Does Inflation Matter?

The Great Inflation Debate continues.

Senator Joe Manchin, the West Virginia Democrat, became if not the first, but certainly the most prominent politician to sound the alarm about rising inflation and the Federal Reserve’s role in it.

“With the recession over and our strong economic recovery well underway, I am increasingly alarmed that the Fed continues to inject record amounts of stimulus into our economy by continuing an emergency level of quantitative easing (QE) with asset purchases of $120 billion per month of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities,” the senator wrote in a letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

This “has led to the most inflation momentum in 30 years, and our economy has not even fully reopened yet. I am deeply concerned that the continuing stimulus put forth by the Fed and proposal for additional fiscal stimulus will lead to our economy overheating and to unavoidable inflation taxes that hard-working Americans cannot afford. Therefore, I urge you and the other members of the Federal Open Market Committee to immediately reassess our nation’s stance of monetary policy and begin to taper your emergency stimulus-response.”

Needless to say, as the Wall Street Journal pointed at, that concern hasn’t prevented Manchin from voting with his party to spend trillions more and add trillions more to the federal deficit.
(By the way, did you hear any criticism of Manchin for trying to “politicize” the Fed? No, me neither).

A few days later, we received the latest indication that inflation may not be as transitory as Powell and many others Continue reading "Does Inflation Matter?"

The 2021 Guide to Cryptocurrencies (Part 2)

If you’re like me, when I first got the cryptocurrency bug, I was overwhelmed by the concepts, technicalities, and mounds of jargon. All I really wanted was for someone to just give me some short snippets about the most important topics I needed to know. And to leave the minutiae for a later time.

Well, if that sounds like you, you’ve come to the right place. In this second part of The 2021 Guide to Cryptocurrencies, I’ll take you through two topics that are key to getting involved with the cryptocurrency and blockchain space: Why you should think hard about owning a little bitcoin and where to get started with a cryptocurrency exchange.

And in case you missed it, don’t forget to check the first part of this series. It has valuable information about what the blockchain really is, what cryptocurrency really means, and whether or not they’re right for you. It would be a good primer for this issue but isn’t necessary.

So, let’s get to it! Continue reading "The 2021 Guide to Cryptocurrencies (Part 2)"

Bitcoin Buy Setup In Profit Range

It looks like I have posted the Bitcoin Bullish Setup at the right time as the price precisely followed the preset path - first down into a correction, which hit the minimum area of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Then up to break above the first minor top, that activated the buy trade setup.

The majority of readers were bullish, with 61% votes.

Bitcoin Daily Chart

We can see the clear difference between outlooks and setups. I posted both the Bullish setup and the Bearish setup in case the correction would be extended. They were based on opposite outlooks. We do not have to guess; we wait for which setup would work. Continue reading "Bitcoin Buy Setup In Profit Range"

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 8/15/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

Another week of drifting from the markets without any real increase in bullish or bearish pressures.

There are, of course, outliers that have moved, but they have been primarily low odds scenarios.

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Weekly Chart - Stock Market Forecast

The market keeps drifting higher without much passion in either direction. While it’s seductive to want to “jump on the train,” the odds at this point are poor. All it takes is one little geopolitical catalyst, and a market this overbought can snap back 5% in a matter of days. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast"

Market Liquidity Is Draining From Different Vantage Points

On Wednesday I made a post that showed the “metallic credit spread” (as coined by Bob Hoye) known as the Gold/Silver ratio (GSR) flipped on its head (to Silver/Gold) to indicate a dangerous situation for the S&P 500, if past is prologue. Here is that post and here is the Tweet that followed…

Silver, with more cyclical inflation-sensitive characteristics than gold (which is more counter-cyclical with utility during liquidity crises), has broken down of late vs. its monetary daddy. The chart speaks for itself as to why caution and risk management are now warranted. Continue reading "Market Liquidity Is Draining From Different Vantage Points"