Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,256 an ounce while currently trading at 1,243 down about $13 for the trading week. I'm currently not involved in this market, but I do think lower prices are ahead despite the fact that the U.S dollar was down about 150 points this week, but was still unable to lend any support to gold prices. Gold is still trading below its 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower, if you are short a futures contract place the stop loss at the 10-day high which stands at 1,260. The chart structure is solid with the next level of support at 1,235, and if that is broken, I think we could retest the 1,200 level rather quickly. I do not have any precious metal recommendations. I still believe that they remain weak except for copper prices which have broken out to the upside. Gold remains relatively nonvolatile over the last several weeks, and we need some fresh fundamental news such as interest rate hikes or global geopolitical problems to start pushing prices in either direction.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the September contract are currently trading at 16.65 an ounce unchanged this Friday afternoon after settling last Friday in New York at 16.70 unchanged for the week with extremely low volatility. Prices have nothing fundamentally speaking to push prices up or down at present. Silver is still trading below it's 20 and 100-day moving average as this trend remains to the downside despite the U.S dollar being down about 150 points which help support silver prices, but this market remains weak as there's very little demand despite historically low prices. The next major level support is 16.40 and if that is broken prices could retest the May 9th low of 16.12. The commodity markets remain weak despite small rallies across the board. The only exception is the wheat market which is being propelled by exceptional droughts in the Dakotas sending massive volatility into that market. Silver prices have remained extremely choppy in 2017 as we have been trading between 16/18 for many months so I'd avoid this market in my opinion & look at other markets that are beginning to trend with higher volatility.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the August contract have traded higher for the 7th consecutive trading session are currently at 45.34 after settling last Friday in New York at 43.01 a barrel up about $2.30 for the trading week right at a 2 week high. I have not been involved in crude oil for quite some time. The energy sector had a positive week with the U.S dollar down around 150 points helping support prices, and crude is now trading above its 20-day moving average for the 1st time in awhile, but still below its 100-day and this trend remains mixed so avoid this sector. Oil prices bottomed out on June 21st around 42.05, and I'm still not bullish the energy sector. I still think lower prices are ahead as U.S rig counts continue to increase on a weekly basis as the U.S will become a net exporter which means we will rely less on Mideast oil which is a great thing for U.S security and a great thing for prices. Gasoline and heating oil which are byproducts of crude oil also have rallied this week, and they remain very bearish as gas prices at the pump for the Fourth of July weekend are the lowest in 12 years. I paid a $1.96 just the other day.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Dow Jones Futures

The Dow Jones in the September contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 21,339 while currently trading at 21,280. I was recommending a bullish position from late May from around the 21,000 level getting stopped out in Thursday's trade around the 21,220 area as prices have hit a three-week low. I will now sit on the sidelines & wait for another trend to develop. The volatility in the stock market certainly has increased over the last several days especially the NASDAQ 100 which was down 170 points at one time in Thursday's trade. Prices are now trading right at their 20-day but still above their 100-day moving average as the trend is mixed. Rotation is the primary cause of the volatility as banking stocks continue to rise as money is coming out of the tech sector and I remain bullish longer-term, but when prices hit a two-week low, it is time to move on and reevaluate your situation. This was a successful trade, but prices petered out here in the last couple of weeks as the dog days of summer are at hand.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Soybean Futures

Soybean meal futures in the December contract were sharply higher Friday afternoon after reacting positively to the USDA crop report and was up over $10 a ton at 3.1020. I have been recommending a bearish position from the 300 level and if you took the trade place the stop loss slightly above today's high of 314.10 and make it a GTC order which means that the stop loss stays at that level no matter what. Soybean prices are now trading above their 20-day but still below their 100-day moving average as prices were up over $0.30. The grain market has caught fire as wheat prices move sharply higher due to an exceptional drought in the Dakotas which is pushing everything higher in the short-term. Wheat prices are entirely different from corn, soybean meal, and soybeans. However, when you rally this substantially over the course of a week, it pushes up all prices so continue to place the stop at 314.10. Hopefully, lower prices come about in Monday's trade as growing conditions in the Midwestern part of the United States are still exceptional and should produce a near-record crop
TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the October contract are trading sharply higher for the 2nd consecutive trading session after settling last Friday in New York at 13.17 a pound while currently trading at 13.71 hitting a 2 week high. If you do have a short position, my exit strategy would be to place the stop at the 10-day high which stands at 13.89 on a closing basis. Sugar prices cracked the 14 level in last night's trade & is now trading above its 20-day but still below its 100-day moving average as the U.S dollar dropped about 150 points this week helping support many commodity prices which have been going south over the last several months. I'm not involved in sugar as this has been a very solid trend to the downside. However, everything comes to an end as the soft commodities may have bottomed out here in the short term. All of the bad news of high production numbers coming out of Brazil and the weak Brazilian Real have already been factored into the price in my opinion. If you're stopped out in today's trade look at other markets that are beginning to trend as volatility certainly is increasing as the summer months are upon us and historically speaking volatility will increase week to week.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures settled last Friday in New York at 123.00 a pound while currently trading at 126 up about 300 points for the trading week right at a two-week high as a possible spike bottom may have occurred on June 22nd at the 115.50 level. Prices are now trading above their 20-day, but still below their 100-day moving average as this trend remains mixed in my opinion. Coffee has entered their frost season in Brazil and rumors of colder temperatures have pushed up prices in recent days. This market has been bearish over the last several months, but everything comes to an end, and I avoided this market. I wrote about in many previous blogs I was not going to take a short position as I'm still looking at a possible bullish position if prices hit a 4-week high as the chart structure is solid. My only soft commodity recommendation is a bearish position in the cotton market as traders await the highly anticipated USDA crop report which will be released at 11 o'clock today. It will certainly send high volatility across the board so avoid this market and look at other scenarios with a better risk/reward scenario. I still think coffee prices remain choppy over the next several weeks.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Trading Theory

If you follow this rule you will have a chance of being successful over the course of time, if you don’t follow this rule you will be sure to lose your money quickly. This rule is simple Do Not OVERTRADE EVER for this is an easy way to lose all your capital quickly. My definition of over trading is risking too much money on any given trade, for example if you are trading a $100,000 dollar account and you place a gold trade today you should limit your loses to 2% of the account value which in this case is $2,000 which allows you to be wrong on many trades and still be around to play another day. In futures and option trading you will have losing trades that is for certain so make sure you manage those losses and move on to another trade.