Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the June contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as I have been sitting on the sidelines for the last several months in this market but if have a long futures position I would continue place your stop loss above the 10 day low which stands at 56.00 however in my opinion I think prices have topped out. Strong demand and a very weak U.S dollar have pushed crude oil prices up from a contract low around $46 a barrel to around $63 in Wednesdays trade which has been a remarkable rally in my opinion but I think this market is overextended so I’m still going to remain sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop as this market will remain volatile for the rest of 2015 in my opinion giving you many trading opportunities. Many of the commodity markets rallied in recent weeks as the U.S dollar is hitting a 3 month low which has been very supportive, however with record supplies overhanging that should keep a lid on prices at this point in time but I just don’t know where short term prices are headed so I’m looking at other markets that are beginning to trend.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Gold Futures

Gold futures settled last Friday at 1,174 an ounce while currently trading at 1,185 in a relatively quiet trading week while still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average continuing its lower to choppy trend as the true breakout does not occur on the upside until 1,225 is broken or on the downside at 1,170 as I remain neutral at the current time. The chart structure is starting to improve as gold prices have gone sideways for the last six weeks consolidating the recent down move as the U.S dollar is hitting a three month low and has been supporting gold and silver in recent weeks so be patient and keep an eye on this market at the current time. The monthly unemployment came out strong stating that the unemployment rate is 5.4% sending the stock market sharply higher as I’m surprised that gold futures are not lower this afternoon as the interest rates in the United States have been on the rise sending volatility into the commodity markets as I still see no reason to own gold at the current time but currently this market is stuck in a consolidation and in my opinion it’s very difficult to make money when a trend is not in sight.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Silver Futures

Silver futures are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed after settling last Friday in New York at 16.13 while currently trading at 16.40 an ounce in a quiet trading week as I was stopped out of my short position in last week’s trade as now I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop. The next breakout to the upside my opinion is around 17.40 in the July contract and to the downside is that critical 15.50 level which I’ve talked about in many previous blogs as that level has been tested on several different occasions as the long-term trend is still intact to the downside. The U.S dollar is helping support silver more than gold prices here in the short-term but wait for better chart structure to improve which might take a couple more weeks as I will be sitting on the sidelines waiting for another breakout to occur as my last two recommendations to the downside both ended up being small losing trades. Remember as a trader you must have thick-skin just because the last two trades were losers doesn’t mean I won’t take the next breakout as you must always follow the rules just make sure that you risk 2% or less of your account balance on any given trade.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Oat Futures

Oat futures in the July contract are up 8 cents this Friday afternoon in Chicago after settling last Friday at 2.36 a bushel currently trading at 2.41 as I’ve been recommending a short position for some time if you took that trade the chart structure is improving so place your stop loss above the 10 day high at 2.47 risking 6 more cents or $300 plus commission and slippage. Volatility in the oat market in recent weeks has been enormous with big up and down days percentage wise with the next level of support at the possible double bottom of 2.25 as I’m hoping that level is broken then you can see a washout develop, however prices have been choppy with big volatility so make sure you place the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade. The grain market as a whole has been going lower especially wheat and corn which has helped push oat prices lower as we are off to a good start in early spring 2015, however it’s a very long and volatile growing season so keep your stop at that level and if we are stopped out look at another market but prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average continuing its bearish trend.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the July contract are higher by 300 points this Friday afternoon currently trading at 134.70 a pound after settling last Friday at 134.20 in a very nonvolatile trading week. I have been recommending a short position when prices broke 135 in last week’s trade and if you took that recommendation place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 144 risking around 1000 points or $3,800 per contract plus slippage and commission. The chart structure will improve dramatically next week helping lower monetary risk as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as big production could come out of Brazil which could send prices in my opinion as low as 100 a pound as the Brazilian Real has strengthened against the U.S dollar in recent weeks, but still remains in a long-term bear market which is negative for anything grown in Brazil. The next level of support is Wednesdays low around 130 as many of the soft commodities were higher this Friday afternoon so continue to play this to the downside in my opinion as I think the risk/reward is in your favor.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the July contract are trading higher for the 4th consecutive trading session currently trading at 13.37 a pound after settling last Friday at 12.25 and if prices break 13.50 I would be recommending a bullish position while placing your stop loss below the 10 day low of 12.41 risking 110 points or $1,250 per contract plus slippage and commission. Sugar prices have been very volatile in recent weeks but still stuck in a consolidation over the last two months and if breakout does occur that would be a 9 week high, however the chart structure will not improve for at least another 6 days so you might have to be patient and accept the $1,250 risk here in the short-term. Sugar prices have been in a bearish trend for quite some time bottoming out in early March as I was short this market for quite some time but the tide might be turning despite the fact of a weak Brazilian Real, however crude oil prices have rallied over 30% in the last several months helping support sugar prices which is also used as a biodiesel coupled with a weaker U.S dollar which is hitting a three month low this week. Sugar prices are trading above their 20 day but slightly below their 100 day moving average but the chart structure and the risk reward meets my criteria to enter into a trade so be patient as something might develop as soon as Monday.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 66.61 while currently trading at 65.74 down around 100 points for the trading week as planting is at a normal pace and should increase as the weather is ideal here in the next week as supplies in India and China are large keeping a lid on prices at the current time despite the fact that the U.S dollar hit a three month low in this week which is generally supportive commodity prices. Cotton prices hit a seven month high in last week’s trade before selling off 300 points as I have been sitting on the sidelines in this market for several months as the chart structure is extremely poor with big prices swings as we enter the extremely volatile summer months with a possible drought occurring which generally puts a price premium into the market but look at other markets that are trending as this market has been very difficult to trade over the last several months in my opinion. The United States should not produce a record crop this year as we have about 12% less acres than we did last year with traders keeping an eye on next week’s USDA crop report which should send volatility and short-term price action back into this market.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the July contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 9.65 while currently trading at 9.75 a bushel up about $.10 still in a sideways consolidation over the last several months as I was stopped out in last week’s trade, however I still remain bearish the soybean complex as the weather in the state of Illinois where I’m writing from is outstanding and the 7-10 day forecast has below average temperatures with adequate rain as I think there’s a high probability that 2015 will produce another record crop. Last year the weather was below normal and one of the cooler summers I can remember and we’re off to the same type of start with excellent early planting and ideal weather so if you are a gambler and you want to stick your neck out sell soybeans at today’s price level while maintaining the proper stop loss risking 2% of your account balance as I do think contract lows are in the cards in the next couple weeks as we enter the volatile growing season here in the Midwestern part of the United States. Soybean futures are trading right at their 20 day but still below the 100 day moving average as corn prices hit a new eight month low as I think that will start to pressure soybean prices as the next major level of resistance $9.50 – $9.60 as traders are awaiting next week’s USDA crop report which could send high volatility and short-term price action back into this market but I remain bearish. Remember another 4 billion crop produced could flood the market sending carry over levels to historical highs as there is very little bullish news regarding soybeans in the short term.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the July contract finished up 9 cents to close around 4.81 a bushel rallying about 7 cents for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position when prices cracked $5.00 several weeks ago and if you took that trade the chart structure is outstanding at the current time so place your stop at the 10 day high which stands at 4.88 risking 7 cents or $350 per contract plus slippage and commission from today’s price levels. Wheat prices have gone sideways over the last two weeks after hitting a contract low in Tuesday’s trade before rallying as reports are coming in from Kansas all over the map as one day the crop is good and then the next reports are poor but all that matters to me is that the fact that the stop has been lowered also lowering monetary risk and if we are stopped out let’s move on and look at other markets that are currently trending as we start to enter the volatile summer months in the grain market. Wheat futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside and if you have not taken this trade the risk/reward is in your favor in my opinion as I would still recommend this trade currently. Traders are awaiting next week’s USDA crop report as the next level of resistance is the 10 day high while the next level of support is 4.60 as we were hanging in there by the skin of our teeth.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average after settling last Friday in Chicago at 3.80 a bushel while currently trading at 3.79 down slightly for the trading week as 55% of the crop has already been planted with expectations for this Monday’s crop report as high as 85% as the weather in the Midwestern part of the United States is excellent and especially in the state of Illinois. I have been recommending a short position when corn prices broke 3.95 a bushel and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 3.87 risking around $.8 or $400 from today’s price level plus slippage and commission as the chart structure remains outstanding. Expectations of this year’s crop are around 13.6 billion bushels which is 500 million bushels less than last year, however carry over levels are very large coupled with a strengthening dollar compared to last year as I still remain bearish especially as the weather remains ideal, however it’s an extremely long growing season as we usually do get some type of weather scare to the upside due to hot and dry weather forecasts, however the trend is your friend and the weather forecasts are bearish. Traders await next week’s USDA crop report which definitely can send volatility back into this market but weather is the main focus at this time as we head into the hot and dry summer season which can send volatility into this market as we suffered a drought in 2012 sending prices to a record high of around $8.50 so make sure you place the proper amount of contracts while also placing the proper stop loss.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Trading Theory

This rule is extremely important and I witness it being abused constantly creating tremendous loses that are sometimes difficult to come back from. Never add to a losing position because if the position continues to go against you and now you have added even more contracts which are all losing money your account will suffer loses much more than 2% and in some case adding positions and never getting out of a losing trade has wiped peoples trading accounts down to zero because of 1 or 2 bad trades. Remember always play for another day you will have losing trades and the good traders manage losses and move on to the next possible trade.

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

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There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Facebook.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone #: (800) 615-7649


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