Gold ... game on!

17 thoughts on “Gold ... game on!”

1. Hi Adam,

   I must first say that I am very appreciative of the services you offer to people out there (who aren't paying members of market club) on a complimentary basis (I know I've told you this before too) - it is very admirable to offer such gifts to people! But I feel I do need to say something about this dispute between you and Daniel on here.

   With respect to the video that Daniel is referencing - the one from October 5th - I understand what you're saying Adam in that the video is dated as October 2, 2009 - however, the video was only posted on the site on October 5th. So, it was only available for people to hear the information on October 5th - despite the video being made on the 2nd. And I think this is the issue that Daniel is speaking to. Here is the information - with the date of the posting - that I've just copied off the site:

   3 Potential Mega Trades In Q4
   October 5, 2009 · By Adam · Filed Under Trading Videos · 52 Comments

   And as you can see Adam, the video was indeed only available to people on October 5th - as Daniel has indicated.

   I just think there is some miscommunication going on between you and Daniel and I wanted to try and help to clear things up about this video date issue. I'm not meaning to offend in any way.

   Thanks for "listening" Adam!

   Eve

   1. Eve,

      Thanks for your input.

      Adam

2. Don't worry Adam, that previous poster is an idiot. You never claimed to be a psychic and know that exact day of the low. In my book you're pretty damn close. Thanks to you I have money ready and waiting the side line and bought near the low. That idiot should be thankful you'd even provided him with the move. Some people are never grateful. Thank you Adam for your insight.

3. Adam,

   I don't disagree with anything you just wrote in your response. But nothing you just wrote was contrary to the facts i presented in my first comment. I invited you to correct anything I might have gotten wrong or missed, but you have offered nothing but straw dummy arguments (e.g., who said anything about predicting the precise day of a cycle low? nobody.) and irrelevant information about how you've been bullish on gold for a long time (who cares? nobody said you weren't bullish on gold.).

   You suggest that maybe I'm unclear about what you were predicting, but I have written exactly what you predicted and you have not corrected any errors. You said you were emphasizing time frame more than price level. Even granting you this, you were wrong about both! You raise the issue of the Oct 2 test down to 986.50 that I already mentioned in my comment. Nothing new there.

   You missed this one, Adam, as is obvious from the fact that in your video on Oct 5th you were still calling for a cyclical low in the 970s to occur sometime between Oct 6 and Oct 13. Maybe YOU should look at your past videos to remind yourself of what you were saying just a few days ago.

   You're taking credit for a prediction that you actually missed, a cycle low that passed right under your feet in late September while you were still predicting it was going to happen in the first two weeks of October. Then on Oct 2, the market gave you a little momentary reminder of the cycle low in the mid/high 980s that had already been set a week earlier and you missed it. You did a video on Oct 5th that was still calling for a cycle low in the 970s to occur in the near future (here's a link to that video: http://broadcast.ino.com/education/q4trades/ ).

   Nobody expects you to get all your predictions right. That's a straw dummy. What we expect is that you'll be honest about your record of predictions. You lose credibility when you whitewash the record and exaggerate the accuracy of your past predictions. You lose even more credibility when you miss the opportunity I just gave you to set the record straight and be really honest about what you got right and what you got wrong. You chose instead to throw up a bunch of irrelevant information in an attempt to distract people from the facts that matter.

   Sincerely,

   Daniel

   1. Daniel,

      Thank you for your latest reply.

      While I respect your opinion I suggest you look at the video again. I believe I pointed out the cyclic low period starting on the 1stof October and then clearly stated that I expected gold to skyrocket. In fact they are my exact words.

      Also please note the video in question was shot on the 2nd and not the 5th like you claim. The date is clearly on the MarketClub chart for all to see. (top right hand corner)

      Here is the link for everyone to see and draw their own conclusions.

      http://broadcast.ino.com/education/q4trades/

      As for my honesty and integrity you are way off base on that score. One thing I pride myself on always being honest and straight...period. That is how we run our company and it is how I run my life. . When I am wrong I admit it. See this post.

      http://club.ino.com/trading/2009/07/ok-i-got-it-wrong-but-marketclubs-trade-triangles-got-it-right/

      I also looked up to see if you are a MarketClub member unfortunately as far as I can see you are not. That tells me one thing you have not done your homework on our company and all the educational material we provide to our members.

      We are not advisors. We simple share with our members trading and educational tools that work well in most markets.

      I am not going to say anymore on this subject as the above videos speak for themselves.

      I wish you all the best.

      Adam

4. Hello Adam:
   I love your videos and blogs. I am pretty much a novice trader and thus, did miss the upsurge. I kept watching and waiting for it to bottom out and then I was going to buy. That being said, you're probably wondering why a person would watch it surge 2 days in a row before figuring out that it must have turned a little early--I'm chalking it up to my inexperience!!!

   For those of us who may not pick up on things as quickly as others, I think it would be very helpful when things go a bit differently than expected to post a quick blog or video stating something along the lines of: it appears the "tide has turned" early and it looks like "now" is the time to take action (for those of us who are a bit of a blockhead...)? I did keep checking to see if there were any updates but didn't find any, so I "sat back on my thumbs" and did nothing!!! (My fault completely--lack of experience is a bummer!)

   I do have a question now with regards to "gold" -- Your recent video suggests a good buy point for those of us who missed it would be between 1030-1024. I know you can't predict the market, but since I missed the first "wave", I'd like to get in on the next one if possible. With your years of experience and with the technology indicators that you use to read charts, does it appear that there will be a correction in near future and if you haven't bought in, you should probably wait or do you feel that "now" is as good of time as any to continue to make purchases in the gold sector?

   Thank you for allowing us to comment and ask questions!

   Regards--Daphne Behrmann

   1. Daphne,

      We have a big bull market here, one with lots of energy beneath it. As a rule of thumb when a market is making all time highs it is best to go with it.

      We only have to look back at the crude oil market to see that is true.

      All the best to you.

      Adam

5. To be fair...In my short time as a Market Club Member, you have been consistently bullish on the overall trend in gold. The micro timing of this last head fake, where the daily Trade Triangles were bouncing like a ping-pong ball, was very confusing. There was even a recent weekly Trade Triangle in spot gold to the downside. Your earlier analysis of the longer term trend in gold(thru early 2010) had me buying a position in "gld". Unfortunately, my stops were set too tight (even your chart analysis called for tight stops); just below the last dip as resistance. Of course the market just barely tested that resistance and stopped me out. It was hard to re-enter the trade as the market looked to be trending sideways, before exploding to new highs. I see now that if I had looked at the weekly chart(time frame) I would have given my stops more room (weekly didn't break down), and thus would be shouting from the rooftops about your great analysis. I will patiently wait and hope for a pullback to re-enter my gold position. If these markets were easy....we'd all be drinking mint juleps and toasting the high life.

   To further complicate things....The chart for spot gold was much more volatile than the chart for "gld". "gld" held it's trend and the trade triangles were much more consistent (never registering a weekly downturn). It's a learning process.

   Scott

6. Dear Adam,

   I live in Switzerland. On the 27th September I watched your video, and the MACD for gold bullion in CHF was bearish. I printed two charts, one from UBS Quotes, and the other from Stockcharts. The latter, daily, was bearish on the MACD too. Even though you did find a time pattern on lows in Gold in your video which looked pretty much convincing at the time, as we all know the trend reverted lately very quickly to the upside with a very strong breakthrough. I did not wait, my guts told me otherwise, and I bought an ounce of gold on the 28th September, at a discount price. It "made my day" until now 😉
   The price of gold bullion at my bank is made of two things: the price of gold, and the USD currency rate. I have little merit on having listened to my guts, since a combined rally in gold and a USD fall would not have made a big difference over here in a day-to-day basis.
   I just felt there was something "in the air"...

   If you ever want to convince me to subscribe, please do so by showing us in your videos how accurate the "triangles" are. Otherwise, with all due respect, making predictions in such times where fundamentals and politics are playing a strong part in stocks and commodities might fool you into discrediting yourself, and your product.
   Offering a free bonus at the end of your latest video is a marketing move a little "too obvious" for my very criticising French education, sorry.

   I have very little money invested right now, my means are modest, but I'm "all-in" in gold and silver.
   I will enter the stock market again only when the main trend will have reverted, after the next crash in stocks (I am allowing myself to do this foolish forecast). Then, it is likely that markets will move sideways or maybe even further to a distant new low. During those times of uncertainty I will need a powerful tool to give me the right timing for trading. Is your product the tool I need?

   Thank you, and every success to you too!

   Regards, Diego.

   1. Diego,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      You may want to take a look at our Trade Triangle and how they have trading gold. You can see it here:

      http://club.ino.com/trading/2009/07/q2-results-for-marketclubs-trade-triangle-technology/

      All the best,
      Adam

7. Daniel,

   Thank you for your feedback. Cycles tend to contract and expand as the market ebbs an flows. You can never say with 100% certainty that a cycle is going to make a low on an exact day ...there is always a window of opportunity.

   I seem to recall in the video that I mentioned that these were time frames that we were looking at for gold to make a low. Perhaps it was unclear to you that the time frames were more important than the price itself.

   If you look at October 2, this is one day later than we set to start looking for a cycle low in gold. That day gold traded down to 986.50, this was within .08 cents of the low rates seen earlier. The fact that the market bounced so dramatically that day was a strong indication that we were putting in the low.

   Now I'm the first to admit that I'm not smart enough to buy every bottom and sell every top, nobody is in this business. Our Trade Triangle technology kicked in and bought gold at $1024. We are now looking for this market to move higher.

   If you take the time to look at some of our earlier gold videos you can see that we were very bullish on gold because of a large energy field that was building in this market. I believe we got that right.

   All the best,
   Adam

   1. Adam,

      You "cyclical" analysis of Gold was spot on. The individual "questioning" your analysis fails in his own observations by being too "black & white" in his own analysis. Tehnical analysis is a very "grey" subject as there are no absolutes, and "past performance is never a guarantee of future performance".

      Your chart video analysis was very good in that you suggested a "window" for a low in Gold around the dates in October given. The move lower in Gold on October 2, and the hard bounce that followed, "confirmed" the low in Gold the last week in September.

      Gold was a no brainer buy that day for a number of reasons, the least of which was technical. The commercials were unable to drill the price inspite of the horrific non-farm payrolls numbers. They have had much success doing this in the past.

      I bought Silver at 16.03 20 minutes after the jobs numbers came out. I would be lying if I said your cyclical analysis of Gold did not influence my decision to buy there. It wasn't the lone reason, but your input helped make my case to buy there.

      Thank you very much for these videos...keep up the great work.

      I write a blog commenting on the Gold and Silver markets:

      http://goldharvest.blogspot.com/

      I posted the link to your cyclical gold video there and the respose was overwhelmingly positive. Thank you from my readers are passed along as well.

      Cordially,

      -greg maurer

8. Adam,

   With all due respect, you were not so accurate in your prediction for a cyclical low in Gold. You called for a low below 980, at the 50% retracement level, to happen in the first two weeks of October, specifically the 1st, 7th, or 13th, based on your averaging of the cyclical periods that have happened this year.

   What actually happened was a cyclical low in the high 980s during the last week of September. Since Sept 29, traders had just one momentary chance to buy gold on a final quick test down to about 986 in the early morning hours of Oct 2, before the NY market opened.

   In your video on Oct 5th, you were still calling for a lower price in Gold to fulfill your prediction, when as it happens Gold had already reached this low 4-6 days earlier. In fact, you did a video on Sept 25th reiterating your previous prediction when in fact Gold had just made its cycle low on that precise day. Traders who followed your advice on the 25th and again on the 5th woke up to the morning of the 6th to see that Gold had rocketed up to about $935, a full $55 higher than the cycle low you were still predicting as of the previous day.

   Fortunately, I did my own analysis and did not follow your advice. But I think many others may have listened to you and other analysts who on the 5th were still calling for further weakness in Gold before the big breakout.

   If I've missed something in this account, please correct the record. If I've got this right, then I think you should not be taking credit for calling the cyclical low when in fact you missed it.

9. Hi Adam, any thoughts on the silver market? It's had some big movement this week, though it's still a MarketClub red down weekly triangle. Would be curious to know your view on it.

   1. Jabalong,

      I am focusing all my attention on gold. Silver is often described as "poor mans gold" no offense, but you go with the winners and markets that are making all time historic highs. The winner in this case is gold.

      All the best,
      Adam

10. Hi Adam,

    Congratulations on your gold call.

    You have recommended entering if/when we see $1,024-$1,030.

    Would you place the stop at the lowest close for the preceding three days as per your usual practice? Presume you would then trail it up on the same basis.

    Best wishes,

    Patrick Keith

    1. Patrick,

       Thanks for your positive comments.

       I would love to see gold pullback as would thousands of other traders. I would say that you might want to put half a position on and then wait for a pullback which might come from higher levels.

       Three day stop is fine in this case.

       All the best,
       Adam

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