Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,235 an ounce while currently trading at 1,244 right near a 3 month high as I'm currently sitting on the sidelines as I'm involved in all the other precious metals as you don't want to be too overloaded on one side as that can be dangerous if things fall apart. I am certainly not recommending any type of short position as I do think prices are headed higher & if you do have a futures position on I would place my stop under the 10-day low standing at 1,217 which is about $30 away or $3,000 risk per contract plus slippage & commission. Gold prices are trading above their 20, and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher as the next major level of resistance was hit on February 8th at 1,246, and if that is broken, I think prices will head back up to the 1,300 level where prices were trading right when Trump was elected. Volatility in gold is relatively low despite the fact of all the worldwide turmoil as money flows continue to go into the S&P 500 which hit another all-time high in yesterday's trade, however, gold prices are not selling off, and that is a good sign in my opinion as there is demand for precious metals and equities at present.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the March contract are currently trading at 18.03 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 17.93 up about $0.10 in an extremely low volatile trading manner which is shocking in my opinion as I've been recommending a bullish position around an average price of 17.00 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss under the 10-day low which now has been raised to 17.54 as the chart structure is excellent. Silver prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average is telling you that the short-term trend is higher with the next major level of resistance around the recent high of 18.20 as I will be rolling over into the May contract in today's trade as expiration is coming upon us. At present am also recommending a bullish position in platinum & copper as I do think the precious metals look cheap, but we do need some volatility to enter this market as this trade is putting me to sleep despite the fact that prices continue to move higher. The main problem with the commodities at current time is the fact that the U.S dollar is at 101 and is relentless and will not selloff, but eventually, if we do get some weakness prices could accelerate to the upside and that is what I'm waiting for so remain bullish & place the proper stop loss.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 53.86 a barrel while currently trading at 53.08 down about $0.80 for the trading week still stuck in a 2 month consolidation with very little volatility which is extremely surprising in my opinion as I'm looking at a possible bullish position if prices break the 4 week high of 54.34 as the chart structure is starting to improve tremendously. Prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average is telling you that short-term trend is higher as a breakout is looming in my opinion as the risk/reward will be in your favor in next week's trade. OPEC continues to signal that they may cut production in 2017 and that is propping up prices, however the U.S dollar is still at 101 which continues to be a hindrance to commodity prices and crude oil & if there could be any weakness in the dollar I think you could really start to see the commodity markets accelerate to the upside. Crude prices and a false breakout in last weeks trade when prices traded at a 9 week low only to rally as the next breakout, in my opinion, will be the real one and I think it will be to the upside so keep a close eye on this market for a possible bullish position in next weeks trade.
TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Platnium Futures

Platinum futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at $1,011 an ounce while currently trading at $1,014 up about $3 for the week as I've been recommending a bullish position around the $1,008 level & if you took that trade the 10-day low has been raised to 990 as the chart structure will not improve for another 9 days, so you're going to have to accept the monetary risk at this point. Platinum prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher as I've also recommended bullish positions in silver & copper and I do think gold prices will continue to grind higher. However, I'm not recommending a position in that market. The next major level of resistance is the February 9th high around $1,032 & if that is broken I think prices could head towards $1,100 and expand volatility as that is what we really need at this time across the board as this is not typical of the commodity markets to go this long without some type of craziness happening. The U.S dollar is still around 101 as that is keeping volatility low and a lid on prices here in the short term, but I do believe that demand is coming back for these commodities and that the bullish trends are developing.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.52 bushel while currently trading at 4.47 down about 5 cents experiencing a wild trading session in Thursday's trade selling off around 20 cents from the session high as this market is all based on weather conditions in the Great Plains section of the United States at present. I have been recommending a bullish position from the 4.40 level and if you took that trade, the stop loss has been raised to 4.27 as the chart structure is now outstanding therefore lowering monetary risk as we will be rolling over into the May contract as expiration is upon us. Wheat prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher as record temperatures are reaching the Midwestern part of the United States on this long holiday weekend as we are closed on Monday as we will reopen on Tuesday morning due to the Presidents' Day holiday. The main concern about the wheat is the fact that it is still February and 65° is way too warm as we could still have a cold snap that could adversely affect the quality of the wheat and that's why you're seeing prices somewhat propped up here in recent days so continue to place proper stop loss while always maintaining the risk of 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the May contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 10.70 a bushel while currently trading at 10.47 down about $0.25 over the last 2 trading sessions as I have been sitting on the sidelines advising clients to avoid this market like the plague as prices are headed nowhere in my opinion until spring planting. Soybean prices are trading under their 20-day but still above their 100-day moving average as there is very little fresh fundamental news to dictate short-term price action until the next USDA crop report which will state how many acres will be planted in 2017 with rumors around 90 million which could produce 4.8 billion bushels which would be an all-time record as the fundamentals remain bearish. At present, I'm recommending bullish positions in corn and wheat to the upside. However, the soybeans have no trend & trading in choppy markets is extremely frustrating and extremely difficult to make money so avoid this commodity. Harvest is in full swing in South America as they will produce another excellent crop once again which will also bring more supply onto the market continuing to limit gains to the upside in my opinion.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 169.90 while currently trading at 175.00 up about 500 points for the trading week as I have been sitting on the sidelines in this market as prices may be in the midst of bottoming. Prices bottomed out around the 160 level about 3 weeks ago as prices are now at a 2 week high looking a breakout above the 4 week high around 179 as I will be looking at a bullish position. However, the chart structure needs to improve as that will take another 4/5 days as the monetary risk is too high to enter at this point. Juice prices are now trading above its 20-day moving average for the 1st time in months, but still below their 100-day as this market has been in a bearish trend over the last 3 months. Orange juice is now exiting their extremely volatile winter season as a frost can occur in the state of Florida sending prices sharply higher very quickly, however spring is around the bend as now this market needs demand to start pushing prices higher as trading is all about risk and the risk/reward will be in your favor soon.
TREND: MIXED - HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Live Cattle Futures

Live cattle futures in the April contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 114.82 while currently trading at 114.80 unchanged for the trading week as I tried to sell this market at the 117 level on February 7th as prices traded as high as 116.65, but I was unable as I'm still sitting on the sidelines looking at entering into a short position as the price gap on the daily chart still has not been filled which makes me nervous. Cattle prices are right near an 8 week low as the chart structure is starting to improve as volatility has slowed down in cattle and many of the other commodities at present as I'm not sure why, but I do think volatility across the board will expand tremendously as we enter the summer months. Cattle prices are trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that short-term trend is lower as we still have ample supplies as this market topped out around the 120 level so keep a close eye on this market as I'm looking to sell a rally, therefore, lowering the monetary risk.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Trading Theory

If you follow this rule you will have a chance of being successful over the course of time, if you don’t follow this rule you will be sure to lose your money quickly. This rule is simple Do Not OVERTRADE EVER for this is an easy way to lose all your capital quickly. My definition of over trading is risking too much money on any given trade, for example if you are trading a $100,000 dollar account and you place a gold trade today you should limit your loses to 2% of the account value which in this case is $2,000 which allows you to be wrong on many trades and still be around to play another day. In futures and option trading you will have losing trades that is for certain so make sure you manage those losses and move on to another trade.