Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the February contract is currently trading at 1,290 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 1,285 up about $5 for the trading week still unable to crack the critical 1,300 level on a closing basis. Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains to the upside. I've been recommending a bullish position from around the 1,252 level and if you took that trade place the stop loss under the 10-day low which now stands at 1,276 as the chart structure is outstanding due to the low volatility. The U.S. dollar hit a TWO month low in this week's trade as that has been supportive gold prices, but for the bullish momentum to continue we have to break the January 4th high of 1,300, and then I think prices could run up to the 1,350 level as there is still strong demand for this commodity at the current time. The Federal Reserve looks like it will pause raising interest rates as that is also a fundamental bullish factor towards gold as I'm also recommending bullish positions in silver and platinum so stay long and continue to place the proper stop loss.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the March contract is currently trading higher by 2 cents at 15.66 an ounce in a very quiet trade this Friday afternoon in New York. The U.S. dollar is slightly higher in today's trade putting a little pressure on prices, however, it is hovering right near a two month low as that has helped push the entire precious metal sector higher over the last month. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 14.83 level, and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the two week low which now stands at 15.00, however in tomorrows trade that will be raised to 15.28 as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis. At the current time, I'm also recommending trades in gold and platinum as palladium is also hitting another all-time high today as demand has come back as money flows have been entering these markets. Silver prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as clearly the trend is to the upside, but for the bullish momentum to continue, we have to break the January 4th high of 15.95 in my opinion as volatility remains remarkably low.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: LOW

Platinum Futures

Platinum futures in the April contract is currently trading at 820 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 827 down about $7 for the trading week consolidating the recent run-up in prices in my opinion. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 816 level, and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 787. However, the chart structure will start to improve in two days therefor lowering the monetary risk. The U.S. dollar has hit a two month low as that has helped push the precious metals up in recent weeks. I also have a bullish recommendation in silver and gold as palladium prices hit another all-time high today as that market looks to move even higher. Platinum prices are still trading above their 20-day, but now below their 100-day moving average, however, I will not second guess as I will keep proper stop loss as I still believe higher prices are ahead. The volatility remains relatively low, and I don't think that situation is going to continue for much longer as historically speaking platinum can have large price swings on a daily basis.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the March contract is currently trading at 104.00 a pound after settling last Friday in New York at 101.60 up about 250 points for the trading week. In my opinion, I believe prices have bottomed out as there are pockets of dryness in the country of Brazil. However, prices have not reacted just yet, but if that situation continues prices could move substantially higher. Fundamentally speaking this commodity remains bearish as we have a 4 ½ year high inventory level of 2.166 billion bags coupled with the fact that they raised the Brazilian crop to 61.7 million bags which would be an all-time high. However, it is a long growing season as that situation could change very quickly. The main reason why I recommended a bullish position was the fact that there was a technical breakout to the upside when prices cracked the 105.30 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the contract low of 98.55 as an exit strategy as the risk/reward are in your favor. Let's see what next week's trade brings as I certainly think the volatility will start to expand as it remains historically extremely low.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Corn Futures

Corn Futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.83 while currently trading at 3.78 down about 5 cents for the trading week as prices sold off sharply in yesterday's trade because Brazil's corn crop estimate was higher than expected. I'm not involved in corn as I think the upside and downside are limited over the next couple of months until we find out what the planted acres will be in 2019. Corn is trading right at its 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend has been mixed, and we've been trading in a $0.20 trading range over the last three months. Eventually, I do think prices will break out to the upside. I think most of the bearish fundamental news has already been reflected in the price. The volatility in corn remains extremely low, and I don't think that's going to change until spring planting so avoid this commodity at the current time and look for other markets with higher potential, and more volatility as we probably will not be involved in this commodity until spring.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: LOW

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures are currently trading at 5.21 a bushel after settling last Friday in Chicago at 5.17 up slightly for the week as prices are still stuck in the mud. I had been recommending a bullish position getting stopped out a couple of weeks ago right at the contract low. I'm sitting on the sidelines waiting for another bullish situation as I do think the downside is very limited at these depressed prices. Wheat is now trading slightly above its 20-day but still below its 100-day moving average which stands at 5.28 as prices have gone nowhere over the last four months as there is very little fresh fundamental news to dictate short-term price action. Ideal weather conditions in the Great Plains part of the United States continues to keep a lid on prices coupled with weak demand so sit on the sidelines and be patient as the chart structure remains excellent due to the fact of very low volatility that we are still experiencing. If you are bullish the wheat market, I would place the stop loss at the contract low which was hit on January 2nd at 5.01 as an exit strategy.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 11.93 while currently trading at 12.71 up about 80 points for the trading week as this market remains extremely choppy. Crude oil prices have traded higher for the last nine trading sessions, and that has helped support sugar which is also used as biodiesel. I had a bearish bias, but at this time this market remains extremely choppy so look at other commodities that are beginning to trend. Sugar prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is higher to mixed as prices are right near major resistance around the 13.00 level. Hot and dry temperatures in South America have also supported prices in the short-term. I think a lot of the commodity markets have bottomed out as the U.S dollar hit a two month low this week as I'm looking at bullish positions not bearish as the downside is very limited. At this time sit on the sidelines and wait for an actual trend to develop as the chart structure remains poor as the risk/reward is not in your favor at this time.
TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: LOW

Soybean Meal Futures

Soybean meal futures settled last Friday in Chicago at 319 while currently trading at 317.50 down slightly for the trading week despite hitting a three month high in Wednesday's session. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 317 level, and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low which now stands at 308 as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis, therefore, the monetary risk also will be reduced. Soybean meal is still trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the trend remains to the upside as estimates of Brazil's crop were higher than expected sending prices sharply lower in yesterday's trade. Hot and dry weather in Brazil has cut production numbers, and if that situation continues, that will push prices higher in my opinion as weather is the main factor at this time. At the current time, this is my only grain recommendation. However, I do believe most of this sector has bottomed out as we need a little flash of bullish news to propel prices higher. The next major level of resistance is between 324 /327, and if that is broken, I think then prices could head significantly higher so stay long and continue to place the proper stop loss as the volatility should also start to expand to the upside.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

Trading Theory

Do You Have A Trading System? This is a very simple rule, and it states that one must have a game plan and use it consistently even during periods of loses which will happen to you over time. Do not suddenly start to risk 5-10% because you have to catch up and get your loses back quickly, stick with the game plan and over time this will help improve your percentages of success. If you have an unproven system that has not been tested, then I would look to paper trade the account until you see success and you are comfortable with loses and daily volatility.+