Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid-day market update for Thursday, the 4th of April.
FACEBOOK IS COMING OUT WITH A SMARTPHONE - GIVE ME A BREAK!
Is Facebook (FB) becoming irrelevant? Even Facebook said in its annual report back in February 2013 that “younger users” were engaging in other products “as a substitute for Facebook.” I can second that, as my children only use Facebook very occasionally. In fact, teens are really flocking to Twitter, Snapchat, WhatsApp, GroupMe and Kik, real-time messaging services that were born out of the mobile phone revolution. Is it all over for Facebook, or should you be in this stock at all? We will be looking at this market using our Trade Triangle technology to answer that question.
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS CLAIMS JUMP TO A FOUR MONTH HIGH
If the economy is so good, then why do we see unemployment benefits going up? The "keepers of the numbers" are claiming it is just an aberration and that two states just estimated what their numbers were going to be. Not sure we buy that message. I believe that the economy is weaker than the government wants to admit. Unemployment over 7%, in my opinion, is the new norm as we move into an informational/IT/robotics economy, where less and less humans are needed to run businesses, factories, warehouses and general operations.
Watch Today's Video Update Here
SOMETHING IS MAKING ME NERVOUS ABOUT THE MARKET
If you watched my midday update yesterday, you could probably tell that I was getting a little bit nervous about this market. It seems the market has been on a "sugar high" and that is causing great concern as artificially inflated markets never hold, they always break the other way. While we don't have our technical Trade Triangles indicating a downturn, I still sense in my gut that something is about to give. Having said that, I really want to wait for confirmation before pulling the trigger on an exit or short sale. We really need to pay attention to what is going on with QE and unemployment here in the States. We also need to watch what Japan is doing, what's going on overseas in Europe, and the continued building of tensions and rhetoric coming out of North Korea.
IT'S A QE WORLD
With the Fed continuing it's QE program to the tune of $85 billion a year, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced today a shocking new program to jump start the Japanese economy and weaken the Yen. New BoJ governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, in his first policy meeting set monetary targets based on the overnight call rate, which is set at a range of zero to 0.1%. The Bank of Japan is now on the same path as the US, the only difference is Japan's 70 trillion annually amount only slightly lower than the Fed's annual expenditures. It is interesting to note that the number one indebted country in the world is the US, followed by Japan. Like the US, these are unorthodox moves and it is no slam dunk that they will work. The new stated goal of the Bank of Japan is to push the inflation rate to 2% and re-inflate the economy. The Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he will do whatever it takes to achieve the new inflation target in two years. Many critics believe that a 2% inflation rate is an overly ambitious target, only time will tell.
CAN SUPER MARIO SAVE EUROPE?
The only way I can see Mario Draghi doing anything to save Europe and the Euro is to join Japan and the States and re-inflate the money supply by aggressively printing more money in the new QE world. I am confident saying that the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, will object strongly to this measure if she stays in power. As Germany went through and still remembers hyperinflation in the 30s, it is beginning to sound like déjà vu all over again. It seems we never learn by the mistakes of our forefathers. Sooner or later this QE world is going to implode and it is not going to be a pretty sight.
3 MARKETS ON THE MOVE:
RED HAT (RHT)
FACEBOOK (FB)
US DOLLAR/JAPANESE YEN (USDJPY)
TENSIONS IN NORTH KOREA GROW
It seems to this observer that things are ratcheting up in North Korea. This is taking the spotlight off Syria and the problems in the Middle East. Far and away the biggest problem is North Korea and Kim Jong Un, their 29 year old leader.
Watch Today's Video Update Here
Potential Chaos Ahead
May 19th – Debt ceiling suspension expire
Europe - slow evaporation - economic risk
North Korea - unknown risk evaluation
The FED - finally throws in the towel
Have a great trading day,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub
Adam appears frequently on the following financial news channels as a guest expert. Click on any cable logo to watch Adam's latest appearance.
I lost my I-Phone/Smartphone over three years ago, never replaced it and is very happy about it. Best and least expensive loss I ever had. I am not about to get zuckered into the latest, personal contact, robbing machine.