Silver Futures
Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.77 while currently trading at a 16.92 an ounce ending the week on a positive note up over $0.75 as prices have now hit a 2 month high.
I've recommended a bullish position from around the 16.10 level, and if you took that trade, continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low, which stands at 14.76 as an exit strategy. The chart structure will improve in next week's trade as the monetary risk will also be reduced.
Silver prices are now trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average for the 1st time in 3 months. I do believe a true breakout has occurred as it would not surprise me if prices test the contract high of 19.07, which was hit on February 24th in the coming weeks ahead.
The U.S. equity market is starting to look a little vulnerable as we had one of the worst weeks in quite some time. Money flows are entering the precious metals which look very strong, and I still think silver has room to run. Continue to play this to the upside, and if you are not involved, wait for some price retracement before entering.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH
Mexican Peso Futures
The Mexican Peso in the June contract settled last Friday at 4189 while currently trading at 4161 down slightly for the week still stuck in a very tight 8-week consolidation pattern looking to break out to the upside in my opinion. I will be recommending a bullish position if prices close above the 42.21 level while then placing the stop loss at 3918 as the risk would be around $1,600 per contract plus slippage and commission.
If you have read my consolidation theory, it states that the longer the consolidation, the stronger the breakout. I think that's precisely what is starting to occur in this situation, so keep a close eye on this market as we could be involved in next week's trade.
The Peso is trading above its 20-day but still far below its 100-day moving average as this currency follows the oil market. Mexico is a major exporter of crude as now that situation has stabilized as that is helping support the Peso. I will not take a short position.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW
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Live Cattle Futures
Cattle futures in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 94.65 while currently trading at 96.45 up nearly 200 points for the trading week continuing its bullish momentum as prices are right near a 2 month high.
If you have been following my previous blogs, you understand that I have been bullish cattle for quite some time, but I'm not involved as I thought the 76.60 spike bottom would hold as that has come to fruition as I still think prices will crack the 100 level possibly in next week's trade. If you are involved in a futures contract, I would place the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 86.47 as an exit strategy. However, that will improve in next week's trade. Therefore, the monetary risk will be lowered as expiration will soon be upon us as we will have to roll over into the August contract as I still believe higher prices are ahead.
Cattle futures are trading above their 20-day but still below their 100-day moving average standing at the 101.50 level, which is just an eyelash away. This incredibly high volatility will not end anytime soon, so make sure you risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.
Cocoa Futures
Cocoa futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 2400 while currently trading at the same price. There hasn't been much change over the last week or the last couple of weeks because the market is looking for some fresh fundamental news to dictate short-term price action.
I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 2410 low. If you took that trade, continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 2342 as the chart structure is outstandings are standing at the current time in the back of price is really have gone nowhere over the last two weeks.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH
Cotton Futures
Cotton futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 56.27 while currently trading at 58.32 up over 200 points for the trading week as prices have now hit a 2 month high. I have been recommending a bullish position over the last month or so from around the 55.50 level, and if you took that trade, you should place the stop loss under the 2 week low standing at 53.20 as an exit strategy. However, the chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade. Therefore, monetary risk will be reduced substantially.
Volatility in cotton remains relatively low as we continually grind higher in a methodical manner to the upside weekly, but we are starting to enter the hot and dry season of summer, and that certainly will expand the volatility generally speaking to the upside.
Cotton prices are still trading above their 20-day 100-day moving average standing at 62.54, which is about another 8% away, which tells you how bearish this market has been until the last couple of months.
TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
Michael Seery, President
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There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.
