Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the June contract are closing down $18 this Friday afternoon to settle around 1,176 an ounce hitting a 5 week low as I’m now recommending a short position while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,209 risking around $32 or $1,000 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is solid at the current time. Gold futures finished down about $25 for the trading week as all the action is back into the S&P 500 which is hitting all-time highs once again this Friday afternoon as money is coming out all precious metals and into the equity market and that trend is going to continue as I’m recommending a bullish position in the equities at the current time as well. Gold futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend remains to the downside as the chart structure will not improve for another week or so but take advantage of any rallies as I think the risk/reward is your favor as the retest of 1,140 could be developing here in the next several weeks especially if the S&P 500 continues to move to the upside. The U.S dollar continues to consolidate its massive move to the upside and I think that will continue but I don’t see any reason to own gold at the current time.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the July contract are down $.15 this Friday afternoon to close around 15.71 an ounce hitting a 5 week low as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke $16.00 and if you took that trade the chart structure has improved tremendously in the last several days so place your stop at 16.55 risking around $.80 or $800 per mini contract plus slippage and commission. The next level of support in silver is 15.50 and if that’s broken in next week’s trade I would have to think that a longer-term bear market would be in place so continue to play this to the downside as the risk/reward is in your favor in my opinion. Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as it has the classic bear market trend grinding lower on a daily basis as I do think volatility will increase. as volatility is still relatively low as silver is one of the Gold futures are down $18 this afternoon also hitting a 5 month low as the precious metals remain weak as the U.S dollar is still hovering around an 11 year high as I think a secular bullish trend in the dollar will continue for quite some time so continue to play silver to the downside. Silver futures on the daily chart may have created a longer-term head and shoulders top but as a trader I want to focus on risk as the chart structure will not improve until later next week as I see no reason to own the precious metals as all the action is back into the stock market as prices are hitting all-time highs again today.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Oat Futures

Oat futures in the July contract are down 8 cents this Friday afternoon in Chicago trading lower for the 5th consecutive trading session currently at 2.48 a bushel as I’ve been recommending a short position in this market for the last month and if you took the original trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 2.72 as the chart structure is poor at the current time due to the fact that prices have fallen out of bed. Oat prices are hitting a 5 year low as I think lower prices are ahead as prices are still trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside so continue to play the proper stop loss as I think the next level of support could be around 2.25 a bushel which isn’t too far away as the oat market can become extremely volatile as you’ve witnessed in the last several days. The grain market as a whole looks weak in my opinion as excellent planting progress has developed across the Midwestern part of the United States, however the chart structure is very poor at the current time so do not add any more positions until monetary risk can be lowered which could take some time.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Natural Gas Futures

Natural gas futures in the June contract settled last Friday at 2.68 while currently trading at 2.56 down around 12 points for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position in the last several weeks as this trade has basically gone sideways to slightly lower and if you took the original recommendation place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 2.73 risking around 17 points or $425 per mini contract plus slippage and commission and if you are trading the March contract the risk would be $1,700 plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time. Many of the commodity markets were lower this afternoon, however average temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States are dragging natural gas prices lower with the next major resistance around 2.50 so continue to play this to the downside and take advantage of any rallies as the chart structure is outstanding allowing you to place a very tight stop therefore lowering monetary risk as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as prices closed at the weekly low.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the July contract continue to trade in a tight sideways consolidation that has now lasted around 8 weeks as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout to occur which on the upside is the 150 level and down the downside is 135 as prices are currently trading at 142.20 trading slightly higher for the week. As I’ve talked about in my previous blogs the longer consolidation the more powerful breakout can occur so keep a close eye on this market as something could develop on any given day as my hunch is that I think prices are headed higher as we enter the volatile season of May in Brazil which could cause a premature frost but at this point ideal weather conditions are persistent. Coffee prices have dropped from over 200 in late November down to today’s price level as everything comes to an end as a solid bottoming formation is developing in this market so be patient and wait for the breakout to occur because predicting price action in a consolidation is extremely difficult in my opinion. Coffee futures are trading at their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is still mixed.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Soybean Meal Futures

Soybean meal futures in the July contract are currently trading at 314 a ton unchanged for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position in this market for the last several weeks as this trade has gone sideways, however the chart structure has improved dramatically and if you took the original trade or if you are bearish prices you can still sell at today’s price level placing the stop above the 10 day high which currently stands at 319 risking $500 plus slippage and commission. Soybean meal futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside with the next major level of support around 3.08 as volatility certainly will increase in this market as traders are keeping a close eye on weather conditions in the Midwestern part of the United States as soybean planting will start in the month May. As a trader I only try to focus on risk and chart structure and that is the reason that I recommended the trade which met my criteria to enter into a new position.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELENT

Live Cattle Futures

Live cattle futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke the 148 level in the June contract as the volatility is high as prices were limit up in yesterday’s trade while currently trading up 80 more points at 150 as traders are awaiting the cattle on feed report which will be released this afternoon in Chicago. If you took the original recommendation place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 152.45 risking around 350 points or $1,400 from today’s price level plus slippage and commission as prices settled last Friday at 149 while currently trading at 150 slightly higher for the trading week. Feeder cattle prices were up 450 points in yesterday’s trade with extreme volatility as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market but I do believe that cattle prices are topping out and if you’re a producer certainly take advantage of any price rally while hedging a portion of your livelihood which is always smart in my opinion. The cattle market is extremely volatile with many limit up and limit down days so make sure that you place the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as you must have a money management system in place.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the July contract are down about $.10 this Friday afternoon in Chicago currently trading at 9.70 a bushel basically trading unchanged for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position in soybeans for quite some time and if you took the original trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which still stands at 9.83 on a closing basis as prices actually traded as high as 9.85 intraday in yesterday’s trade before settling around 9.80 a bushel as I remain short. The chart structure in soybeans is outstanding at the current time as I’m still recommending a short position as the risk/reward is your favor; however the chart structure will not improve for at least two more weeks so you will have to be patient as I think a possible retest of 9.50 is in the cards. The United States could produce another record crop this year and if ideal weather conditions remain throughout the critical summer months as projections are as high as 4.2 billion bushels coupled with increasing carryover levels so continue to play this to the downside, however if your stopped out it’s time to move on and look at another trend that started to develop. Soybean futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as volatility has been relatively quiet in recent weeks as prices really have gone nowhere; however we are entering the volatile growing season as volatility certainly will increase as we enter the month of May when soybean planting begins.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the July contract are down $.11 in Chicago currently trading at 4.90 while trading unchanged for the week looking to retest recent support at the contract low around $4.82 a bushel as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 5.00 and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 5.06 risking $.16 or $800 from today’s price level plus slippage and commission. The chart structure in this market is outstanding at the current time as prices have basically gone sideways over the last week as the next leg down could be on its way as I think 4.80 will be broken in next week’s trade as improving weather conditions in the Great Plains of the United States is putting pressure back on prices as the grain market as a whole looks very weak in my opinion. Corn Prices are down about $.15 for the trading week while oat prices are hitting a 5 year low also pressuring wheat prices in the short-term as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside so trade with the path of least resistance as the risk/reward is in your favor in my opinion.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract are down 6 cents this Friday afternoon trading down around $.15 for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices broke 3.95 and if you took this trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 4.05 as the risk/reward was highly in your favor in my opinion as the risk at the time trade was only $500 as the chart structure was outstanding. Prices have hit a 7 month low dating back to last October as excellent weather conditions especially in the state of Illinois should allow planting progress to increase tremendously in the next 7 to 10 days as we are off to a good start in the Midwestern part of the United States. Corn futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average with the next major level of support around 3.80 as I think prices are headed lower so continue to sell rallies as the chart structure will not least for another week so be patient and continue to stay short. Estimates of the United States crop this year could be as high as 13.6 billion bushels which will not be a record and actually 500 million bushels less the last year, however the U.S dollar is right near an 11 year high which is causing havoc throughout the grain and commodity markets pushing prices lower as I still think the bearish trend is intact as the real volatility won’t increase until the hot and dry temperatures arrive in June.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

NASDAQ 100 Futures

The NASDAQ 100 in the June contract hit all-time highs as I was recommending a bullish position in yesterday trade while placing your stop loss below the 10 day low at 4352 as today we are up another 40 points currently trading at 4519 higher for the 5th consecutive day as I think we’re off to the races to the upside. The chart structure will not improve in this market for at least another week so your going to have to be patient and keep the proper stop loss as prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as companies like Starbucks, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and many others had excellent earning reports sending prices sharply higher as I think this trend is getting stronger to the upside as who knows how high prices can go. The stock market has a lot a bullish fundamental indicators going its way including low interest rates which will stay extremely low throughout the entire world including the United States for years to come in my opinion , as gold prices are down sharply this afternoon trading lower by another $17 as money is coming on the precious metals & back into the stock market so take advantage of any price dip allowing you to lower monetary risk by tightening up your stop as this market looks to go higher in my opinion.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID