The Energy Information Administration reported that November crude oil production rose by 692,000 barrels per day, averaging 11.124 mmbd, its highest since March. This follows a 438,000 b/d drop in October and a 2 million barrel per day collapse in May. The November 914 figure compares to the EIA’s weekly estimates (interpolated) of 10.910 mmbd, a figure that was 214,000 b/d lower.
The primary cause of the rebound in production was the return of output in the U.S. Gulf Coast. USG production rose by 645,000 b/d from November, and Oklahoma output rose by 29,000 b/d, while New Mexico rose by 19,000 b/d.
Given the huge reduction in May, production dropped by 1.7 mmb/d over the past 12 months. This number only includes crude oil.
The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) figure was 214,000 barrels per day, higher than the weekly data reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR).
The 914 figure was about 114,000 lower than the 11.01 mmbd estimate for that month in the January Short-Term Outlook. This difference is enough to trigger a “rebenchmarking” to EIA’s model in future crude production levels at this time.
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The EIA is projecting that 2021 production will exit the year at 11.33 mmbd. And for 2022, it projects an exit at 11.83 mmbd.
But drilling rigs have risen ten weeks in a row, and the March WTI crude contract has rebounded to $52/bbl.
Conclusions
The unprecedented oil price collapse of 2020 has been erased, and U.S. crude production has responded. It appears. EIA projections for no growth in 2021 will prove to be too low.
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Best,
Robert Boslego
INO.com Contributor - Energies
Disclosure: This contributor does not own any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.
