Author: Mike Seery

Natural Gas Futures

Natural gas futures in the November contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.80 while currently trading at 2.43, down about 37 points for the week, hitting a 2 month low.

I am not involved as the volatility is extremely high. That situation isn't going to change as we enter the winter months as seasonably speaking, you can have tremendous price swings daily. I will be looking at a counter-trend trade soon. I think the contract low, which was hit on June 25th at 2.13, will keep a close eye on this market as I think a bottoming situation is starting to occur.

Gas prices are trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is mixed to lower in my opinion as prices topped out right around the 3.00 level just several weeks ago. Fundamentally speaking, industrial natural gas demand remains tepid as BNEF data shows gas demand from power generators was estimated at just under 30 bcf for last Monday, which is the lowest for any September 21st since 2015.

TREND: LOWER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures in the November contract is currently trading at 111.85, ending the week on a sour note after settling last Friday in New York at 105.75, up over 600 points for the week bottoming out around the 105 level. Continue reading "Extreme Volatility Hits Natural Gas Futures" →

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,962 an ounce while currently trading at 1,860, down over $100 for the trading week, experiencing one of their worst percentage loss in months.

I'm not involved, but if you look at the daily chart, it looks like lower prices are ahead as the downtrend line remains intact, with prices now trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average for the first time in months. It looks to me that prices will test major support around the 1,800 level in the coming days. The U.S. dollar has hit a 2 month high as that has negatively influenced the precious metals that have fallen out of bed this week.

Gold prices are experiencing high volatility as that situation will not change anytime soon. I am advising clients to sit on the sidelines as I will be looking at a bullish position down the road. Fundamentally speaking, the Federal Reserve will implement trillions and trillions of stimulus dollars into this economy. Eventually, it will push all asset classes higher as I think this is just a consolidation of the massive run-up that we witnessed over the last 6 months, but I do not believe the long term trend is over with just the short-term trend has turned negative.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the December contract absolutely collapsed this week after settling last Friday, New York at 27.12 an ounce while currently trading at 22.85, down about $4.25 for the week as prices have now hit a 2 week low. Continue reading "Gold Futures To Test Major Support" →

Copper Futures

Copper futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 3.0395 a pound while currently trading at 3.0700, up about 300 points for the trading week as prices are still right near a 2 year high.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 3.0140 level, and if you took that trade, continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low, which stands at 2.9555. However, the chart structure will improve in 4 trading sessions; therefore, the monetary risk will be reduced. I also have a bullish platinum recommendation out of the precious metals. I think commodities are headed higher across-the-board due to strengthening demand improving worldwide. I will be looking at adding more contracts to the upside as the risk/reward remain in your favor because prices have gone nowhere over the last 3 weeks as. That situation is not going to last much longer as a breakout is looming, in my opinion.

Copper prices are trading far above their 20 and 100-day moving average as this trend is strong to the upside as fundamentally speaking, strong demand continues to propel prices higher.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 132.45 a pound while currently trading at 113.90, down over 1800 points for the trading week as prices have now hit a 4 week low.

I do not have any soft commodity recommendations; however, I believe the multi-decade low that was hit on June 15th at 96.90 will hold as I will be looking at a bullish trade in the coming days ahead. The risk would be around $7,000, which is way too much, so be patient. I think a bottom has been formed, but the rain has come back into key coffee growing regions in Brazil, which has sent prices sharply lower here in the short-term. Continue reading "Improving Global Demand Drives Futures Higher" →

Copper Futures

Copper futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 3.0620 a pound while currently trading at 3.0370, down about 250 points on high volatility as prices are still hovering right near a 2 year high.

If you take a look at the daily chart, the uptrend line remains intact coupled with the fact that prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as this trend is strong to the upside even though prices have stalled out over the last couple of weeks.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 3.0140 level. If you took that trade, continue to place the stop loss under the 2 week low on a closing basis only at 2.9535 as an exit strategy chart structure is outstanding. For the bullish momentum to continue, prices have to break the September 1st high of 3.0945, in my opinion. I still believe the risk/reward is in your favor for a bullish position as this commodity at the current time is following the stock market, which has showed some high volatility to the downside over the last several days, keeping a lid on prices.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 26.71 an ounce while currently trading at 26.92, up slightly for the trading week as prices continue their sideways trading action. Continue reading "High Volatility Hits Futures Market" →

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,974 while currently trading at 1,931 an ounce, down about $43 for the trading week still stuck in a 3 week consolidation.

If you look at the daily chart, we generally trade between 1,900/2,000, looking to break out above or below those critical levels in the next several days. I'm not involved in gold at the current time, but I do have a bullish bias as I think higher prices are ahead as prices are consolidating the massive run-up in price that we've witnessed over the last 6 months. Presently I also have a bullish silver recommendation as we're very close to getting stopped out of that trade as the US dollar is up about 50 points today, throwing some water on the bullish trend.

Gold prices are trading below their 20-day moving average for the first time in months, but still far above their 100-day. The trend is neutral to higher, so sit on the sidelines and wait for the breakout to occur; therefore, the risk/reward would be more in your favor as trading choppy markets are very difficult.

TREND: MIXED - HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the December contract is trading lower for the 3rd consecutive session down another $0.25 at 26.63 an ounce as prices are bouncing off of major support on the daily chart.

I have been recommending a bullish position for the last couple of months from the 18.61 level, and if you took that trade, the stop loss has now been raised to 26.29 on a hard basis only as I'm not willing to risk any more than that critical price level. At the current time, we are just an eyelash away from being stopped out and if that does occur, look at other markets that are beginning to trend as I think we will consolidate in silver for quite some time. Still, I do believe the precious metals will continue to move higher over time. Continue reading "Precious Metal Futures Sell-Off" →