Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,158 an ounce while currently trading at 1,137 down about $20 for the week hitting a five-year low as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 1,170 and if you took the original recommendation place your stop loss at the 10 day high which was lowered to 1,170 as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis. Gold prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as prices look to head lower as I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I see absolutely no reason to own the precious metals at the current time as deflation is a worldwide problem as the U.S dollar hit a six week high in this week’s trade. Crude oil prices are also continuing their bearish trend which is also pressuring the precious metals and silver is also right near recent lows so continue to play by the rules while taking advantage of any rallies as I would like to add to this trade as I think we will break 1,100 possibly in the next couple of weeks as the trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis as the risk/reward still meets criteria. The stock market is hitting all-time highs once again today as I talked about many times all the interest lays in the equity market and not the precious metals as money flows continue to come out of the metals & into equities as that should continue in 2015 so remain short.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the September contract continued their bearish momentum settling last Friday in New York at 15.48 an ounce while currently trading at 14.80 down about $.70 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position from 15.80 and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 15.90 as the chart structure will not improve for several more trading days as silver prices have hit a five-year low. Silver futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average with a possible retest of last week’s low around 14.62 in the cards and if that level is broken I think there could be a washout to the downside as there’s no reason to own the precious metals at the current time as the U.S dollar hit a six week high. Platinum prices have cracked $1,000 which has not happened in over five years as the dollar continues to put pressure on gold and silver prices here in the short-term as deflation is a worldwide problem not inflation so continue to take advantage of any rallies will placing the proper stop loss as I think lower prices are still ahead despite this weeks 70 cent decline.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the August contract settled last Friday at 52.74 a barrel while currently trading at 50.78 down about $2 for the trading week hitting a four month low while still trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I’ve been recommending a short position for six weeks and if you took that trade the 10 day stop has been lowered to 53.90 as the chart structure has improved tremendously. Oil prices retreated this week due to the fact that of the Iranian deal which should put more oil onto the market down the road as 49 is major support and if that is broken you could have sharply lower prices ahead as oversupply issues still remain as the commodity markets still look weak due to the fact of a very strong U.S dollar which hit a six week high in this week’s trade. The precious metals continue to make new lows as well as generally speaking metal prices and energy prices go hand-in-hand in the same direction and that direction is to the downside so continue to place the proper stop loss as this has been an outstanding trade over the course of time as are patience were tested but the path of least resistance is the successful way to trade in my opinion.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Live Cattle Futures

Live cattle futures in the December contract are trading below their 20 day but still slightly above their 100 day moving average as 151 has been extremely difficult to break as I’ve been recommending a short position from the 153 level and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which has been lowered to 155.30. Cattle prices settled last Friday in Chicago at 151.92 while currently trading at 152 basically unchanged for the trading week in an extremely volatile trading week as well as prices continue to fluctuate on a daily basis as prices hit a 8 week low earlier in the week. Many of the commodity markets continue to go lower as the U.S dollar remains high, however with corn prices fluctuating tremendously which is having a major influence on feeder cattle prices which therefore have been supporting live cattle but I’m a technician and the risk/reward and the chart structure met my criteria so remain short and take advantage of any price rally. The chart structure will start to improve in next week’s trade lowering monetary risk as I still think lower prices are ahead as the fundamentals will remain bearish throughout 2015 as historically tight supplies are starting to unwind in my opinion as hog prices certainly continue to move lower as well as cattle seems to be the last of the bullish trends remaining.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE:IMPROVING

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 12.41 a pound while trading at 11.98 down around 40 points for the trading week as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in this market as the trend remains choppy as prices are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive down day still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average, as the down trend line is still intact but I’m waiting for a breakout to occur which would be the contract low of 11.52 to the downside. Many of the commodity markets have been going lower including crude oil which is also putting pressure on sugar prices as sugar is used as a biodiesel but the real problem is the U.S dollar which continues to move higher as I’m not bullish any commodity at this time as oversupply issues and deflation worldwide continues to put pressure on prices. Sometimes the best thing to do is not trade and avoid markets at certain times and that’s what I’m stressing right now as choppiness is difficult and frustrating as there are many other markets that are trending significantly to the downside such as gold, silver, hogs, and several others.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.45 a bushel while currently trading at 4.33 in a highly volatile trading week still near a one year high. I’m currently now recommending a short position in soybeans but at this time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop in corn, however 4.50 seems to be a top level which has been tough to crack as traders are waiting next Monday’s crop progress report which should send high volatility into this market as corn prices will have big fluctuations in the month in July. Corn prices are trading far above its 20 and 100 day moving average consolidating nearly a $1 move higher in three weeks due to the fact of massive rain lowering acres and production as many fields here in Illinois look terrible at the current time, however there are also many fields that are going to produce record crops as I think the damage has already been reflected into prices currently. In my opinion wait for better chart structure to develop which will take another week or so but I do think prices are topping out as I wrote about in my previous blogs I was telling producers to start hedging around 4.25/4.50 as both price levels have been met so don’t get greedy and sell a certain percentage of your livelihood because prices might not stay here for very long in my opinion as many of the commodity markets continue bearish trends as the U.S dollar also continues its secular bullish trend.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Lean Hog Futures

Lean hog futures in the December contract are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside after settling at 59.10 last Friday in Chicago while currently trading at 60.50 up about 150 points for the trading week with extreme volatility as prices traded in Monday’s trade as low as 57.05 then rallied as high as 62.00 but continue to play this to the downside in my opinion. If you took the original recommendation from the 69.00 level place your stop at the 10 day high which currently stands at 64.00 as the chart structure will start to improve later next week as I still see lower prices are ahead as the U.S dollar continues to put pressure on the entire commodity sector as I see no reason to be bullish anything except the S&P 500 at the current time. Cattle prices hit an 8 week low this week catching up to hog prices to the downside as the trend is your friend despite this week’s kickback I still think that we will test 57 next week as expansion has occurred tremendously as I talk to many producers telling me the same thing as theirs is a lot of hogs around so take advantage of any rallies as the chart structure has improved tremendously.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 126.25 a pound while currently trading at 128.30 as I’ve been recommending a short position from around this level as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time as the 10 day high stands at 132.50 risking around 400 points or $1,600 from today’s price levels plus slippage and commission. Coffee prices continue to move lower on a weekly basis as the downtrend line remains intact, however if you have not taken this recommendation I am still promoting a sell order at today’s levels as the risk/reward is highly in your favor as coffee is an extremely large contract as I do think the retest of the contract low around 125 could be in the cards next week. The problem with coffee prices and many of the agricultural markets is that we have too much supply coupled with the fact of an extremely weak Brazilian Real versus the U.S dollar which is pressuring anything that’s grown in the country of Brazil so take a shot at the downside as the risk and the chart structure both meet my criteria to enter into a trade, however if we are stopped out which there is that possibility since the stop is so close look at other markets that are trending and don’t be stubborn.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: OUTSTANDING

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the December contract which is concerned the new crop which will be harvested in Autumn is trading below its 20 day but right at its 100 day moving average telling you that this trend is mixed as prices have gone nowhere in the last 10 months as I have not traded cotton for quite some time as I’m still advising investors to avoid this market and look for markets that are trending. Last Friday prices settled in New York at 65.52 while currently trading at 65.00 as trading in choppy markets is extremely difficult to trade successful in my opinion as prices have very little fundamental news to dictate short-term price action as China holds all the cards in this market as they are the largest importer in the world and hold around 50% of the world stockpiles, as the U.S dollar continues to climb hitting a six week high which is negative prices and commodity prices in general. The weather in the southern part of the United States has improved as grain prices are also starting to fall as the weather situation is starting to produce better looking crops at this point but avoid this market like the plague as I don’t think we will be involved in cotton for quite some time.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR - AVOID

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the November contract are currently unchanged at 10.11 a bushel after settling last Friday in Chicago at 10.22 down slightly for the trading week with high volatility due to weather concerns across the Midwestern part of the United States as we await Monday’s crop progress report. Soybean futures are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines, however I have become bearish due to the fact that all of the other commodities continue to move lower and I think the lower planted acres are already reflected into this market so I would sell at today’s price while placing my stop loss above Tuesday’s high of 10.45 risking $.35 or $1,800 per contract plus slippage and commission as the risk is relatively high at the current time. The U.S dollar continues to move higher as the precious metals, energy prices, and many other commodities continue to move lower and that will pressure grain prices eventually especially soybean prices which have ample worldwide supplies and we still could produce 3.88 billion bushels and if that comes to fruition prices will move much lower come harvest in my opinion, however it’s just a little early in the growing season as we will know much more come the August crop report. When I decide to make a trade it’s always about risk and chart structure and that’s why I’ve been sitting on the sidelines as both did not meet my criteria, however I am putting my toe in the water here and advocate a short position as I think prices have topped out at the 10.45 level.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Trading Theory

If you follow this rule you will have a chance of being successful over the course of time, if you don’t follow this rule you will be sure to lose your money quickly. This rule is simple Do Not OVERTRADE EVER for this is an easy way to lose all your capital quickly. My definition of over trading is risking too much money on any given trade, for example if you are trading a $100,000 dollar account and you place a gold trade today you should limit your loses to 2% of the account value which in this case is $2,000 which allows you to be wrong on many trades and still be around to play another day. In futures and option trading you will have losing trades that is for certain so make sure you manage those losses and move on to another trade.