U.S. Crude Oil Production Steady In December

The Energy Information Administration reported that December crude oil production fell by 58,000 barrels per day, averaging 11.063 mmbd. This follows a 682,000 b/d rise in November. The December 914 figure compares to the EIA’s weekly estimates (interpolated) of 11.100 mmbd, a figure that was 37,000 b/d higher.

Crude Oil Production

Drops in production were experienced in New Mexico (42,000 b/d), North Dakota (38,000 b/d), and Texas (34,000 b/d). But output in the US Gulf Coast rose by 70,000 b/d.

Given the huge reduction in May, oil production dropped by 1.7 mmb/d over the past 12 months. This number only includes crude oil. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Oil Production Steady In December"

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, February 2021

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for February, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely peaked at 3.210 billion in July 2020. In January 2021, it estimated stocks dropped by 15 million barrels to end at 3.030 billion, 127 million barrels higher than a year ago.

The EIA estimated global oil production at 93.95 million barrels per day (mmbd) for January, compared to global oil consumption of 93.89 mmbd. That implies an oversupply of 60,000 b/d, or 1.9 million barrels for the month. That implies non-OECD stocks dropped by 17 million barrels.

For 2021, OECD inventories are now projected to draw by net 86 million barrels to 2.959 billion. For 2022 it forecasts that stocks will draw by 24 million barrels to end the year at 2.935 billion.

Oil

The EIA forecast was made incorporates the OPEC+ decision to cut production and exports. According to OPEC’s press release January 5, 2021: Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, February 2021"

U.S. Crude Production Rebounds In November

The Energy Information Administration reported that November crude oil production rose by 692,000 barrels per day, averaging 11.124 mmbd, its highest since March. This follows a 438,000 b/d drop in October and a 2 million barrel per day collapse in May. The November 914 figure compares to the EIA’s weekly estimates (interpolated) of 10.910 mmbd, a figure that was 214,000 b/d lower.

Crude

The primary cause of the rebound in production was the return of output in the U.S. Gulf Coast. USG production rose by 645,000 b/d from November, and Oklahoma output rose by 29,000 b/d, while New Mexico rose by 19,000 b/d. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Rebounds In November"

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, January 2021

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for January, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.802 billion barrels. Stocks peaked at 3.210 billion in July 2020. In December 2020, it estimated stocks dropped by 40 million barrels to end at 3.061 billion, 172 million barrels higher than a year ago.

The EIA estimated global oil production at 93.45 million barrels per day (mmbd) for November, compared to global oil consumption of 95.59 mmbd. That implies an undersupply of 2.14 mmbd or 64 million barrels for the month. About 30 million barrels of the draw for November is attributable to non-OECD stocks.

For 2020, OECD inventories are now projected to build by net 127 million barrels to 3.006 billion. For 2021 it forecasts that stocks will draw by 95 million barrels to end the year at 2.910 billion.

Oil

The EIA forecast was made incorporates the OPEC+ decision to cut production and exports. According to OPEC’s press release on January 5, 2021: Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, January 2021"

U.S. Crude Oil Production Fell In December

According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. oil inventories (excluding SPR) fell by 14.9 million barrels last week to 1.342 billion, and SPR stocks were unchanged last week. Total stocks stand 47 mmb above the rising, rolling 5-year average and about 81.0 mmb higher than a year ago. Comparing total inventories to the pre-glut average (end-2014), stocks are 283 mmb above that average.

Oil

Crude Production

Production averaged 11.0 mmbd last week, unchanged from the prior week. It averaged 11.025 mmbd over the past 4 weeks, off 14.25 % v. a year ago. In the year-to-date, crude production averaged 11.504 mmbd, off 6.5 % v. last year, over 600,000 b/d lower. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Oil Production Fell In December"