Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract is currently trading at 1,187 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 1,219 down about $32 for the week while trading as low as 1,167 in Thursday's trade before profit-taking took place pushing prices back up to today's levels. If you have read any of my previous blogs, you understand that I am bearish all of the precious metals across the board. If you are short, place the stop loss above the 10-day high which now stands at 1,226, however, the chart structure will not improve for another four trading sessions as I still believe we will retest major support around the 1,125 level in the coming weeks ahead. The U.S dollar is down about 30 points today trading lower for the 2nd consecutive session, but that remains in a bullish trend as that has been the main culprit for gold prices coupled with the fact that there is very weak demand and very little interest at the current time. Presently I am also recommending a bullish S&P 500 trade which is unchanged today but remains strong as money flows continue to go into U.S. equities & out of the precious metals. I see no reason to own gold and no reason to try and bottom fish and take a bullish position at this time as that would be counter-trend trading which is very dangerous in the long run. Silver prices this week also hit a contract low & remains weak as that is also putting pressure on gold as these trends are getting stronger on a weekly basis and I still think there is one more leg to the downside ahead.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.29 an ounce while currently trading at 14.67 down over $0.60 for the week hitting a 2 1/2 year low as the precious metals across the board took a beating due to a strong U.S dollar which is right near a 13 month high. Silver prices are trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is clearly to the downside. If you have read any of my previous blogs, you understand that I've been bearish the precious metals across the board as I still see weakness in the short term and if you are short I would recommend you stay short as I think prices will retest the $14 level soon. The U.S stock market is higher once again today as that gravy train continues to the upside as there's very little interest in owning silver at the current time as I'm certainly not recommending any bullish trade even though historically speaking prices look very cheap as eventually, silver prices will bottom out. Volatility is starting to kick up as we experienced a $0.60 sell-off in Wednesday's trade once we cracked the critical $15 level as there is the possibility that we can retest the December 14th, 2015 low of 13.63 in the coming weeks ahead as the commodity markets across the board remain weak. If you take a look at the monthly chart, the downtrend line remains intact as the only bullish news at this point is the possibility of oversold conditions if you look at the stochastics or the RSI oscillator.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: IMCREASING

Dollar Index Futures

The U.S. dollar in the September contract is currently trading lower by 36 points at 96.17 reversing some of the gains that we witnessed over the last couple of weeks as the dollar is still trading at a 13 month high as the trend remains strong in my opinion. Weakness in the Turkish Lira coupled with the fact of several emerging market currencies which have utterly collapsed over the last week is sending money flows into the U.S. dollar as a haven & as I have written about in many previous blogs, I do believe the dollar will break the 100 level in the coming weeks ahead. If you are long a futures contract place the stop loss under the 10-day low which stands at 94.81 as the chart structure is not great due to the recent run-up in price, however if you are not involved wait for some pullback, therefore, lowering the monetary risk as the chart structure will improve in five days. The U.S. dollar is trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average as clearly the trend is higher as I see no reason to own any European currencies at the given time. The United States has the strongest economy in the world, and the strongest currency as the gravy train continues to roll coupled with the fact of extremely low interest rates as the 10-year note is yielding 2.85% as I was stopped out that short recommendation earlier in the trading week. Volatility in the U.S. dollar remains relatively low as we continually grind higher on a weekly basis as that could start to expand due to all the uncertainty at present so stay long as I am certainly not recommending any bearish position.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: LOW

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures in the November contract is currently trading at 155.80 down 600 points for the trading week hitting a 3 ½ month low and now has traded lower 5 out of the last 6 sessions continuing its bearish momentum. Juice prices are trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as it broke support in today's trade. The next level of support is all the way down at the 145 level which is still a 1000 points away so continue to play this to the downside as there is room to run. If you took the original trade which was recommended around the 163.20 level continue to place the stop loss at 170.00, however in Monday's trade that will be lowered to 168.50 as the chart structure will start to improve later next week, therefore, the monetary risk will be reduced tremendously. At present fundamentally and technically speaking juice has nothing bullish at this time as the downtrend line remains intact coupled with the fact that it formed the classic head and shoulders top chart pattern which was created last month at the 170 level so stay short. I will be looking at adding more contracts to the downside on any rally.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.71 a bushel while currently trading at 3.81 up about $0.10 for the trading week reacting positively to the possibility that the U.S & Mexico could come to an agreement on trade coupled with the fact of strong export numbers helping push prices higher. Corn prices were sharply lower last Friday off of the USDA crop report showing that we could produce around 14.6 billion bushels which is another excellent crop also increasing carryover levels as the fundamental picture of corn remains weak at this time. The trend presently is mixed as prices are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average which stands at 3.94 as the volatility remains relatively high as harvest will start in about 4 weeks as the crop is ahead of schedule due to the excellent growing conditions in the Midwestern part of the United States. The U.S. dollar is down about 35 points this afternoon but still hovering right near a 13 month high as the agricultural markets remain very weak. I still see harvest pressure hampering corn in the months to come as I'm not bullish at this time as I still think we will possibly retest the contract low around 3.50 in the coming weeks ahead. I think come 2019 the U.S will have to plant fewer soybeans and corn if we are ever going to have a bullish trend develop as we are awash in supplies at this time as the supply/demand table is out of whack which continues to put pressure on prices in the long term.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the November contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 8.61 a bushel while currently trading at 8.93 up over $0.30 for the trading week. This is because of rumors that China and the United States might come up with a trade agreement later this month coupled with the fact that we also might have a possible NAFTA agreement helping support prices here in the short term. Last Friday the USDA released its crop report stating that we will produce just under 4.6 billion bushels which will be a record crop. Coupled that with the fact that carryover levels are at a historic high of 785 million bushels which is fantastic in my opinion as we have huge supplies at the current time as fundamentally speaking this market remains very bearish. The volatility in soybeans is high at the present time as we were up almost $0.30 in yesterday's trade and we were down over $0.40 last Friday as I'm sitting on the sidelines and if your short a futures contract place the stop loss above the 10-day high standing at 9.14 as the proper exit strategy. Soybean prices are trading right at their 20-day moving average, but still way below their 100-day which stands at 9.62 as the growing season is coming to an end as harvest is around the bend. Argentine farmers are expected to plant a record 5.8 million hectares as traders hope that Brazil will plant a record as well as that has been a significant problem for soybean prices as the world keeps over planting as I'm not recommending any bullish position at this time.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 110.05 a pound while currently trading at 104.15 down about 600 points for the trading week as prices are now trading right near a five year low. If you take a look at the monthly chart, the 100 level is major support and has been touched on multiple occasions and then has rallied significantly off of that critical level, however, if that is broken you are now looking at a 13 year low which is remarkable. In my opinion, as there is nothing bullish about coffee prices at present except for the fact they are becoming historically cheap in my opinion. Coffee prices have now traded lower for the 8th consecutive session while trading under its 20 and 100-day moving average. The trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis as the harvest in the country of Brazil which is the largest producer still has several weeks left as the harvest pressure still could be at hand for the rest of August. The soft commodity markets remain weak across the board as sugar is also right near a ten year low as I am also recommending a short position in orange juice which continues to get squeezed on a daily basis as the agricultural markets remain very weak as it looks like they have another leg down.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: LOW

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the December contract are sharply higher this Friday afternoon in Chicago up $0.19 at 5.81 a bushel after settling last Friday at 5.69 up about $0.12 for the trading week on extremely strong export numbers as this market looks to break the $6 level in my opinion. The wheat market is experiencing high volatility at this point as we consistently have $0.20 swings on a daily basis and that should remain for the rest of this year in my opinion. I think wheat has the highest potential out of the grain sector as terrible growing conditions in northern Europe and concerns about the Russian crop continues to support prices and now mind blowing exports as the fundamental picture, and technical picture for wheat remain strong. Wheat prices are currently trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend has turned higher. However, the chart structure is terrible as we went straight up then straight down and are now headed straight back up. I will wait for a better chart pattern to develop, but I am certainly not recommending any bearish position at this time as the downside is limited. The next major level of resistance is around the 5.90/6.00 level as that could be broken possibly in next weeks trade as there are still concerns about the southern Great Plains in the United States even though we have received some rains over the last several days so look to play this to the upside.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Trading Theory

Trade with the short-term trend, as the saying goes in futures trading the trend is your friend. But sometimes you will be in a market that is trending higher and then has a false breakout to the upside and then suddenly sells off causing you a 2% loss on your equity and you say to yourself that was a bad trade and should I do something different on my next trade.

If it were up to me, I would continue to buy strength and sell weakness because in the long run commodity trading is about percentages of success in the long run, and if you go with the path of least resistance more often than not you will have the probabilities of success on your side. I define a trend as a commodity hitting a 20-day high or low as a trending market if the market is in a consolidation stay away from it and find something that is trending up or down and go in that direction remembering the money management rule of 2% maximum loss if you are wrong.

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Facebook.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone #: 630-408-3325


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There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.