The Energy Information Administration reported that June crude oil production rebounded by just 424,000 barrels per day, averaging 10.436 mmbd, following a 2 million barrel per day collapse in May. That compares to the EIA’s weekly estimates (interpolated) of 10.900 mmbd, a figure that was nearly 500,000 b/d higher.
Rebounds were largest in Texas (227,000), Oklahoma (102,000) Wyoming (57,000), and New Mexico (51,000). Given the huge reduction in May, production dropped by 1.624 mmb/d over the past 12 months. This number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply fell by an additional 136,000 b/d from a year ago.
The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) figure was 464,000 barrels per day lower than the weekly data reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR).
The June figure was about 700,000 higher than the 9.75 mmbd estimate for that month in the August Short-Term Outlook. This difference is almost certain to trigger a “rebenchmarking” to EIA’s model in future production levels at this time.
The EIA is projecting that 2020 production will exit the year at 10.870 mmbd. And for 2021, it projects an exit at 11.510 mmbd. These rebounds from the June level are in doubt unless oil prices rise through the forecast horizon, but the demand rebound appears to have stalled and crude stocks are 80 million higher than a year ago.
Conclusions
The actual crude oil production based on the EIA-914 survey data for June shows a much lower figure than the EIA’s model has assessed and makes its current estimates and future forecasts look highly suspect. This development implies that the September STEO forecast may still be revised lower than indicated above. And so the outlook is highly uncertain, given the price collapse and unknowns regarding the pandemic and future oil prices.
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Best,
Robert Boslego
INO.com Contributor - Energies
Disclosure: This contributor does not own any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.
