Once again I have to disclaim that at the moment (and for quite some time now) I hold not one single short position, in anything. I am only long US and global stocks. But also managing cash and portfolio balance as usual while feeling as though I’m playing a game of Musical Chairs while the music still plays (nothing nearly as good as Keith’s style, which has always resonated with me beyond most others).
I have to disclaim the bull positioning because book talkers tend to talk about their book. My book is only long insofar as I have equity positions because in a manic up phase I have little interest in eroding the situation with short hedging. Besides, gold stocks are doing that balancing job right now and that balancing act has been working well since June.
Anyway, here is a tweet from a well-followed commentator that is framed so logically and paints the 2008 crash as merely a blip that you or I could do standing on our heads.
Equities… just stay in and prosper! No problem in real-time because the US stock market always comes back… ALWAYS. This is the kind of stuff that appears near tops; like stuff that uses ultra long-term yearly charts in log scale to smooth out the problems.
So the next time this happens, try to forget that it was caused by epic policy distortions within the system the likes of which have been amped up exponentially since and just remember it’s actually a smooth ride assuming the next thing is like the last thing and you live long enough to reap the benefits.
The major U.S. indices were mixed last week, closing on Friday just slightly on either side of unchanged. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 and small-cap Russell 2000 were the strongest performers. As long as the May trend of relative outperformance by these two market-leading indices continues, so should the current broad market advance.
The two strongest market sectors last week were consumer discretionary and utilities. My own asset-flow based metric shows that the biggest increase in sector bet-related assets over the past one-week and one-month periods was in utilities, which supports more upcoming strength in this sector.
A strengthening utilities sector is often driven by declining long-term U.S. interest rates, which we saw last week as the yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined by 9 basis points to 2.53%. This encourages yield-seeking investors to accept more credit risk (via utility stocks) in exchange for potentially higher returns. Therefore, as long as long-term interest rates continue to decline, it should drive more investor assets into utilities and buoy Treasury prices, which move inversely to yields.
This month, the bull market officially celebrated its five-year "anniversary."
For some reason people think that's a big deal. It's almost as if the rally's birthday has led analysts to believe it's finally old enough to get in trouble.
There have been 25 major bull markets throughout U.S. history. Each of those runs has lasted about 900 days (2.5 years) on average -- with the longest spanning almost 14 years (1987 to 2000). The SP 500 gained an average of 103% during each of those periods. Continue reading "Why The Bull Market Isn't Done Yet"→
Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid-day market update for Friday, the 8th of
General indices in the U.S. are in bull trends and I expect to see these trends resume and continue for the balance of 2013. Near term, I expect to see stocks begin to consolidate their recent gains before once again moving higher.
These are truly days of wine and roses for stockmarket investors.
After being knocked down in the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and again during the financial crisis of 2008, long-term investors are being rewarded for their persistence and dedication as stocks surge higher, breaking record after record.
In fact, this bull market turned 4 years old in March and is showing no signs of letting up.
Historically, the average bull market has lasted 4 1/2 years. In and of itself, this means little; for instance, the 1990s bull market lasted nearly seven years without a major correction.