Author: admin

Potential Oil Glut! Raymond James Analyst's Contrarian Forecast

Posted on by admin

The Energy Report: Why are you expecting an oil glut in 2014?

Andrew Coleman: Because of the evolution of North American shale oil plays, we are on track to add about 3 million barrels (3 MMbbl) of new supply over the next five years. Yet we know oil demand has been falling across the developed nations and is still weak coming out of the global financial crisis. Those developments point toward a glut.

TER: Saudi Arabia surprised you last year by cutting production when oil was more than $110 per barrel ($110/bbl). Why would Saudi or other suppliers not do that again?

AC: What hurt production outside the U.S. last year and helped keep the demand side a little more in balance was that Saudi cut 800,000 barrels a day (800 Mbbl/d) in Q4/12, sanctions in Iran reduced exports by about 800 Mbbl/d as well, conflict in Sudan took 300 Mbbl/d offline and the North Sea average was lower by about 130 Mbbl/d. These reductions kept last year's supply more balanced than we thought it would be. Going forward, Saudi's ability or willingness to cut is certainly going to be tested, because by our model the country may need to cut 1.5 million barrels a day (1.5 MMbbl/d), about double what it cut last year. It would have to do that for a longer period of time, given the amount of excess storage that could show up on the global markets.

TER: But, as you just pointed out, Saudi Arabia's cut came in the context of actions by other players. The other players are going to be as unpredictable as they were last year, aren't they? Continue reading "Potential Oil Glut! Raymond James Analyst's Contrarian Forecast" →

3 Factors That Could Soon Derail The Bull Market

Posted on by admin

This article originally appeared on StreetAuthority

These are truly days of wine and roses for stock market investors.

After being knocked down in the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and again during the financial crisis of 2008, long-term investors are being rewarded for their persistence and dedication as stocks surge higher, breaking record after record.

In fact, this bull market turned 4 years old in March and is showing no signs of letting up.

Historically, the average bull market has lasted 4 1/2 years. In and of itself, this means little; for instance, the 1990s bull market lasted nearly seven years without a major correction.

But according to my research, there are three distinct signs that make me think this bull market may be ending soon. Here's what you need to know. Continue reading "3 Factors That Could Soon Derail The Bull Market" →

Has the Gold Bull Market Hit a Snag?

Posted on by admin

The Gold Report: What do you think will happen to interest rates and how will that affect gold?

Tobias Tretter: I don't see interest rates increasing at all right now. The Federal Reserve is giving banks money for 0.25%. The European Central Bank (ECB) has interest rates at 0.75%. That isn't an environment with increasing interest rates. The 10-year U.S. Treasuries are at 1.85%, which is up from 1.4%, but even in 2011 we were above 3%. We are still at the lowest possible levels and I can't imagine how countries, even relatively strong ones like Germany or the United States, will thrive in an environment with increasing interest rates. It would prove too challenging and cause too much pain; therefore, interest rates will be low for a long time.

I do not believe that the end of the gold bull market is here. I agree with former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan that deficit spending is a scheme for the hidden confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious progress, he said. It stands as a protector of property rights. As long as the Fed and the ECB are printing money and as long as things like the recent Cyprus bailout continue to happen, there's absolutely no way for gold to go down for very long. Continue reading "Has the Gold Bull Market Hit a Snag?" →

Investors Versus Traders: A Battle for Oil & Gas Profits

Posted on by admin

The Energy Report: Looking back to your last interview with The Energy Report in November, you seem to have called the bottom in gas prices correctly. What's your view of where things are headed now?

Robert Cooper: We expect a reasonably robust pricing scenario ahead. Here's why: In 2013, we will likely see flat natural gas supply growth; this will be the first year in the last several that this will be the case. The natural gas rig count is at 350, the lowest since 1995. The declining rig count has taken its toll on almost every U.S. shale basin; the only basin that's growing is the Marcellus, and it is growing partly because infrastructure constraints are being alleviated. Unless productivity undergoes another massive step higher, or drilling time is cut in half again, rig count matters as a predictor of natural gas production levels. Natural gas liquids (NGL) prices are weak, and this impacts the ability of explorers and producers (EPs) to reinvest at the same level as even a year ago. This further reduces the probability that capital will be redeployed to dry gas plays.

TER: Your May 9 report shows gas storage 28% lower year over year and 5% below the five-year average. What are the implications of that? Continue reading "Investors Versus Traders: A Battle for Oil & Gas Profits" →

Supercharge Your Portfolio With These Powerful ETFs

Posted on by admin

By: David Goodboy - Street Authority

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have revolutionized the way investors approach the financial markets.

No longer are multiple accounts required to access the majority of indexes, currencies and commodities. Now, with a stock brokerage account, the self-directed investor can trade nearly every popular financial instrument with the click of a mouse.

Not only has access been democratized, but leverage has also undergone a revolution. ETFs that provide two and even three times leverage -- meaning they amplify the moves of an instrument or index by a given multiple, in either direction -- are available on a variety of financial instruments.

I'll never forget my first time using triple-leveraged ETFs. My technical research and fundamentals clearly indicated that the SP 500 index, the broad barometer of U.S. stocks, was overextended on the upside. A big drop was on its way, and it was going to happen soon. Continue reading "Supercharge Your Portfolio With These Powerful ETFs" →