Author: Robert Boslego

Oil Market Readies For Iran Sanction Waivers, Round 2

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Crude oil production in Iran had reached 3.84 million barrels per day (mmbd) in the period following the lifting of sanctions by the Obama Administration. But following President Trump’s announcement in May 2018 that the U.S. would re-impose sanctions in November, demand for Iranian crude dropped to 3.7 mmbd by October. In November, the Trump Administration allowed limited waivers to the sanctions to eight countries, but Iranian production dropped by another 700,000 b/d by March.

The waivers were designed to terminate on May 2nd, but Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced April 22nd that the waivers would not be extended. "This decision is intended to bring Iran's oil exports to zero, denying the regime its principal source of revenue," the White House said in a statement.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iran’s exports of crude and condensates are running about 1.1 mmbd in April. President Trump tweeted Saudi Arabia and others in OPEC had assured him that they would make up the impact of any decline in Iran’s exports:

Iran

In the months leading up to last November, KSA had increased its output to 11.1 mmbd, at the request of the White House, to ensure that oil supplies would be adequate once the Iranian sanctions took effect in November. But Trump’s granting of the waivers immediately created an oversupply in the global oil market, and oil prices collapsed as a result. Continue reading "Oil Market Readies For Iran Sanction Waivers, Round 2" →

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, April 2019

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for April, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June at 2.806 billion barrels. It estimated stocks fell by 18 million barrels In March to 2.829 billion, 23 million barrels higher than a year ago.

However, throughout 2019, OECD inventories are expected to rise rather quickly through November. At year-end, EIA projects 2091 to be with 2.915 million barrels, 53 million more than at the end of 2018.

For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build another 70 million barrels to end the year at 2.985 billion. That would push stocks into glut territory.

oecd oil inventories

Oil Price Implications

I updated my linear regression between OECD oil inventories and WTI crude oil prices for the period 2010 through 2018. As expected, there are periods where the price deviates greatly from the regression model. But overall, the model provides a reasonably high r-square result of 80 percent. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, April 2019" →

U.S. Crude Production In January Displays A Seasonal Lull

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that January crude oil production averaged 11.871 million barrels per day (mmbd), down 90,000 b/d from December. Despite the drop in January, crude production still rose by a spectacular 1.407 mmbd from June through January, a period when capacity takeaway constraints had been expected to slow down the growth in Texas.

crude production

The year-over-year gains have been especially impressive with the January figure being 1.876 mmbd. And this number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply add to that. For January, that additional gain is about 6,950 b/d. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production In January Displays A Seasonal Lull" →

Round 2: Trump Vs. OPEC

Posted on by Robert Boslego

With oil prices having staged a recovery during the first quarter of 2019, primarily due to the withholding of oil supplies from Saudi Arabia, President Trump has once again entered the oil market as a threat. Not since OPEC’s founding in 1960 has an American president been as vocal or involved as Trump.

Trump’s intervention in “Round 1,” summarized below, shocked the market, causing a massive price collapse. However, with close scrutiny of the president’s views, both before taking office and over the past year, the market should not have been so surprised.

Saudi Arabia is in a delicate position. On the one hand, it needs oil prices in the $80s to support it's country’s budget, even if lifting costs are $10 or less. It also knows that a “high price” is not the best price longer-term, due to cutbacks in demand and the increasing availability of substitutes, such as U.S. shale.

But possibly most importantly, it depends on the U.S. for its security. And looking forward, it wants U.S. investment to help diversify its economy as the oil age wanes.

Simply put, it cannot afford to ignore this U.S. president, whose first international trip was to KSA. There is an important political and economic link to the U.S. that it did not have even one president ago (Obama). And its arch-nemesis, Iran, at the same time is being severely harassed by President Trump. Continue reading "Round 2: Trump Vs. OPEC" →

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, March 2019

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for March, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June at 2.806 billion barrels. It estimated a 21-million barrel decline for February to 2.837 billion, 9 million barrels lower than a year ago.

However, throughout 2019, OECD inventories are expected to rise rather quickly through November. At year-end, EIA projects stocks to be 2.918 billion barrels, 64 billion more than at the end of 2018.

For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build another 82 billion barrels to end the year at 3.000 billion. That would push stocks into glut territory.

oecd oil inventories

Oil Price Implications

I updated my linear regression between OECD oil inventories and WTI crude oil prices for the period 2010 through 2018. As expected, there are periods where the price deviates greatly from the regression model. But overall, the model provides a reasonably high r-square result of 80 percent. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, March 2019" →