Author: Robert Boslego

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, June 2019

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for June, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. It estimated stocks rose by 38 million barrels in May to 2.902 billion, 84 million barrels higher than a year ago.

However, throughout 2019, OECD inventories are no longer expected to rise any further. At year-end, EIA projects 2019 to be with 2.871 million barrels, 10 million more than at the end of 2018. For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build 49 million barrels to end the year at 2.920 billion.

oecd oil inventories

The EIA has revised its estimates for future OPEC production down significantly, given the sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela. For much of the balance of 2019 and 2020, it expects OPEC production to remain under 30 million barrels per day. U.S. shale is expected to capture market share from OPEC. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, June 2019" →

U.S. Crude Production Rebounds In March

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that March crude oil production averaged 11.905 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 241,000 b/d from February. The rise was largely the result of the resumption of output from the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) which had been affected by unscheduled maintenance. Production rose by 191,000 b/d.

Crude Production

Elsewhere, there were gains of 42,000 b/d in North Dakota, 23,000 b/d in New Mexico and 16,000 b/d in Oklahoma. There was a decline of 17,000 b/d in Colorado and 5,000 b/d in Texas. A pause in the growth rate in Texas had been expected due to pipeline constraints which are expected to be alleviated in the second half of 2019. Nonetheless, crude production rose by a spectacular 1.441 mmbd from June through March. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Rebounds In March" →

Iran Sanctions And OPEC's Deliberations Have Failed To Lift Oil Prices

Posted on by Robert Boslego

OPEC+ members met over the weekend to discuss the oil market and the possible actions they may take at the next OPEC meetings scheduled for June 25th and 26th. OPEC’s press release reported:

Following its 14th Meeting, which took place on 19 May 2019, in Jeddah, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) has reaffirmed its commitment to achieving a balanced market and working towards oil market stability on a sustainable basis with solid fundamentals.”

After the meeting, ministers spoke with reporters. According to reporting by CNBC:

Saudi Arabia’s influential oil minister, Khalid al-Falih, warned that global crude stockpiles are rising, threatening to swamp the world in oil and cause prices to collapse. Overall, the market is in a delicate situation. On the one hand, there is a lot of concern — and we acknowledge it — about disruptions and sanctions and supply interruptions. But on the other hand, we see inventories rising. We see plentiful supply around the world, which means we think, all in all, we should be in a comfortable situation in the weeks and months to come.” Continue reading "Iran Sanctions And OPEC's Deliberations Have Failed To Lift Oil Prices" →

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, May 2019

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for May, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June at 2.806 billion barrels. It estimated that stocks rose by 20 million barrels in April to 2.860 billion, 51 million barrels higher than a year ago.

Throughout the balance of 2019, OECD inventories are expected to rise modestly. At year-end, EIA projects stocks at 2.870 million barrels, 11 million more than at the end of 2018.

For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build another 35 million barrels to end the year at 2.905 billion. The non-extension of waivers to Iran’s sanctions implies lower OPEC output for the period, and this factor has lowered the EIA’s stock forecast materially.

oecd oil inventories

Oil Price Implications

I updated my linear regression between OECD oil inventories and WTI crude oil prices for the period 2010 through 2018. As expected, there are periods where the price deviates greatly from the regression model. But overall, the model provides a reasonably high r-square result of 80 percent. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, May 2019" →

U.S. Crude Production In February Reflects Unscheduled GOM Maintenance

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that February crude oil production averaged a surprising 11.683 million barrels per day (mmbd), down 187,000 b/d from January. The drop was totally the result of unscheduled maintenance in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), which averaged 1.719 mmbd. Production had been over 1.9 mmbd in November through January.

Crude Production

Despite drops in January and February, crude production still rose by a spectacular 1.219 mmbd from June through February, a period when capacity takeaway constraints had been expected to slow down the growth in Texas.

Production in Texas rose by 69,000 b/d to a record 4.890 mmbd. That was nearly offset by a decline in North Dakota of 64,000 b/d due to seasonal factors. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production In February Reflects Unscheduled GOM Maintenance" →