How To Play This Volatile Market

Over the past few weeks, I have been on the phone with tons of different market participants. Some are professional investors, people investing a little of their own money, financial advisors who manage a few million and others who manage hundreds of millions, and to first-time investors in their 20's, 30's, and 40's and even one as young as 17 years old.

While everyone wants to talk about what is going on or wants to know what to do or has a strong opinion on what to do within the market, only one thing holds true of every person I have spoken to; no one truly knows what is going to happen next.

Let me emphasize that, "No one truly knows what is going to happen next."

This is true for the people I have been speaking with, investors who managed billions in hedge funds or retirement funds. The Jim Cramer's or other talking heads on CNBC, the President of the United States, nor Congress, nor the Pope himself, knows what is going to happen next.

Although some people may tell you they do or just be very convincing that they do, let me assure you, they don't know what the market is going to do tomorrow, next week, next month, or the rest of the year.

And let's be clear, this would all be true whether or not we're in the midst of a pandemic or not.

However, you can't blame people for making predictions or looking at the past performance of stocks following significant economic turmoil. Comparing the past and trying to find similarities to help us make 'predictions' is very common and can be useful at times, but that doesn't mean we should blindly follow those predictions. (This is even true for my suggestions.)

So, if no one knows what's going to happen, then what should we do? Continue reading "How To Play This Volatile Market"

A Few New Retail ETF Investing Options

Recent data reports and economic indicators have been mixed when it comes to the health of the American consumer. This has led some investors to think retail stocks are undervalued, while other investors believe they are overvalued. So whether you fall into the camp that thinks the next recession is “just right around the corner” or that the poor retail sales figures reported in December were not a sign the economy is struggling, but simply a blip in the data caused because of the government shutdown; there are a few newer Retail ETFs which give you the option to invest regardless of the way you think the market is headed.

The first place to start looking if you want to be long retail is with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT). The XRT would be most investors first choice if you are looking for plain vanilla long Retail ETF investing. XRT has been around since 2006; it has a lower than average expense ratio, when compared to others on this list, at 0.35%. IT has $250 million in assets, 96 holdings and is equally-weighted and draws stocks from the S&P Total Market Index, not just the S&P 500. It also invests in both e-commerce retailers and brick-and-mortar retailers.

Since most people would agree retails future is more online, the most basic ‘online’ Retail ETF is the Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY). IBUY has an inception date of April 20th, 2016, and offers equally weighted, well-diversified exposure to global online retailers. Firms must derive 70% of their revenues from online sales and can be any size in terms of market-cap (subject to the standard typical minimum size and liquidity constraints). The fund has 75% of its assets in US-based companies and 25% in foreign stocks. IBUY has an expense ratio of 0.65%, which is on the ‘high’ side, but considering the exposure the fund offers, it is not unreasonable. IBUY currently has $275 million in assets spread out over its 42 different holdings, which have a weighted average market cap of $52 billion. Wayfair (W), Etsy (ETSY), eBay (EBAY) and PayPal (PYPL) are four of the funds top 10 holdings, with none representing more than 5% of the fund. Continue reading "A Few New Retail ETF Investing Options"

Top ETFs For The First Half Of 2018

2018 has been a wild year with the bursting of the Bitcoin Bubble, some President Trump induced rallies and declines, trade war fears, North Korean diplomacy and the Facebook data scandal. But most all of, after the stock market rallying for years, its beginning to show signs of sluggishness as the S&P 500 is up a mere 0.84% during the first half of 2018.

But despite the weakness of the overall market, some investors, with the help of a few Exchange Traded Funds have made money during the first half of the year. Let us take a look at the top four, non-leveraged, non-VIX ETF’s during the first half of 2018.

The best performing non-leveraged, non-VIX ETF was the Invesco S&P SmallCap Health Care ETF (PSCH) which rose by 30.62%. Over the last 12 months, PSCH is up more than 45% after climbing an additional 16% during the most recent three months. The fund owns small cap stocks which operate in the healthcare sector and currently more then 75% of the assets are in companies that have a market cap smaller than $2.7 billion. The fund tends to lean towards healthcare equipment companies and healthcare providers more so than drug companies. The averagely weighted market cap is just $2.5 billion. The fund currently has $752 million in assets under management and 74 holdings. The top three holdings are Chemed Corp. (CHE), Haemonetics Corp. (HAE), and Neogen Corp. (NEOG). The funds top ten stocks make up 33% of assets, and it will cost an investor 0.29% to own PSCH on a yearly basis.

An aging population which is living longer than any other generation before it tends to be good for the healthcare industry. While PSCH may not end the year as the top ETF, it is indeed one you could buy now and feel comfortable owning for years to come. Continue reading "Top ETFs For The First Half Of 2018"