Gold Futures
Gold futures in the August contract is currently trading at 1,400 hitting a 6 month high after settling last Friday in New York at 1,344 an ounce up over $55 for the trading week all on concerns of a conflict brewing with the country of Iran.
The U.S. dollar has hit a 3 month low as well as helping support prices as the fundamental situation for gold has changed very quickly as strong demand continues to push up prices. I am currently sitting on the sidelines in this market, but as I've written about in previous blogs, I still think gold is going higher as I see no reason to be short.
I have bullish recommendations in silver and Palladium as I'm keeping a close eye on platinum to the upside as the 10-year note hit 1.99% this week hitting a multi-year low as that is extremely supportive towards gold prices.
The next major level of resistance is around the 1,450 area as there is still room to run to the upside as you have to remember the all-time high was hit in September of 2011 above the 1,920 level and if you look at the monthly chart, in my opinion, it looks very bullish.
If you have a futures contract place the stop loss under the 10-day low which stands at 1,325 as an exit strategy, however, that will be raised daily starting next week.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGHER
Silver Futures
Silver futures settled last Friday in New York at 14.80 an ounce while currently trading at 15.32 ending the week on a sour note down about $0.13 for the day, but finishing up over 50 cents for the week as prices are near a 3 month high.
I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 14.93 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the contract low which was touched on May 28th at 14.26 as an exit strategy, however, come next week I will raise that stop therefor lowering the monetary risk. The 10-year note hit 1.99% this week as that is a multi-year low and a positive fundamental factor towards silver and the precious metals as I also have a bullish palladium trade which is higher once again in today's action.
The U.S. dollar is hovering right near a 3 month low as that is also bullish towards silver and the commodities as the tide has turned for this commodity. I think a long bottom is in place and I still think there's a good chance that we will crack the 16 level in the coming weeks ahead as the volatility certainly has increased as well so stay long and continue to place the proper stop loss as I think there is still room to run.
TREND: LOWER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY:
Copper Futures
Copper futures are currently trading right near a 4 week high at 2.7040 a pound after settling last Friday in New York at 2.6295 as I had been recommending a bearish position getting stopped out around the 2.7030 level earlier in the week as now I'm looking at a possible bullish position.
If you take a look at the daily chart, a rounding bottom might be at hand as the 10-year note is yielding 1.99% as that is a fundamental bullish factor towards copper because that should strengthen the housing market.
Copper is now trading above its 20-day but still below their 100-day moving average as the trend is mixed. However, it has broken the downtrend line, and it looks to head higher in my opinion following silver and the rest of the precious metals to the upside.
The U.S dollar is also right near 3 month low as I will be waiting for a possible pullback therefor lowering the monetary risk as the volatility still remains relatively low for such a historically volatile commodity. In trading, you must be nimble as I had been bearish copper for quite some time, but when the tide turns, you must be on alert as this market looks to have finally bottomed out in my opinion.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH
Orange Juice Futures
Orange juice futures in the September contract is currently trading at 103.30 after settling last Friday in New York at 106.30 down 300 points for the week as prices are still hovering right near a 4 week low.
I do not have any soft commodity recommendations as there is the possibility that orange juice prices are bottoming out. We are right at the 50% retracement level from the contract low that was hit at the 94 level and then we went as high as 115 on June 14th, so this could be setting up a bullish situation.
Prices are trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is lower to mixed, but wait for a better chart pattern to develop before entering as this is a choppy trend at the current time.
Generally speaking, we are starting to enter the non-volatile season for orange juice as there is no possible frost that could develop in Florida. However, you still can have hurricanes later this year as that certainly could send a wrench into the closet, but for the current time look for other markets that are beginning to trend and as there are many.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE
Live Cattle Futures
The cattle market in the August contract is trading lower for the 3rd consecutive session after settling last Friday in Chicago at 104.15 while currently trading at 102.75 hitting a fresh contract low in today's trade.
I have been recommending a bearish position from around the 106.30 level and if you took the trade, continue to place the stop loss above the June 12th high of 107.17 as an exit strategy. However, the chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade. Feeder cattle prices are also hitting a fresh contract low today as corn prices remain very strong as higher feed costs, generally speaking, are negative towards feeder cattle prices as the entire livestock sector remains bearish in my opinion.
As I have talked about in many previous blogs, I thought if we broke the critical contract low that we could test the 100 level and I think that will develop in next week's trade as there a still further room to the downside.
One of the trading theories that I adhere to is when a commodity hits a contract low that generally means further contract lows are on the horizon continuing the bearish trend meaning never buy a market that's at a contract low as that is counter-trend trading and dangerous over time so stay short.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.
Corn Futures
Corn futures in the July contract which is considered the old crop and was grown in 2018 settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.53 of bushel while currently trading at 4.47 down about $0.06 for the trading week digesting the recent run-up in prices in my opinion.
Corn prices have stalled out around the 4.50 area for the time being, however you have to remember we have had a 30% rally in 5 weeks as that is a tremendous move as we are awaiting some fresh fundamental news to dictate short-term price action as the rain has become old news having a smaller impact on prices at this time.
Estimates of the crop progress will be completed come Monday as now we will have to await the USDA crop report which will be released in the 2nd week of July as that will undoubtedly state how bad or good this crop will be in 2019. I remain bullish as I still think higher prices are ahead, but you're going to have to respect the volatility as we're going to have large price swings daily to make sure you place the proper amount of contracts while risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
The G-20 Summit is next week, and if there is some trade agreement with China that would certainly be bullish the grain market as I still believe production numbers in 2019 are going to be very poor.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH
Palladium Futures
Palladium futures are ending the week on a positive note up $15 at 1,495 after settling last Friday at 1,461 up about $35 for the trading week and traded as high as 1,525 in yesterdays session before profit-taking sent prices lower.
I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 1,388 level, and if you took that trade, the stop loss has now been raised to 1,342, however, in Monday's trade that will climb to the 1,372 level as the chart structure will improve daily, therefore, the monetary risk will be lowered.
The stop loss is still about $15,000 away as that just tells you how crazy of a market this can. Historically speaking, Palladium can be very trendy, and that's precisely what is happening here as we are trading above the 20 and 100-day moving average as I still think we will test all-time highs possibly in next week's trade.
If you're long a futures contract stay long as I see no reason to be short as the entire precious metal sector is bullish except for platinum as gold and silver prices have broken out as that will be supportive towards Palladium as who knows how high prices can go.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH
Sugar Futures
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY:
Soybean Futures
Soybean futures in the November contract which is considered the new crop and is currently being grown in the Midwestern part of the United States settled last Friday in Chicago at 9.23 a bushel while currently trading at 9.33 up slightly for the trading week still hovering near a 3 month high.
My only recommendation is a bullish soybean oil trade, but I do think the soybean complex is going higher at least in the short term. If you are long a futures contract, I would continue to place the stop loss at the 8.75 level as an exit strategy as you're going to have to give this some room. The volatility is high and will become even more violent as summer is now upon us as today the summer solstice arrived, which is the longest day of the year.
Traders going to keep a close eye on Mondays crop progress report as estimates are around 95% complete, but you have to remember just because you planted on June 20th don't expect the same yields if you were planted on May 20th as we still could have many weather problems arise.
For the bullish momentum to continue, we have to break June 18th high of 9.48 & if that does occur I think $10 would be in the cards as I see no reason to be short.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH
Trading Theory
When Is It Time To Sell? In my opinion, if you are long a futures contract and you have lost 2% of your account balance on that trade exit and move on and look at other trends that are beginning as the theory states.
Generally speaking if you long a futures contract I would place the stop loss under the 2 week low which is also the 10-day low as well as an exit strategy as the theory states if a market has been going against you for that time frame that means that you are probably wrong, so it's time to move on.
Successful traders exit losing trades very quickly as its a mathematical certainty that you will have losing trades so you must manage them well as no exit strategy is 100% correct, but that's one that I've been following for many years, and I think it works well.
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
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There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.
