Silver Is In Fashion But Not For Investors

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


This week I have prepared a Silver macro data analysis with diagrams and added a technical outlook for "dessert".

Supply and Demand

Silver Supply and Demand

Chart: Aibek Burabayev; Data source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters / The Silver institute

Back in 2005, both supply and demand for Silver were below 1 billion ounces (Boz) and were well balanced with a small deficit of 7.3 million ounces (Moz). Since then they have risen with different speed and in 2014 both broke up that level. As seen on the chart above, the supply of Silver is quite stable with a narrow 889-1073 Moz range in past 10 years. 2010 (growth in mining and scrap supply) and 2014 (10 year record mining production) are the highest years of supply. Continue reading "Silver Is In Fashion But Not For Investors"

Yen Spike: An Opportunity in the Making?

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


The BOJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, never disappoints when it comes to producing a juicy headline for the newswires. Last time, if you will recall, it was the surprise addition of new stimulus. This time around, in his speech to the Shūgiin, Japan's House of Representatives last week, Governor Kuroda exclaimed that "the Yen is fairly valued." He then continued to outline how the merits of monetary policy have limits.

And what was investors take on Kuroda's message? Clearly fearful. That was evident by the avalanche of investors who failed to consider the underlying message and quickly switched to crowded Yen buying. The USD/JPY move was brutal, with the pair taking a nose dive of 300 pips. Of course, soon after, analysts and experts provided their own take. Opinions ran from "The remarkable rise of the USD/JPY has finally come to an abrupt end" to "the BOJ will not add more stimulus." In fact, big bets on more and more stimulus are now well off the table. But, before you decide to follow the crowd, take a moment to stop, ponder and try to see this for what it very well may be. Simply put, perhaps the spike in the Yen's value is actually an opportunity to sell it high.

Kuroda Vs Bernanke

Markets are looking at Kuroda's speech as the BOJ saying, essentially, that shorting the Yen from here on out might not be such a good idea. It might also suggest that if the BOJ is pleased with the current value of the Yen, that they might then be less accommodative. Of course, no one knows what exactly goes through the governor's head except Kuroda himself, yet we can speculate. Before I do that, let me first draw a comparison to another central banker, Ben Bernanke, the now retired chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. Continue reading "Yen Spike: An Opportunity in the Making?"

Play The Big Data Trend With This Tech Stock

Daniel Cross - INO.com Contributor - Equities


Tech stocks are having a great year as evidenced by the NASDAQ's gain of 7.2% year-to-date. Fueling the growth is the emerging trend with the "Internet of Things" (IoT). This fast growing segment in the technology industry is situated around big data, cloud computing, semiconductors, and wireless interconnectivity.

The landscape is a rich one for companies involved in the IoT field. The entire IoT industry will grow from $1.9 trillion in 2013 to $7.1 trillion by 2020 according to estimates made by the market research firm IDC. The increased strain on existing hardware and software infrastructures means that a more advanced form of storage will become necessary to handle the workload.

Big data is the answer. SNS Research's new report expects big data to be a $40 billion industry by the end of this year. Investments in this growing technology are estimated to grow at a CAGR of 14% over the next 5 years in fields ranging from mobile devices to scientific research to fraud detection. And with so much potential in big data, one company has emerged as the de facto leader in the industry.

A disruptive innovator with huge growth opportunities ahead

EMC Corporation (EMC) is a $52 billion company and stands out as the world's largest provider of data storage systems. The company provides data storage, information security, cloud computing, and other services that enable companies to store, manage, analyze, and protect information.

Despite the potential in big data, EMC's stock hasn't really performed well this year – down nearly 9% YTD. The company missed earnings for the first quarter reporting $0.31 per share as opposed to the analysts consensus of $0.36 per share. The miss was partially due to managements miscalculations however and not entirely attributed to a declining product line which could mean that the stock could be on sale at its current price.

NYSE:EMC
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Based on EMC's chart, positive momentum appears to be building up in the stock. The stock should be in breakout territory once it crosses $27.50 while the downside appears to have already been priced into the stock price.

The stock looks cheap from a valuation perspective trading at just 14.2 times earnings in an industry where 16.7 is the average. The balance sheet looks strong with long term debt obligations of around $5.5 billion while cash holdings currently stand at about $4.4 billion. Last year, EMC increased its dividend which now pays out $0.46 per share annually for a total yield of 1.7% while keeping the payout ratio to a low 37%. The company also has plans to buy back $3 billion worth of stock for 2015 providing a floor for investors in the stock.

EMC's recent announcement to acquire Virtustream for $1.2 billion in an all-cash deal should be a positive catalyst for the stock. The global cloud service provider will add depth to EMC's cloud data storage portfolio and give customers the capability to move their entire application portfolio into a cloud environment.

Given full year earnings estimates of $1.91, the stock should be fairly valued at $33 per share – a 22% discount from its current price. The second quarter results will be a better indication of whether the weakness seen in the first quarter was temporary as management claimed or indicative of a deeper problem.

Check back to see my next post!

Best,
Daniel Cross
INO.com Contributor - Equities

Disclosure: This contributor does not own any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

Jobs Report Not Enough to Signal September Liftoff

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


Was May's better-than-expected jobs report strong enough to convince the Federal Reserve to start interest rate liftoff in September?

Based on the market's reaction on Friday, the answer sure looks like yes. Yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds spiked to their highest levels since last October, and stocks were mostly lower.

But let's not carried away with one number and one report. Certainly the data-paralyzed Fed won't. If we get three solid months of positive economic statistics, then I’ll think there's a chance – albeit a slim one – the Fed will make a move in September. Until then, we'll have to wait and see.

Notice I've already written off next week's Fed meeting as the first interest rate increase. While the minutes of the Fed's April 28-29 monetary policy meeting "did not rule out" the possibility of raising rates at the June meeting, it was "unlikely" that economic data would justify doing so by then. Nothing's happened in the meantime to change that. Continue reading "Jobs Report Not Enough to Signal September Liftoff"

Central Banks Keep Buying Gold When You Are Not

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Gold is a unique asset class, despite being uninteresting from a volatility investing perspective. I mean, it's currently sideways amid a soaring equity and dollar value, but it is still interesting for selected market participants for its safe haven status and diversification purposes.

We all have different time frames that we use, common investors use daily, weekly and monthly charts and the quarter to year perspective when they summarize the profits or losses. And so do the public companies when filing their earnings reports every quarter. And for these type of investors, Gold's dynamics in recent years have been frustrating as it is has been totally unmoved month by month, making investment unpromising.

SPDR vs. Gold
Data courtesy of www.spdrgoldshares.com

On the above monthly chart, tailored especially for INO.com readers, I want you to see for yourselves the direct relationship between Gold prices and the demand for ETF holdings. For 2 years as depicted on the chart, Gold lost 17% of its total value. Meanwhile the SPDR Gold Trust holdings lost 22% of its total value, almost matching dynamics. The holdings fell even more than the Gold price did telling us about worsening investors' sentiment for Gold. Remember the old words that "the Fear has a large shadow". The holdings were falling, gradually neglecting upswings in the Gold price, and only this January did the holdings pick up from 709 to 763 tons amid Gold's price growth from $1172 up to $1273. But this outstanding move proved to be short-lived, and both indicators fell back to the lows.

On the contrary, the central banks are buying Gold despite the sideways market. Continue reading "Central Banks Keep Buying Gold When You Are Not"