Robert Boslego Archives - INO.com Trader's Blog

U.S. Crude Oil Production Leveling In June 2021

Posted on September 4, 2021September 3, 2021 by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that June crude oil production dipped by 5,000 barrels per day, averaging 11.307 mmbd. This follows a modest decline in April. In addition, the June 914 figure compares to the EIA’s weekly estimates (interpolated) of 11.141 mmbd, a figure that was 164,000 lower than the actual 914 monthly estimate.

A largest gain was in New Mexico (43,000 b/d), followed by The Gulf of Mexico (18,000 b/d). On the other hand, production in Texas actually decline by 22,000 b/d.

Given the huge reduction in May 2020, production recovered by 865,000 b/d over the past 12 months. This number only includes crude oil. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Oil Production Leveling In June 2021" →

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, August 2021

Posted on August 26, 2021August 30, 2021 by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for August, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely peaked at 3.207 billion in July 2020. In July 2021, it estimated stocks fell by 13 million barrels to end at 2.860 billion, 348 million barrels lower than a year ago.

The EIA estimated global oil production at 97.42 million barrels per day (mmbd) for July, compared to global oil consumption of 98.78 mmbd. That implies an undersupply of 1.15 mmb/d, or 42 million barrels for the month. Given the decrease in OECD stocks, non-OECD stocks are implied to have increased by 29 million barrels.

For 2021, OECD inventories are now projected to draw by net 208 million barrels to 2.819 billion. For 2022 it forecasts that stocks will build by 90 million barrels to end the year at 2.908 billion.

On July 18th, OPEC agreed to:

“Adjust upward their overall production by 0.4 mb/d on a monthly basis starting August 2021 until phasing out the 5.8 mb/d production adjustment, and in December 2021 assess market developments and Participating Countries’ performance.”

The current “reference production” and adjustments levels are detailed in the table below. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, August 2021" →

U.S. Crude Production Rises In May

Posted on August 3, 2021 by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that May crude oil production rose by 80,000 barrels per day, averaging 11.231 mmbd. This follows a modest decline in April. The May 914 figure compares to the EIA’s weekly estimates (interpolated) of 10.955 mmbd, a figure that was 276,000 lower than the actual 914 monthly estimate.

The largest gain was in New Mexico (49,000 b/d), followed by The Gulf of Mexico (29,000 b/d) and North Dakota (26,000 b/d). On the other hand, production in Texas actually declined by 22,000 b/d.

Given the huge reduction in May 2020, production recovered by 1.2 mmb/d over the past 12 months. This number only includes crude oil.

The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) average figure was nearly identical to the weekly data average reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR). Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Rises In May" →

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, July 2021

Posted on July 21, 2021 by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for July, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely peaked at 3.207 billion in July 2020. In June 2021, it estimated stocks fell by 12 million barrels to end at 2.864 billion, 337 million barrels lower than a year ago.

The EIA estimated global oil production at 96.75 million barrels per day (mmbd) for June, compared to global oil consumption of 97.90 mmbd. That implies an undersupply of 1.15 mmb/d, or 34 million barrels for the month. Given the decrease in OECD stocks, non-OECD stocks are implied to have increased by 20 million barrels.

For 2021, OECD inventories are now projected to draw by net 194 million barrels to 2.832 billion. For 2022 it forecasts that stocks will build by 76 million barrels to end the year at 2.908 billion.

The EIA forecast does not incorporate the OPEC+ plan to increase production by 400,000 b/d each month from August to December. The plan was not formally put into place because of an objection by the UAE to obtain a higher quota. All OPEC decisions must be unanimous. However, UAE's energy ministry said on July 14th that there had been significant progress in resolving its standoff with OPEC+ and that a compromise deal is being discussed that will raise the UAE's crude production quota to 3.65 million bpd from about 3.17 mmbd currently.

The current “reference production” and adjustments levels are detailed in the table below. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, July 2021" →

U.S. Crude Production Off In April 2021

Posted on July 1, 2021 by Jeremy Lutz

The Energy Information Administration reported that April crude oil production dipped 19,000 barrels per day, averaging 11.169 mmbd. This follows a gain of 1.415 mmb/d in March as production returned after the freeze in Texas. In addition, the April 914 figure compares to the EIA’s weekly estimates (interpolated) of 10.947 mmbd, a figure that was 222,000 lower than the actual 914 monthly estimate.

A large decline in the Gulf of Mexico (92,000 b/d) caused a dip in U.S. production. However, that drop was largely offset by gains in Colorado (31,000 b/d), Texas (28,000), and New Mexico (17,000).

Given the huge reduction in May 2020, production dropped by 841,000 b/d over the past 12 months. This number only includes crude oil. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Off In April 2021" →