Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,351 an ounce while currently trading at 1,328 down about $23 for the trading week. For the 1st time in over a month prices traded lower and may have topped out in the short-term at 1,362 as profit-taking has ensued pushing prices lower this week. If you are long a futures contract, the chart structure has turned outstanding, and I would place my stop loss as an exit strategy below the 10-day low standing at 1,319 which is just about $10 away. Prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains higher in my opinion. The U.S. dollar traded sideways this week lending little support for gold prices as the story is all about North Korea and if or if they don't send a missile over the weekend sending prices higher or lower. There is still a high demand for physical gold at this time so continue to play this to the upside. Volatility in gold is relatively high as the higher price goes in a commodity, the higher the volatility as well that is why you can see $10/$15 trading ranges on a daily basis. Make sure you place the proper amount of contracts as I think the volatility will even increase throughout 2017.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the December contract is currently trading at 17.80 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 18.12 down about $0.30 for the trading week. If you are long a futures contract, the chart structure has also improved tremendously so place the stop loss as an exit strategy under the 10-day low standing at 17.50 which is just an eyelash away. Silver prices hit recent highs last Friday at 18.29 and have been riding the coattails of gold and the rest of precious metals higher over the last several weeks. Prices are still trading above their 20 & 100-day moving average as the trend remains strong to the upside. Silver prices are dictated just like gold prices as a North Korean/United States conflict to rid that country of their nuclear power could push prices significantly higher. I do think that down the road there is going to have to be some type of military confrontation as there are no negotiations with this country, as I still think historically speaking silver prices look cheap and could be in the low 20s later this year.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the October contract are trading higher for the 5th consecutive session up another $0.15 at 50.04 a barrel. I will be recommending a bullish position if prices crack the August 1st high of 50.51 while then placing the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 47.00 risking around $1,800 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as the energy sector continues its bullish momentum. Crude oil prices are now trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average, and ever since the two major hurricanes hit the United States the energy sector has been pushed higher due to high demand, and I think that will continue as prices are right near a three-month high. The commodity markets, in general, are starting to look strong to the upside as demand is coming back once again across the board and prices are still historically low especially with the U.S. stock market that continues to hit all-time highs. That will eventually bleed into the commodity sectors, in my opinion, so look to play this to the upside as a breakout could even happen in today's trade.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Natural Gas Futures

Natural gas futures in the November contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.96 while currently trading at 3.14 up about 18 points for the week and still stuck in an incredible 14-week consolidation. I'm looking at a bullish position if prices break out at 3.20 to the upside as we enter the extremely volatile autumn and winter months for this commodity. If you have read my previous blogs I will not take a short position as the risk/reward is not your favor to the downside as prices are still historically low as natural gas bottomed out on August 1st at 2.88. I am bullish the energy sector and many of the commodities as well. Natural gas prices are trading above their 20-day moving average & right at their 100-day moving average as this has been in such a long consolidation. As my rule states the longer the consolidation, the stronger the breakout and I do think prices could head substantially higher especially if we get frigid temperatures this winter. The chart structure in gas at present is outstanding and who knows how long this consolidation will last so keep a close eye on this market as we could be involved in next weeks trade especially if some bullish fundamental news comes into the market.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the November contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 9.62 a bushel while currently trading at 9.73 in a very volatile trading week all do to the WASDE crop report releasing estimates of 4.41 billion bushels produced in 2017 United States which is another record crop. The initial reaction pushed soybean prices lower; then prices quickly turned to the upside. We are right near 5-week highs as I will be recommending a bullish position if prices break above 9.77 while then placing the stop under the 10-day low standing at 9.37 risking $0.40 or $2,000 per contract plus slippage and commission. In my opinion, I do believe that grain prices have finally bottomed out as I'm also recommending a bullish position in soybean meal as the U.S. dollar continues its bearish trend coupled with all of the bad news already reflected in my opinion as that's why you saw this market reverse off such a bearish number. The next major level of resistance is around the 10.00/10.25 level which was hit during the summer months. Traders just don't believe that production number because many areas have not rained in nearly six weeks. The combines will start to roll in the next couple of weeks verifying what the actual number will be & in my opinion that will be less than current expectations.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Corn Futures

Corn prices in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.56 a bushel while currently trading at 3.53 down slightly for the trading week. I'm not currently involved in this market, but if you are short a futures contract continue to place the stop loss above the 10-day high at 3.62 as the chart structure is outstanding due to the fact of extremely low volatility at present. Corn prices are still trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the trend is lower as the WASDE crop report was released this week estimating around 14.1 billion bushels which was higher than expected. Around 10% of the U.S crop will be harvested as of this weekend, and we will start to see what the actual yields bring. I am starting to become bullish the grain market as I have a bullish recommendation in soybean meal while looking to buy the wheat market on any type of rally above 4.50. I do think all of the bad news has already been reflected in the price and I think corn will start to follow unleaded gasoline which continues to move higher because corn is used as an ethanol product. The states of Illinois and Iowa have had little rain over the last six weeks, so it will be very interesting to see if the USDA changes its bushels per acre and final estimates for 2017, however that crop report is still four weeks away.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.37 a bushel while currently trading at 4.48 up about $0.11 right near a four-week high. I will be recommending a bullish position if prices close above 4.50 while placing the stop loss under the August 29th low of 4.22 risking around $0.28 or $1,400 plus commission and slippage. If you have read any of my previous blogs, you understand that I'm becoming bullish the grain market & the commodity markets in general as prices look cheap especially with the falling U.S. dollar so look to play this to the upside & place a proper stop loss. If you take a look at the Minneapolis wheat which is lower once again today, I think they will fill the gap between 6.07/6.15 as we are currently trading at 6.23. I think there's a little more room to run in that market. However, I'm recommending a bullish position in the Chicago wheat as they are different products. If prices break the 4.50 level, there is room to run to the upside and the next major level of resistance is at 4.75. This market has been extremely bearish over the last couple of months as it looks to me that prices have bottomed out finally.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday at 14.64 a pound while currently trading at 15.17. I was recommending a bullish position from around the 15.01 level risking around $800 plus slippage and commission. Prices have now hit a six-week high and I think there is the possibility prices could retest the August 1st high around 15.82 & if that is broken, I think the 17/18 level could be reached as sugar prices look cheap in my opinion. A possible double bottom right underneath the 14 level has occurred. The chart structure is excellent at present as the risk/reward is in your favor as the stop loss will improve in 2 days, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. I'm now recommending bullish positions in sugar and cocoa in the soft commodities. I'm bullish the commodities across the board except for the livestock sector at the current time. Volatility in sugar has been relatively low except for today's trade which finished at session highs, but I do think going into the winter months sugar prices certainly will become more volatile. Historically speaking they look very cheap in my opinion especially with high gasoline prices as sugar is used as biodiesel as well.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Cocoa Futures

Cocoa futures in the December contract is currently trading at 2013 after settling last Friday in New York at 1933 up about 80 points for the trading week. I'm now recommending a bullish position from this level while placing the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 1888 risking around $1,300 plus slippage and commission. Cocoa prices are now trading above their 20 & 100-day moving average for the 1st time in a couple of months as the trend has turned bullish due to a very weak U.S. dollar. We are also going into the high demand season for chocolate so play this to the upside while placing the proper stop loss risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade. The next major level of resistance is all the way up around 2100 as there is room to run to the upside. The chart structure will start to improve later next week, therefore, lowering the monetary risk as prices are at a 5-week high. I do believe that the 1800 level as held major support.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID