Author: Mike Seery

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract is currently trading at 1,400 hitting a 6 month high after settling last Friday in New York at 1,344 an ounce up over $55 for the trading week all on concerns of a conflict brewing with the country of Iran.

The U.S. dollar has hit a 3 month low as well as helping support prices as the fundamental situation for gold has changed very quickly as strong demand continues to push up prices. I am currently sitting on the sidelines in this market, but as I've written about in previous blogs, I still think gold is going higher as I see no reason to be short.

I have bullish recommendations in silver and Palladium as I'm keeping a close eye on platinum to the upside as the 10-year note hit 1.99% this week hitting a multi-year low as that is extremely supportive towards gold prices.

The next major level of resistance is around the 1,450 area as there is still room to run to the upside as you have to remember the all-time high was hit in September of 2011 above the 1,920 level and if you look at the monthly chart, in my opinion, it looks very bullish.

If you have a futures contract place the stop loss under the 10-day low which stands at 1,325 as an exit strategy, however, that will be raised daily starting next week.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGHER
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Copper Futures

Copper futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.6275 while currently trading at 2.6435 up about 160 points for the trading week as prices have gone sideways the past two weeks.

I have been recommending a bearish position over the last couple of months from the 2,8240 level and if you took that trade continue to place to stop loss above the 10-day high standing at 2.7020 as an exit strategy as we are just an eyelash away from getting stopped out.

My only other precious metal recommendation is a bullish palladium position which continues to climb as I am also bullish gold and silver as I think higher prices are ahead.

Copper is still trading below its 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains negative, however for the bearish momentum to continue we have to break the June 7th low of 2.5995 as we need some fresh fundamental news to send some volatility back into this commodity.

Continue to place the proper stop loss, and if we are stopped out, then look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the commodity markets are starting to develop strong trends.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,311 an ounce while currently trading at 1,347 up over $35 for the trading week looking to retest the contract high that was hit on February 20th at 1,361 in my opinion.

Currently, I'm not involved in gold, but I do believe higher prices are ahead as the 10-year note is now yielding 2.05% which is a 21-month low as that is a fundamental bullish factor for gold and commodity prices in general as prices held major support around the 1,275 level & now look to move higher.

Gold prices are right at a 3 1/2 month high, and if the contract high is broken, you're looking at a possibility that prices will trade into the $1,400 range as strong demand continues to push prices higher.

The U.S. dollar has hit a 4 week low this week, and that also is a bullish towards gold prices as it doesn't look like the trade war with China is going to end anytime soon. Money flows continue to go into the markets that are known as a flight to quality which includes gold and the bond market as I see no reason to be short gold at this time as I will be looking at buying on a price dip.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH
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Mexican Peso Futures

The Mexican Peso in the June contract is plummeting this Friday afternoon down 144 points all due to President Trump slapping a 5% tariff on Mexico sending the Peso near a 3 month low. I have been recommending a bearish position from around the 5177 level while adding another contract at the 5140 level and if you took those trades continue to place the stop loss above the contract high which was hit on April 18th at 5287 as an exit strategy. If you have been following any of my previous blogs, you understand that I thought a possible head and shoulders top chart pattern was forming as now it looks to be confirmed. So continue to play this to the downside as the next major level of resistance is at the March 7th low of 2019 as this market looks very bearish in my opinion. If you take a look at the daily chart, the downtrend remains intact as now the volatility has come to life so continue to place the proper stop loss as I think there is significant room to run to the downside. The Peso is now trading far below its 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the trend has turned negative. I also have a bullish recommendation in the U.S. dollar, which is the strongest currency in the world at the current time and it is used as a flight to quality so continue to play this to the downside.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

10-year Note Futures

The 10-year note in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 125 / 06 while currently trading at 126 / 23 hitting a fresh contract high as the stock market is plunging because President Trump has now placed a 5% tariff on the country of Mexico. I have been recommending two bullish positions with an average price of 124 / 25 and if you took that trade continue to place to stop loss at 124/01 as an exit strategy as I think there is still significant room to run to the upside. As I have talked about in many previous blogs, I believe the 10-year note will trade at 2% as the yield currently is at 2.18% as interest rates around the world are negative as this rate still looks exceptionally high. The 10-day note is trading far above its 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is higher so continue to place the proper stop loss and stay long in my opinion as I see no reason to be short the bond market. There is very little inflation worldwide as deflation is more of a concern coupled with the fact of strong demand to own U.S. Treasuries.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: INCREASING
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Gold Futures

Gold futures in the June contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,275 an ounce while currently trading at 1,283 up about $8 for the trading week bouncing off of major support which stands at the 1,267 level. I'm sitting on the sidelines as my only recommendation in the precious metals is a short copper play as gold prices look interesting and I think if the 1,267 level is broken a bear market will develop, so that is the key price level to keep an eye on. Gold prices are still trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the downside, and if you take a look at the daily chart, the downtrend line remains intact as the bullish trend would not develop until prices break the 1,304 level in my opinion so play this to the downside. Silver prices continue their bearish trend as that is also putting pressure on gold, but one of the main influences on gold is the fact that the U.S dollar hit a two year high in yesterday's trade and that looks to move even higher in my opinion. The chart structure in gold will start to improve in next weeks trade therefor the risk/reward will become in your favor as I do think there are a lot of sell stops at the 1,267 level.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the July contract is currently trading lower by 6 cents at 14.55 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 14.37 up about $0.17 for the trading week but remains in a bearish trend. I'm not involved in silver but it still looks like weaker prices are ahead, and if you are short a futures contract I would place the stop loss above the 10- day high which stands at 14.86 as an exit strategy as the chart structure is outstanding due to the fact of low volatility. If you take a look at the daily chart, the downtrend line remains intact, but for the bearish momentum to continue the May 21st low of 14.35 has to be broken and if that does occur I think you could test the upper 13 level as weak demand continues. The U.S dollar hit a 2-year high this week, and that is also putting pressure on silver, however, inflation is minimal at this particular time as industrial metals continue to remain weak as deflation could be a problem as inflation certainly is not as I see no reason to be a buyer of silver at this time. Silver prices are trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as the entire precious metal sector remains bearish.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW
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