Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the April contract are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside after settling last Friday at 1,213 while trading at 1,172 down $22 this Friday afternoon as the monthly unemployment report was construed as bullish sending gold to a 9 week low. The U.S dollar is hitting another contract high up 110 points putting pressure on the precious metals as I'm currently recommending a short position in the mini contract which is $33 for every dollar move while placing your stop above the 10 day high which currently stands 1,223 risking around 50 points or $1800 per contract plus slippage and commission. In my opinion I believe the U.S dollar will continue its bullish trend and therefore should continue putting bearish pressure on gold and silver prices here in the short term as the next level of support is at 1,165 and if that is breached I think that we test the contract low around 1,130 so continue to play this to the downside as the chart structure will start to improve later next week tightening the stop and reducing monetary risk. Many of the commodity and stock markets were lower today due to the fact that United States treasury bonds plummeted this afternoon sending yields higher as now the speculation is that the Federal Reserve will start to raise rates in June which is another pessimistic fundamental indicator towards gold prices.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the May contract are trading below their 20 & 100 day moving average down about $.30 this Friday afternoon trading at 15.85 an ounce settling last Friday at 16.56 down around 70 cents for the trading week hitting a 9 week low as the U.S dollar is sharply higher once again. I am currently recommending a short position in silver in the mini contract which is $10 for every cent while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high around 16.90 risking around a $1.00 or $1,000 per contract plus slippage and commission. The U.S dollar is the reason to blame for silvers weakness in today’s trade as I do believe commodity prices as a whole continue to move lower in the short time as the dollar looks to possibly hit 100 so continue to play this to the downside as the next major level of support is 15.50 which was hit on many different occasions only to rally every single time, however if that’s broken you would have to think that the bear market would resume. The trend is your friend in the commodity markets and the trend is to downside at the current time however if you disagree with my opinion and you think prices are going higher my recommendation would be to buy at today’s price while placing the stop loss below 15.50 risking $.35 or $350 per mini contract plus slippage and commission, however I am currently recommending a short position in silver as prices look to retest contract lows in my opinion.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the April contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside however I have been recommending investors to sit on the sidelines in this market as prices have been in a tight consolidation trading between $48 – $55 for the last five weeks as I’m waiting for another trend to develop. Crude oil futures settled last Friday at 49.76 a barrel while currently trading at 49.70 basically unchanged but currently down $1.00 this Friday as the U.S dollar is up 130 points putting pressure on many of the commodity markets. At the current time there is a struggle between the bulls and bears as deflation is a worldwide concern, however the U.S monthly unemployment number came in very strong which could increase demand especially when you’re starting to enter a strong driving season which can push prices higher however sit on the sidelines and wait for a trend to occur making sure that you risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade as the chart structure currently is outstanding so a breakout is looming in my opinion. Oil prices are consolidating over the last month or so after falling from around $90 and that is understandable as prices could go sideways for several more months but as a trader I want to follow the trend and this trend is mixed at the current time so look at other markets.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Nasdaq 100 Futures

The Nasdaq was sharply lower this Friday afternoon currently trading at 4400 down 50 points as I have been recommending a bullish position for the last month in this market getting stopped out at the 2 week low around the 4400 level as today was very disappointing especially with the fact that the monthly unemployment number was very solid but what occurred was the fact that the U.S treasuries fell out of bed today spooking the commodity and stock markets. The NASDAQ was a successful trade but I was hoping that the trend continued to the upside however sit on the sidelines and look at another market that is about to trend as prices may have topped out here in the short term but overall I’m bullish for the rest of 2015 but when prices hit the 10 day low it’s time to move on and exit. Prices are trading slightly above their 20 day but still far above their 100 day moving average as it looks like the Federal Reserve will start to raise interest rates in June and that’s what sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down nearly 300 points, as the U.S dollar was up over 100 points once again as the jobs number came out very positive adding around 295,000 telling you that the economy is definitely improving but the problem with that is that also means interest rates might start to rise and stock markets never like rising interest rates as prices stalled at the 5,000 in the cash index.
TREND: NEUTRAL
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the May contract are down 7 cents this Friday afternoon in Chicago at 3.93 a bushel after settling last Friday at 3.93 finishing down about $.10 for the trading week still stuck in a trading channel as the trend currently is mixed as I’m currently advising investors to sit on the sidelines as this market remains very choppy as the next key level to the downside stands at 3.79 and if prices break that level I would recommend a short position while placing my stop loss at the 10 day high at 3.96 risking about $.17 or $850 per contract plus slippage and commission. Traders are keeping a close eye on next week’s USDA crop report as the U.S dollar is up 130 points putting pressure on the commodity markets as I think that’s going to continue in the short-term as weather conditions will start to come into the forefront as planting season is right around the corner despite the fact that we are having record low temperatures once again in the Chicagoland area but April is right around the corner and will create high volatile as prices will have large swings on a daily basis so make sure that you trade the proper amount of contracts before entering. Estimates of planted acres in 2015 are around 88 million acres producing around 13.6 billion bushels which is 600 million bushels more than last year and 500 million more than 2013 so we will not have a record corn crop this year as it seems to be bleeding back into the soybean market which is down once again so keep an eye on 3.79 as that’s the key breakout to the downside.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the May contract are trading below their 20 & 100 day moving average hitting a contract low this week after settling last Friday at 5.13 while currently trading up around 3 cents at 4.83 a bushel as I have been recommending a short position from around the 5.10 level and if you took that trade place your stop above the 10 day high around 5.19 risking around 40 cents or $2,000 per contract plus slippage and commission. The grain market looks vulnerable to the downside in my opinion as the U.S dollar is putting pressure on many commodities so play this to the downside and take advantage of any price rally while always maintaining the proper risk management of 2% of your account balance on any given trade as lower prices are ahead with the next level of support around 4.50 a bushel. I also have been recommending a short position in the May Oat contract and I’m very disappointed to say that we were stopped out a couple of days back as I thought prices would continue to go lower especially with wheat prices hitting another contract low but as a trader when you are stopped out you must move on and look for another market that’s beginning to trend. Traders are keeping an eye on the next crop report which is next week and should send volatility back into this market but I still believe harvest pressure will continue to push prices lower in the short-term as the chart structure will also improve later next week so I continue to be a seller.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 13.77 while settling this Friday afternoon at 13.44 finishing down about 30 points for the trading week as I have been recommending a short position when prices broke 14.37 and if you took the original trade place your stop loss at the 10 day high which currently stands at 14.35 risking around 90 points or $1,000 per contract plus commission and slippage. Sugar futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a five-year low as the Brazilian REAL hit its lowest level since 2004 and that’s what is pressuring anything Brazil currently grown in Brazil such as sugar, coffee, orange juice, and soybeans as the trend is your friend and I think lower prices are ahead and if you took the original recommendation I want you to give me a call because we need to come up with some type of strategy to add more contracts to this position as I think a special situation is to the downside and as long as the risk parameter meets criteria as well as the risk reward situation I think in the next several months prices could trade possibly as low as 10.00 a pound.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Japanese Yen Futures

The Japanese Yen is trading below its 20 & 100 day moving average hitting a 3 month low currently trading at 8261 as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 8400 and I continue to remain bearish & if you took the original trade place your stop at the 10 day high which currently stands at 8431 risking around 170 points or $2,100 per contract plus commission and slippage as the chart structure still remains solid. Prices broke major support at 8300 in today’s trade as the next major level of support is the contract low around 82.00 as I believe that we test that level next week so continue to play this to the downside as the U.S dollar is up over 100 points as nobody wants to own any currencies other than the U.S dollar as this trend is getting stronger on a monthly basis. The main problem with the Japanese and Euro currencies is quantitative easing continues to put pressure on those markets and that’s exactly what their governments are trying to do just like the United States did when we were doing quantitative easing so the fundamentals are still intact for a lower Yen so continue to play this to the downside.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 140.50 while settling this Friday at 139.90 up 485 points this Friday in New York but down slightly for the trading week with high volatility as I have been recommending a short position when prices broke the 160 level and if you took that trade place your stop at the 10 day high which stands in Monday’s trade at 151.50 risking around 1200 points or $4,500 per contract plus slippage and commission. Prices traded below 130 during the trading week as I still remain bearish prices as the Brazilian REAL hit an 11 year low pressuring coffee prices as well as the fact that there has been excellent weather in 2015 unlike what happened last year when key coffee growing regions suffered one of its worst droughts in Brazil but this year was a different story as the commodity markets still look very weak in my opinion. The chart structure in the coffee market will start to improve on a daily basis as prices are not as oversold as they were last week but I look for another retest between 125 – 130 as I don’t think a bottom has been created.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMRPOVING

Should You Add To Your Losing Trades?

This rule is extremely important and I witness it being abused constantly creating tremendous loses that are sometimes difficult to come back from. Never add to a losing position because if the position continues to go against you and now you have added even more contracts which are all losing money your account will suffer loses much more than 2% and in some case adding positions and never getting out of a losing trade has wiped peoples trading accounts down to zero because of 1 or 2 bad trades. Remember always play for another day you will have losing trades and the good traders manage losses and move on to the next possible trade.