Tag: aibek burabayev

Safe Haven Test: 1+ Year After SNB Shock

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


More than a year ago, on the 15th of January 2015, the market was shocked by the sharp move of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) abandoning the cap of the Swiss franc to the euro. I dedicated a special post to that event. This time, I've made a comparative chart for the period from the start of 2015 until today to show you how the SNB's move affected the safe haven currency for the past 13 months.

The Swiss franc is in an inverse cross here (CHFUSD) to comfort your perception of both assets dynamics against the US dollar.

Chart 1. Gold vs. Swiss Franc: Gold Wins Again

Gold vs. Swiss Franc
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The shock was short-lived as the currency quickly lost the gains during the first quarter of 2015. The Franc caught up with falling gold in a very tight correlation. They bottomed at the same time in March of 2015 and then reversed to the upside and peaked in May of 2015. The similarity of trends continued with the metal gapping deeper on the drops. Rare short interruptions of the link occurred last December and this month when gold increased its value and the franc didn't. Continue reading "Safe Haven Test: 1+ Year After SNB Shock" →

Gold/Silver Ratio: Gold Loses Its Shine

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Back in August, I updated my gold/silver ratio chart with conservative bullish targets. Today I would like to share my growing concerns about the ratio's dynamics as fresh highs haven't appeared since my first post. As I've said many times before, let us not to be biased. Change the charting when the chart changes!

Chart 1. Gold/Silver Monthly: Tarnished Diamond

Monthly Chart of Gold/Silver
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Above is the reconstruction of the chart from the previous post about the ratio. I added several remarks in red the call-outs and also put the middle of the green channel in a dashed line. But the most important addition is the simple, classic Momentum indicator below the chart with remarks. Continue reading "Gold/Silver Ratio: Gold Loses Its Shine" →

Gold Update: Unstoppable?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


It's been awhile since I posted my last gold update in October. I haven't written about gold because everything was going by the plan: gold fell right after the post and even hit a new low making bears happy. I expected to wait for the week of the 29th of February as it was my time target in that update. But gold's price overshot the recent high which was the starting point for the last drop towards the new bottom invalidating the experiment.

Below is the chart from my earlier gold post to refresh your memory. I added blue call-outs with some new comments to show where it went wrong.

Chart 1: Updated Experimental Gold Chart

Updated Experimental Gold Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

I shadowed the part of the chart before the post date (October 22nd) to highlight the progress of the price. Gold quickly plunged down from the post date. It went all the way down with the largest drop in November and hit a new multi-year low at the $1046 level at the end. Continue reading "Gold Update: Unstoppable?" →

Copper Update: Bottomed?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


If you have read my last update on this metal, you should be aware of a recent miscorrelation between the two core assets. You will see in the chart below that my bold expectations for a rapid recovery of oil didn't come true.

Chart 1 Copper-Oil Comparative Illustration: Investors Choose Metal Over Oil

Comparative Chart of Copper and Oil
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Neither the first interim low in the middle of December nor the second low in the middle of January could make the much anticipated V-shape rocket reversal. The main reason for that is the oversupply of the oil market. There are rumors that OPEC will soon reach a deal with Russia to cut production for their mutual benefit. This, of course, will cause the price of oil to rise. I think this is a temporary measure and after the short-term rise we will see the price of oil drop again, but it could take some time happen. Continue reading "Copper Update: Bottomed?" →

Silver Update: Killing It Softly

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Experiment Results

It's time to check the results of my silver analysis. Back in November, I wrote an update on silver, in the first part of which I made an error analysis session of an earlier post and in the second part I added an experimental clone chart. There were two calculated targets: a price target and the time target.

In December, I was out of patience and was going to write a post once silver hit the price target. But it was crucial to wait until the time came to check both results on the date outlined in my earlier post. Below I've included the experimental clone model chart from my earlier post and added fresh comments highlighted in red to show the results and changes for your convenience.

Chart 1 Silver Weekly: Amazing Math

Silver Weekly Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

What do we see? Let’s start from the pleasant result. Yes, the price target was hit accurately almost cent to the cent: The $13.65 projected target versus the actual low of $13.63 in December. I was really surprised by this outcome as it strengthens my confidence in the world of numbers. By the way, the AB/CD concept target ($13.7) from my September post has also been hit. Continue reading "Silver Update: Killing It Softly" →