy it enthusiastically.
FWIW
It doesn't matter what gold trades at. The U.S. posseses the most gold metric tons in the world at 8133 tons. The next closest country is Germany at 3400 tons China has approx. 1000 tons and Russia has approx 568 tons. When the dollar goes down and gold goes up or vice versa, it's a wash. Look, the U.S. has the most gold, and the most guns, so we rule no matter what! Tom
Gold recently has merely held its value, as it has for thousands of years. Just as 100 years ago, an ounce of gold will buy you a good suit. Does that mean suits are a bubble? Neither is gold!
Contrarian said:
"Looking at the poll result I have to say that gold may indeed be bubbling. Many past bubbles no one in the general media/public would beleive they were bubbling, fundamentally or technically."
The poll participants here are not representative of "general media/public".
I think a man-in-the-street poll would reveal a much higher % who would vote gold is in a bubble and you would also find very few amongst them who owned any investment gold or yet wanted to, especially compared to enthusiasm seen for tech equities before tech wreck or for flipping houses a few years ago. However, they may ask you if you know a local cash-for-gold outfit so they can go sell some more gold jewelry quick before the bubble fully bursts!
This is so not a bubble, especially with so many fin talking heads always cautioning and implying it is, where everybody would then be lining up around the block at their local coin shops to quickly buy some before it goes even higher tomorrow. Yes, gold is all the talk, but few have actually bought any yet.
as soon as the equity markets have reached their bottom next few weeks and starts the multiple months rally in 2011, gold and silver will no more have the power to rebound to all time highs. as long as the equity rally lasts, gold and silver will be of no major interest for flexible investors. i already made significant profits with several puts on silver and gold, following step by step the down move, starting from their highs :-)), and i plan to continue with this strategy
I think the gold bubble will burst, but not just yet.
It is a perfect storm for gold, people are scared about their wealth disappearing because of currency devaluation, and gold goes up when either the euro or the USD takes a dump. What would be bearish for gold would be stable currencies.
I think that when the politically liberal people in the US start buying gold, watch out for busting gold bubbles. when goldline starts advertizing on CNN, sell it fast.
Another clue, if they put up gold vending machines at starbucks....
I am always tickled by talk of "bubbles". Depending on one's entry point and risk tolerance, I rather thought that is what trailing stops are for.
But on gold, while it may not have an industrial value, unlike, say, silver, I just do not see the combination of fiscal and currency crises and difficulties in the West and industrialized nations combined with increased affluence in the emerging nations putting any real sustained downwards pressure on gold. I would certainly not be buying and selling based on anything faster than a weekly trade triangle.
This week's CFTC report shows a close to record gold speculative long position, options included, of 319,503 lots. There's no way to measure what speculators hold in the spot market or in the form of gold coins. The theory that gold is a hedge against inflation or, more accurately, a hedge against paper money is true as long as the dollar is weak. It can't be denied, however, that the current situation in gold is a frenzy, (Gold ATM machines will soon be available). Personally, I would hedge myself in more realistic vehicles, like Crude, Grains, Softs and industrial metals, as well as, international corporations.
John said:
i am on the front lines and see the enthusiasm and self satisfaction that needs to be punished
So, you now short gold here?
Looking at the poll result I have to say that gold may indeed be bubbling. Many past bubbles no one in the general media/public would beleive they were bubbling, fundamentally or technically.
This is where massive amounts of wealth are shifted to the contrarian investors. However the timing is not yet correct to short it but long term holders should be looking to scale out before the mass public gets in and makes a top.
I think the action in gold for the past 2 years has been pretty similar to how big money played up the crude oil bubble in 2006-2008. That bubble quickly collapsed by 75% but since oil has a multitude of uses (as opposed to gold which is pretty much useless) it has been coming back after the huge correction. The gold move has been smaller in scope and gold probably won´t collapse by as much as crude did. But technically speaking and viewing its fundamentals and the action in other markets I think it could very well drop by 30-40% in the next months.
Sure it is. Just look at this survey over 2x the respondent do not think so very similar to the no it is not a housing bubble, and tech is here to always go up bubble. The only comment I am waiting for is the famous "It is different the time." Then I will be looking @ the etf gold puts.
many people do not fath us dollor
My comment apparently did not go through
Maybe the main point is being missed. It seems increasingly obvious that all the deliberate funny money currency debasement is a prelude to the introduction of a one world currency. SDRs or whatever name the monsters running the show behind the curtain can dream up.
New World Order on the march? You bet! The difficulty with some conspiracy theories is that the are supported by evidence and therefor are not theories...
Gold price goes up, as it always has done, when Real Interest Rates are negative, whether this is due to regulated interest rates in the 70s(so-called Reg Q) or to
the Fed's monetary policy. It doesn't matter if there is inflation or deflation.
At this point in a normal business cyclw the biggest threat to Gold used to be a cyclical rise in inflation and the unavoidable Fed's tightening of monetary policy. This time weak economy and deflationary forces eliminate the possibility of Fed's tightening for as far the eye can see. Therefore Gold will continue to appreciate at its normal pace of 20-25% average price per year for as far as the eye can see.
There is no such a thing as a Gold Bubble. A bubble situation would be realized ONLY if the underlying conditions causing Gold's appreciation would cease to exist and its price would still continue to increase,i.e. for psychological reasons.I've never seen this this kind of situation and and doubt it will ever occur.
Perfect comment. Agree with you 100%!
To answer that question I believe it is fair to ask another question 1st. "Has AU provided a store-of-value over time?" Without going back 5K years, my answer is YES! The Moody's Spot Commodity Index was put together around #1930 with a base of #100. I believe it includes #21 basic commodities,excluding AU & OIL. AU @ that time was fixed @ $20.00. Given yesterday's close near #6000, I'd say that $1320.00 AU is not in a bubble (60 X's $20.00 = $1200.00)
I guess each person will have to decide if a 10% premium for whatever else AU provides is excessive.
As for public participation in gold bullion, I think there is quite a lot. In the UK, I am told, you can buy grams of 99.99 guaranteed gold in vending machines. Cute idea. Silver is in very short supply tho, and the price is increasing relative to gold.
The theoreticaly correct price for gold is the price at which all the world's gold would retire all of the world's debt. i guestimate this to be $60,000. The present price of $2300 is a joke.
The theoreticaly correct price for gold is the price at which all the world's gold would retire all the world's debt. I guestimate that to be $60,000/troy oz.
The theoreticaly correct price for gold is the price at which all the world's gold would retire all the world's debt. I quesstimate this as $60,000 /troy oz. The present price of $1300 is joke.
A very good and accurate analysis.
Can I trade stock with a credit card through this web site?
The yield of the 10-yr US note is near a 50-year low - which would seem to indicate extremely low inflation expectations, clearly bearish for gold.
The dollar index has oscillated between 70 and 90 for the past years and seems to be turning now for the upper range or beyond. Again bearish for gold and indeed other metals and commodities priced in dollar.
When it comes time to pay the tab we have been running for the last 20+ years on the monumental global debt, there will be an unprcedented run to sell hard assets and Gold will take a major hit! Also, the lopsided voting (80% no bubble)in this poll verifies the existence of the Gold bubble.Run fo cover!!!
Considering ONLY AU as a store-of-value(inflation hedge) it is fair to ask "how well has AU performed that function?".
Without going back 5K, I feel that AU as measured by the Moddy's Spot Commodity Index has served us well. That Index dating back to #1930 had a basis of #100. Currently I believe it includes a basket of #21 commodities, excluding AU & OIL. As of 10/21/2010 its closing price was near #6000. 60 X's AU's $20 price back then = $1200. Judge for yourself if a 10% premium for all the other features ascribed to AU is excessive. Not to me...
I enjoyed reading what you had to say. You tell it like it is. Thannk you. Do you write a blog or newsletter?
Sorry; read my earlier comment as "horribly overbought" ...
I cannot believe it when I hear that "paper money is done", that is a bunch of bunk. People who say this use fear to scare people probably because they are long gold. Let's be real if that truly were to happen you do not need gold, you better have plenty of lead. You will need it more. If you really want to see who is driving gold up it is simple. Looking at futures, who excatly is selling gold? Don't forget in futures where there are buyers, you have to have sellers. So when you answer who is sitting on 457,064 contracts short gold futures you will see the market as it really is.
Gold is horribly oversold. Price has stayed above the 200-day MA since Jan. 2009. Currently the 200 MA is about $1200. I expect gold to test that soon. Time will tell if it holds. If it doesn´t then there is strong support in the $930-$1030 area. Sincerely, galdur.
Can i post a Market Club chart here?
Gold moved from about $370 to $720 in the two years from May 2004 till May 2006
It retraced about 50% to $540 in June 2006
Gold moved from about $540 to $1050 in the two years from June 2006 till May 2008
It retraced more than 50% to $700 in October 2008
Gold moved from about $700 to $1370 in the two years from Oct 2008 till Oct 2010
I expect it to retrace about 50% to $1000 in the next month to four months
i am on the front lines and see the enthusiasm and self satisfaction that needs to be punished
I feel the price reflects the traders know. Now traders are outside the main gold market. To complete the pattern price - 110 or even more - is needed. The next move in 1450 to 1550 target price will be. It will bubble prices.
The question of whether gold is a bubble merely reflects where we are in gold's primary uptrend. At some point the following stage will emerge where the question becomes is gold priced in dollars or are dollars priced in gold. When that stage was reached in the late 70's, it became necessary for a Paul Volcker to sacrifice the US economy to save the US Dollar irrespective of the political consequences. Today even Paul Volcker cannot be Paul Volcker and there is no Paul Volcker waiting in the wings. Aurum Victrix.
Here Adam, you've heard it, go ahead share your words of wisdom as you always do.
As long as governments go on using QE to generate inflation then gold and silver will be a winner.Gold is taking a temporary retracement whilst the dollar ateps back , but I see this as a temporary situation and offering a buying opportunity.
Several thoughts. First of all, the original objective for Gold was 1350 and has hit that objective; the Seasonal is to correct into October and rally into November and December. We may be in a corrective state and could be a buy, however, if Gold continues to fail in here, we could see,a healthy retracement with a sell off to 1150 area or even high 800 level????? Granted, the WallyWorld attendants are not talking about Gold in check-out, but at every turn on MSNBC or Bloomberg,there are ads about owning gold coins, cashing in gold jewelry, etc. I believe the Gold tout has been well circulated and we need to be careful in here. Have a great day. 🙂
What's wrong with a bubble? Dot-com bubble, real estate bubble, 80's silver bubble, etc....these were markets that had the best returns of any markets in history. People keep referring to "bubble" like it's a bad thing. They thought George Soros was being contradictory when he said gold was in a bubble and then turned around and bought a bunch of it. He wasn't...he was taking advantage of the bubble as it forms. You just have to know when to get in and out.
And as for the fundamentalists that keep pointing out gold as a hedge in a currency/debt crisis, they are absolutely right. But there's nothing more common in trading than someone who goes broke being absolutely right. That's why there are no rich economists. Over the next few years gold could go to $3000/oz, but very few people will have the fortitude to tough out the 50% corrections along the way...and if you're a trader, why would you WANT to tough these out. It's better to trade them and make a compounding 50% return.
The end of governments printing money will have to happen first before golds run will be over. And that's not going to happen.
You might be right, but these days that's not where the money is anymore, it's in your 401k, IRA, CD's and Pensions, fear more for them being confiscated, not gold that so few own.
BTW, if they ever did try to confiscate gold, mines going to ground for my grandkids and a hopefully freer society in their future.
Ask yourself, if you were magically transported a decade or two into the future and could only take with you either 1 million paper dollars or 750 ozs of gold bullion coins, which would you choose?
Gold bubble talk is hilarious, there's no lines around the corners of coin shops of public eagerly buying, just public selling at cash-for-gold parties.
Want to talk bubbles, let's look at the bond market and the dollar.
The more I hear media financial talking heads go on warning about gold bubbles, the more I know we aren't anywhere near one. It used to bother me to hear them say so, now I just smirk with confirmation that this gold bull has sooo much farther to go, as so few have discovered it... yet.
Why anybody would listen to these commentators that had never told anyone to get any gold/silver over the last decade, while they've gone up 5X's, is beyond my comprehension. Why would anybody think they are suddenly any smarter today to be telling anybody what gold/silver will do next!?!
Now, when they change their tune and go to singing its praises, and especially when Prechter reverses himself with a gold buy recommendation, then I might have to look at spending a few ozs buying some other producing hard assets.
In the meantime, I'll stick with the folks that have been nailing it right for the last decade, like http://www.jsmineset.com and the GATA folks
at http://www.lemetropolecafe.com without whom I'd not have been so resolute to have & hold what I've physically accumulated.
They will be raising rates next yr...sell sell sell, Dollar will come back...
History doesnt repeat....it rhymes. Your gold will be confiscated eventually.
Ask this question from the Lunatic Helicopter Bernanke!
Gold and silver bubble? Only In your wet dreams!
Keep on dreaming!
Paper Money is dead, the sooner it is realized the faster the economies will recover.
with most country's racing to devaluate their $ gold is no where near a bubble
first, how do you borrow you way out of a debt problem? second, the helicopter ben crew are still in loose money policy mode. third, foreclosuregate has now surfaced.
the "bubble" comes in when the public stampedes into gold and silver in mass. public participation is near nill. I expect gold to goto minimum 2200-2500 which all those numbers are is the inflation adjusted number of what gold should already be. however, that could also easily turn into 3000, 4000, 5000.
worry about bubbles when the greeter at chinamart (walmart) is recommending or even talking about gold and all the business publications are posting gold on their front pages.
Gold and Silver are correcting. There is a strong seasonal tendency for them to go down into mid-November
Gold fundamentals are sound. Combine all investment markets and only the tiniest fraction of all invested capital is played in Gold. It has been seriously overbought for some time and will pull back and consolidate for the near term, but until the currency devaluation wars cool down, and some measure of reliability returns to the economy and the markets, gold will still be the one sure way to preserve the value of capital assets.
The fed is indicating yet another round of QE. How could gold possibly be a bubble about to burst? To believe that you'd have to believe that fiat money was about to explode in value in the face of the largest expansion of the money supply the world has ever seen.
Over here in Blightey (UK) Gold has traded pretty much back to the June peak, which gave a nice broad timespan to decide to go short for the summer doldrums and get long in August for the autumn run-up. Outside of the dollar, therefore, Gold has produced nothing more exciting than very tradeable seasonal patterns. Think of the recent run-up as a mirror of the dollar slide and that explains most of the price behaviour. The next move in Gold will therefore be triggered by the next move in the dollar, which at the moment is hesitating in its slide, we could either see a counter-trend rally up to one of the fib. retracement levels (bad for gold), or perhaps a short-lived bear flag (week or two) before the downward slide resumes (good for gold). Either way the dollar is in a long term downtrend so gold will rise over the winter.
There is no other way of Debt default except printing money. Inflate away all your debt problems. Gold price did not go up but Fiat currencies value went down.
gold is not in a bubble as long as governments debauch their currencies gold is becoming an alternate currency.
In this economy, gold's role as a safe haven will not change. The present downturn is just a short-term correction.