Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the April contract is trading lower for the 4th consecutive trading session after settling last Friday in New York at 1,258 an ounce while currently trading at 1,224 down about $35 for the trading week as I was not involved in the gold market, however I was involved in platinum, silver, and the copper market as gold prices pushed the whole complex to recent lows. Gold prices are now trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower as I've been involved in the precious metals for the last 2 months getting stopped out this week across the board except in copper which is still hanging in there by the skin of our teeth which was very disappointing in my opinion as the U.S dollar continues to put pressure on commodities. Gold prices have now hit a 2 week low and it is time to move on if you did have a bullish position as the tide has turned, but I will sit on the sidelines & wait for the chart structure to improve as my head is still spinning with disappointment.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 18.40 an ounce while currently trading at 17.73 down nearly $0.70 for the trading week and it was all in Thursday's trade as I've been recommending a bullish position over the last 2 months getting stopped out around the 17.70 level in a very disappointing trade in my opinion. Silver prices are now trading under their 20-day & right at their 100-day moving average as prices are at a 3 week low as I'm now sitting on the sidelines as my head is still spinning as I can't believe what happened in yesterday's trade but it is time to move on. Volatility in silver was incredibly low with $0.05-$0.10 trading days weeks and then suddenly a 75 cent down day and that's what sometimes can occur as prices had to attend a low as we moved on and probably will not be involved in this market for some time because the chart structure for yesterday's trading action is my only recommendation in the precious metals as I'm still in copper which I've also been in for 2 months and have fallen asleep at the wheel on that trade as volatility has vanished.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Platinum Futures

Platinum futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at $1,028 an ounce while currently trading at $988 down about $40 for the trading week as I was recommending a bullish position from around the $1,008 level getting stopped out around the 985 area in a very disappointing trade as yesterday the precious metals fell out of bed. At present, I am also stopped out of the silver market as I have been involved in the precious metals for about 2 months as prices turned on a dime to the downside as platinum is now at a 4 week low. Platinum prices are now trading below their 20 & 100-day moving average telling you the short-term trend is lower as prices topped out in Monday's trade around the $1,046 level as I am now on the sidelines waiting for the chart structure to improve as this was one of the most aggravating trades I can remember as the U.S dollar is to blame.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Lean Hog Futures

Lean hog futures in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 77.82 while now currently trading at 77.00 down about 80 points for the week as I have been recommending a bearish position from around the 77.75 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 80.07 as the chart structure will improve tremendously in next week's trade, therefore, lowering the risk. Hog prices are trading under their 20-day moving average for the 1st time in months, but slightly above their 100-day as major support is around the 76 level & if that is broken I think the bearish trend will accelerate to the downside. Hog prices in my opinion topped out around the 80 level as this has been one of the stronger trends in 2017 as it looks to me that prices are headed lower as supplies are still ample at present as trading is all about risk/reward as that is the only reason why I took the trade as the original risk was around $1,000 per contract plus slippage and commission. Volatility in hogs is relatively low just like many commodities and I don't think that will continue for much longer so continue to place the proper stop loss and stay short.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Oat Futures

Oat futures in the May contract are trading higher by 3 cents currently trading at 2.42 a bushel after settling last Friday at 2.50 lower by around 8 cents for the trading week as I have been recommending a short position from the 2.49 level while placing my stop loss above the 10-day high which stands at 2.54 risking only $250 per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is outstanding at present. Oat prices hit a 4 week low in Monday's trade while peeking out around the 2.60 level in early February as trading is all about risk/reward and you can't ask for a better situation at the current time. Oat prices are now trading under their 20 day but still above their 100-day moving average as this has been in a bullish trend over the last 5 months as I'm also recommending a bearish position in the May soybean contract & corn so play this to the downside in my opinion.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Cocoa Futures

Cocoa futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 1994 while currently trading at 1944 down 50 points for the week continuing its bearish momentum as prices have now hit a 9 year low which is remarkable in my opinion. At present, I'm not involved in cocoa but if you do a short position, I would place your stop loss above the 10-day high which stands at 2034 as an exit strategy as this market remains on the defensive. Cocoa prices are trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower as many of the other soft commodities have been choppy in recent months but cocoa continues to get stronger to the downside on a weekly basis as the chart structure is very solid at present due to the fact of lower volatility. Larger production coming out of the Ivory Coast of West Africa coupled with the fact of lower demand continues to put pressure on this commodity as the US dollar continues to move higher which is negative towards all commodities.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the May contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.70 a bushel while currently trading at 3.80 up $0.10 for the week as I'm now recommending a bearish position from this price level while placing your stop loss above the contract high of 3.87 risking $350 per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is outstanding. At present I am also recommending short positions in oats and in soybeans as I still think the bearish trends will continue corn however is right near a 7 month high and still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average, however, prices on Monday hit a new low and I think we will retest that price level again. Projections of this year's acres are estimated around 90 million which is 4 million less than last year which means we will not produce a record crop as the fundamentals are stronger than in soybeans but the risk/reward is in your favor so take a shot to the downside.
TREND: MIXED - HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the May contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 10.24 a bushel while currently trading at 10.34 up about $0.10 for the trading week as I've been recommending a bearish position around the 10.48 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10-day high which now has been lowered to 10.57 as the chart structure is outstanding. The next major level of resistance was this Monday's low of 10.17 and if that is broken I think the bearish trend will continue towards the $10 level as prices are near a 7 week low as the fundamentals in this commodity remain bearish as massive planting will occur once again in 2017 possibly producing a massive record crop. Soybean prices are still trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average is telling you that the trend is lower as the U.S dollar continues to put pressure on many of the agricultural markets as the volatility will certainly pick up as spring planting is around the corner. At the current time, I'm also recommending a bearish position in oats as I do think lower prices are ahead, so continue to stay short in my opinion.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 19.81 a pound while currently trading at 19.70 basically unchanged for the trading week still right near an 8 week low as I've been sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure did not meet my criteria to enter into a short position. The true breakout to the downside occurred last Friday at 19.90 and if you are short a futures contract, I would place your stop loss above the 10-day high which still stands at 20.94 as the chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. Sugar prices are trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower with the next major level of support at 19.10 & if that is broken I think prices could test the 18.00 level which was hit in December 2016 as the trend still remains lower as the volatility has come to a crawl this week. At present, I do not have any trade recommendations in the soft commodities as I was stopped out of some of the precious metals in yesterday's debacle as I am waiting for new trends to develop.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 146.25 while currently trading at 143.80 a pound down about 250 points for the trading week right near an 8 week low as I am currently not involved as I am waiting for better chart structure to develop plus a true trend to occur. Coffee prices have been very choppy over the last several months as well as many of the other soft commodities, so I will be patient as I still think higher prices are ahead as the deflationary markets are behind us. The next major level of support is between 135/140 as the volatility remains relatively low at present as current growing conditions in the country of Brazil have seen better precipitation as it looks like a solid crop will be produced. The problem with coffee & many of the other sectors is the fact that the U.S dollar is extremely strong and that is keeping the lid on many prices despite the fact of worldwide growth coming, however, I do think the giant bearish trends are over with, but there are very few trends at the current time which has been very frustrating.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Trading Theory

If you follow this rule you will have a chance of being successful over the course of time, if you don’t follow this rule you will be sure to lose your money quickly. This rule is simple Do Not OVERTRADE EVER for this is an easy way to lose all your capital quickly. My definition of over trading is risking too much money on any given trade, for example if you are trading a $100,000 dollar account and you place a gold trade today you should limit your loses to 2% of the account value which in this case is $2,000 which allows you to be wrong on many trades and still be around to play another day. In futures and option trading you will have losing trades that is for certain so make sure you manage those losses and move on to another trade.