Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Wednessday, the 7th of November.
The election is over and one half the country is happy and the other half of the country is unhappy. It's time to move on and focus on the markets and what we do best here at MarketClub, catching the big moves in stocks, futures, Forex and the futures markets.
If we continue down the same economic path of the last four years, stimulus after stimulus, inflation is going to come roaring back in a vengeful way. That is going to be a positive for gold and other raw commodities and real estate.
In regards to all the markets, we are going to rely on our winning Trade Triangles as they will show us the path to profits.
Now, let's go to the markets and see what our Trade Triangles are indicating.
Have a great trading day,
Adam Hewison
Founder & President INO.com and co-founder of MarketClub.com.
I read all the comments and all I can say is WOW what a interesting and diverse group.
Great observation. It's a test of emotional contorl. Key underlying message is follow the markets and all else is nothing but opinion, politics and CDD- (Cognitive Dissonance Disease)
"Follow the markets" is a generalized statement offering nothing to do with the posed question about politics (post election) and impending inflation. There's no indication of any large scale inflation on the horizon. Therefore, educated opinions based on documented history, seers, and honest thought provocking conjecture rule the comment board. Deflation is more appropriate, and should have been the topic of discussion. Also, no one here is saying "don't eat animals" while gorging on meat; CDD, or hypocritical posts are not present.
If you can follow the original message its about the markets and specifically about inflation. In the third paragraph the author (Adam) is projecting forward. The FED has pumped money into the system and its there to provide liquidity to break the dreaded deflation doom loop. Once the dam breaks all that liquidity breaks loose ergo inflation. It is consistent with economic cycles and yes documented history. If it is truly different this time all the economic pontificators can gorge on whatever scraps they can find because they are missing their Keynesian simple rule of saving in the good times called a budget surplus for when the bad deflationary times arrive.
So, I am not seeing it . What do you look for as a signal? E. Boyles designated as Treasury Secretary? If so, I would agree. If someone else, I will short gold short-term at the 1785 level.
I am seeing inflation in food and energy prices while the charts look deflationary. I have concluded that while inflation is quite likely at some point, we are not there. Deflation may come first.
All the printed FED free money is sequestered and not in circulation in the real economy. It is being used by banks for their trading activities and the public companies for their stock buy back programs. If this is not a correct perception, please someone set me straight.
As I watched the election parties on TV, I was impressed by the youthfullness and shallow joy of the crowds.
I saw children who have chosen-
The candy bar that ruins their appetite for a steak dinner.
Buying votes with public money and welfare rather than budget discipline.
Pretences of caring for the middle class while rewarding the crimes of Wall Street gangsters with bailouts.
Cheap character assassination and name calling over honest goals.
Empty emotional appeals instead of managerial and fiscal ability.
A great rush toward debt, public assistance and dependency instead of personal responsibility.
Oratorical style and and glittering generalities over honest statement of goals.
And so all the multitudes of jubiliant children gather out on a frozen lake. No one notices the ice is melting.
Forgive them, they know not what they do.
You must be one of those guys who forecast Romney would win. Your inflation forecast is about as well founded on fact and reason as those were.
Garrett,
If you are addressing me, no I didn't vote for Romney. Possibly my post was over your head, so let me explain it in further detail. After reading cf's comment and Andy's brilliant thread, it's clear to me that there isn't any point in talking about inflation, as there is no perceived inflation by definition. We are in an erosional phase, where it is literally a buyers market; a deflationary period to be certain. The housing market is a good example, as houses are cheap. Of course the poorest of the poor will always suffer inflation attributed by their plight. Then there's meager inflation for food or fuel etc. which always occurs, but these are temporal and most all people can move past it. When there's little demand for durable goods coupled with marginal discretionary funds across the board, there's no inflation and presumably costs will go down to accommodate. That's simple supply and demand logic. Now, to add value to my post, I had no choice but to take the subject one step further to stimulate the topic. To grasp what I have put forth, you would need to educate yourself on the 1913 congressional establishment of both The Federal Reserve, and the creation of a supporting personal income tax. The personal income tax was a clever way for the gov't to help pay down the Fed's interest rate on the money it borrowed. These 2 items have shackeled the American tax payers to this corrupt banking system ever since. This is why we do not need a central bank that creates money out of thin air when we can do it ourselves like JFK had in place. Research Executive Order 11110 if you want to understand the importance of living in a free society.
Now, I will take it another notch higher so as to satisify your desire for inflationary forecasting. Let's say that thru America's many decades of international meddling to include wars, assassinations, covert operations, false flag operations, regime changes, deficits, and sky high national debts--that an emerging, fierce and scientifically advanced foreign confederacy of nations pre-emptively strikes us, inflicting a devestating and catastrophic national defeat. Also, it is deemed that America's cheaper to purge than salvage due to all the misery we have inflicted upon the rest of the world. You could say that what we have done to others, they will do unto us, and to the double. History proves that reckless empires can't last forever, and the US gov't isn't impervious to such an attack. Egypt fell to Assyria, Assyria fell to Babylon, Babylon fell to Persia, Persia fell to Greece, Greece gave way to Rome and Rome disolved. Now, back to the example of America's demise. Let's say post attack, about 1/3rd of us (American's) are left alive to roam the streets, ungoverned, cold and hungry. Inevitably groups of survivors will have amassed a limited number of goods and services that the many other needy survivors will require themselves to sustain life. Here's the wisdom: "A pound of gold for an ounce of wheat". Do you see the inflation? That's an extreme scenario I've unfolded for you, but that's what it takes to make my point clear. I hope you got something out of it this time around.
When is the FED going to be NO MORE? They are neither federal nor have a reserve. They are void of audit, independent world bankers. They are our ruin. It is at the door knocking, can't you hear ii? The FED has been causing America's tragic mess for love of greed for 100 years since they grafted their way back in in 1913. They killed off the last President who printed his own gold backed money in hopes of a debt free and prosperous nation. The FED gives fake $ to the banks at 0% interest, and banks loan to us (if lucky) at a large profit % rate. Why doesn't Wall Street pay down the national debt to $0, and bail out the Post Office? Why? Take a chance Obomba, and do as the 35th president did unless you are afraid of the puppet masters cutting your strings off. Take Ron Paul's advise, and kill The FED before it kills us!!! Stop them, or be stopped by independent foreign powers that govern superior decimating ways that you never imagined. How long do you think this will go on? Your time is up, days numbered. Good riddens, cause of your sorceries upon the unoathed meek. History is not on our side this around unless hope and change turn a new face. What are you going to do about it?
Adam & Jeremy, Interesting comments about the inflation that has been coming for several years and will arrive some time by the end of the month or in 2013-15, 2020, or 2030. Do you think that every month we purchase less overseas-sourced crude oil and sell more domestic-sourced oil and gas and products we may be damping future inflation?
RIP the America that i have known all of my life.
Our god is not a new age god and we will ultimately
be judged for the country we have become,sinful.
I am sad for us...
Can you please explain how inflation is going to "going to come roaring back in a vengeful way" without a considerable increase in consumer demand to get all the "printed credit" into the economy? The FEd has been issuing credit, but nobody is lending it out, so how is inflation going to come roaring back?
Andy you have but 53 days to wait and it will all start.
However I have also read that there have been significant reserves or oil discovered and as a result of this the cash flow into the USA from this oil will make USA awash with money and hopefully pay off most to the accumulated debt.
It has been recorded that as a result of this President Obama will go down as one of the greatest Presidents that the USA has ever had. I will reserve my decision on this.
Check out the usdebtclock and spend some time mousing over the real numbers and where they are from. That should offer you some clues.
I'm aware of all of that. Debt creates deflation, not inflation. To get roaring inflation money has to get into the economy such that demand for goods exceeds supply, thus pushing up prices. We are at least 10 to 15 years away from any such operation, so how does inflation get going without it?
I've never found anyone who can explain how an economy saddled with record debt, a declining labor force and massive downsizing by 80+ million boomers is going to avoid roaring deflation.
Deflation causes folks to wait for a cheaper price for goods causing a doom loop. No money, then maybe barter. This is not good in the eyes of the Federal Reserve and for government spending. Must have inflation to pay off the debt. How? Tax or kick the can down the road or create value. How to create value? Simplisticly, three ways. Mining, manufacturing or grow food etc.
For a more detailed answer contact your congress person.
Hypocrite..how can you have inflation when we have a global economy and every country is print money…. Please stop with your bull