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The Bottom May Be Falling Out -- Here's What To Do

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By: David Sterman of Street Authority

Just a few months ago, all was quiet on the investing front, as most market indices continually broke new all-time highs. But in early August, the quiet was broken by a sudden surge by the dollar against the euro, the yen, Australian dollar and other currencies. At the time, the rallying dollar was merely seen as the beneficiary of a relatively robust U.S. economic growth rate in 2015, at least compared to Europe and Japan.

In hindsight, the currency shifts now appear to be the result of something more concerning: European economic activity has slowed to a crawl, the Chinese government is leaning towards a policy of reform over stimulus -- compounded by brewing political troubles in Hong Kong -- and U.S. investors are finally waking up to the reality that global economic growth will likely be subpar in 2015.

That dim view may also explain why West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil has now slipped below $90 a barrel for the first time in 17 months. Then again, oil prices may be slumping because the dollar is rallying, which always hurts the price of commodities such as oil. Or perhaps it's the fact that too much oil is being produced at a time when global demand is slackening.

In other words, there are now a number of moving parts in play, and the factors behind these recent shifts are likely to persist. How you position your portfolio for the changing market can spell the difference between capital preservation and capital erosion. Continue reading "The Bottom May Be Falling Out -- Here's What To Do" →

The Best Strategy For Reliable Income In A High-Risk Market

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By: Zachary Scheidt of Street Authority

The covered call strategy is a reliable way to generate income in your investment account on a monthly basis. Basically, this investment approach captures income by selling call option contracts, which speculators purchase in hopes that they will generate outsized returns as stock prices advance. By selling call options, we allow these speculators the chance to make large profits, while we collect high-probability income payments.

Here's how the covered call process works: We purchase shares of stock the same way a traditional investor would. We then sell call option contracts against these shares (one for every 100 shares that we own). Selling these contracts obligates us to sell our stock at the option's strike price, provided the market price is above this level before the option expires.

This approach puts a cap on our potential return because regardless of how high the stock trades, we will still be obligated to sell at the strike price. However, since we are receiving a payment from selling the call contract, known as a premium, this income is very reliable and gives us a much higher probability of a positive return on our investment. So the covered call approach sacrifices the potential for a very high return in exchange for a more stable, reliable income stream.

Choosing Which Call Option Contract to Use

Option contracts are available on a monthly (and in many cases, weekly) basis, giving us more choices in terms of which contracts we want to sell. Traditional call option contracts expire on the Saturday after the third Friday of each month.

When implementing a covered call trade in our account, we must choose an expiration date. Typically, the more time left until expiration, the higher the price will be for the call option. This is because the contract is more attractive to buyers, because a longer time horizon allows the stock more time to trade higher, giving the owner a greater chance to profit. From our perspective as call sellers, a higher price means that we receive more income from selling the contract. Continue reading "The Best Strategy For Reliable Income In A High-Risk Market" →

Why There's Upside To Silver's Four-Year Lows

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By: David Sterman of Street Authority

Even as investors were re-embracing stocks in 2010 and 2011, they scored really big gains with one of the hottest commodities in the world: Silver.

The precious metal soared in price from under $20 in August 2010 to nearly $50 an ounce by the next spring. In the hindsight, the silver spike was a classic bubble, fueled by inflation concerns that simply never materialized.

Though few people could have guessed that silver would be capable of a 150% nine-month gain, few also would have predicted that the eventual slump in silver would be so extended. Silver prices fell back below $30 an ounce by the start of 2013, and they've been in freefall ever since. A snapback to 2011 peaks is out of the cards.

You can get a sense of just how painful the silver slump has been by glancing at the performance of key exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The leveraged (2-times and 3-times) funds have been among the market's worst performers.

And when it comes to the silver producers themselves, it appears as if sentiment has utterly collapsed. In recent weeks, industry share prices have slumped another 20%-to-30%. In contrast, the pullback in gold prices and shares of gold miners has not been nearly as severe. Continue reading "Why There's Upside To Silver's Four-Year Lows" →

Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part I)

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By: Elliott Wave International

You may remember that during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, many called into question traditional economic models. Why did the traditional financial models fail?

And more importantly, will they warn us of a new approaching doomsday, should there be one?

That's a crucial question to your financial well-being. This series gives you a well-researched answer. Here is Part I; come back soon for Part II.

The Fundamental Flaw in Conventional Financial and Macroeconomic Theory

By Robert Prechter (excerpted from the monthly Elliott Wave Theorist; published since 1979)

Every time there is a recession, observers grumble about economists' methods. The deeper the recession carries, the louder the grumbling. The reason that widespread complaints occur only in recessions is that economic forecasters as a group never, ever anticipate macroeconomic changes. Their tools don't work, but consumers of their commentary do not notice it until recessions occur, because that is the only time when everyone can see that the methods failed. The rest of the time, when expansion is the norm, no one notices or cares.

The recent/ongoing economic contraction is the deepest since the 1930s, so the complaints about economists' ideas are the most strident since that time. Figure 1 shows how one publication expressed this feeling following four quarters of negative GDP.

Figure 1

Ironically, once the economy begins expanding again, everyone forgets about their old complaints. The media resume quoting economists, despite their flawed methods, and they are once again satisfied that their ideas make perfect sense.

Conventional financial theory relies upon the seemingly sensible ideas of exogenous cause and rational reaction. Papers are packed with discussions of "exogenous shocks," "fundamentals," "input," "catalysts" and "triggers." Stunningly, as far as I can determine, no evidence supports these ideas, as the discussion below will show. Continue reading "Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part I)" →

Can Gold Act as a Safe Haven Again?

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The Gold Report: The World Gold Council, which gets its numbers from Thomson Reuters GFMS, reports that total gold demand in Q2/14 fell by 15% versus the same period in 2013. Furthermore, physical bar and official coin demand were basically cut in half while jewelry demand fell by 217 tons or 30%. What do you make of all of that?

Christos Doulis: Clearly, there has been less enthusiasm for owning gold in recent years. A lot of that has to do with the concept of gold as a safe haven. Six years ago, when the financial crisis was in full swing, gold was $800900/ounce ($800900/oz), but on its way to $1,900/oz in September 2011. The fears associated with that period have largely receded and we're seeing a decrease in both gold investment and jewelry demand, which is often a form of savings in non-Western nations. We're seeing a reaction in demand because the fear component that drives interest in the gold space is down significantly.

TGR: Meanwhile, central bank gold purchases were up 28% year-over-year. Is that the silver lining?

"Cayden Resource Inc. has a quality project that will likely be among the lower-cost producers."

CD: I'm a goldbug in that I think everything that has happened since 2008 is ultimately positive for precious metals prices. We've had a massive money printing exercise. The markets are running because there's so much money and the money has to go somewhere. The fact that central banks are buying gold tells me that goldthe currency between states and central banksis still regarded as an important part of the reserve mix. While the demand for gold among general investors may have decreased during the last few years, the policy makers in the central banks are well aware of the seeds that have been sown in a fiat-currency race to the bottom.

TGR: With the U.S. economy seemingly strengthening, gold seems destined to trend lower in the near term. What's your view? Continue reading "Can Gold Act as a Safe Haven Again?" →