Gold Fixation

What is it about gold that makes people view it differently than any other asset class, creating an almost religious fixation* on the metal?  As long-term monetary insurance, you would think that it would be among the more boring items; sort like insurance annuities.  But that is not the case.

Gold is routinely propped up on a pedestal and obsessed upon in the world of money and finance.  In actuality, gold is a geological element that has been deemed by humans to be money or to closely track monetary value, with a track record measured in centuries.   Why, there it is on WebElements‘ element chart bracketed by things like Mercury, Cadmium and Copernicium, among other 'precious' metals. Continue reading "Gold Fixation"

U.S. Stock Market, Profits & Policy

U.S. stocks generally remain on bullish trends in all time frames.  Further, the Debt Ceiling (and Government shutdown) theater seems to be playing out in the usual way that these events play out; the stock market has been correcting in an orderly way and seems to be waiting for an inevitable compromise between the White House and Republican leaders.  This of course would spur a next leg up if the usual script plays out.  That is how it looks, with a traditional bull catalyst (heavy media rotation of an Armageddon-like political event) in play.

Yet there is a negative in play that actually matters, as corporate forward profit guidance is degenerating.  Or is it really a negative?  Graph from Sentimentrader.com: Continue reading "U.S. Stock Market, Profits & Policy"

Technical Status: Gold, Silver & Much More…

In response to a subscriber’s request, I am pleased to announce the addition of a simple yet helpful new aspect to the NFTRH service that will be of value to subscribers and potential subscribers who do not always have the time or inclination to wade through the  whole detailed NFTRH report each week.

The NFTRH service will now include clear, uncluttered charts (as follows) focused on a daily time frame for strategic ETF’s.  This is an addition (at no extra charge) to the already well rounded service that includes the detailed weekend letter and interim email/website updates during the week.

We now provide handy and unbiased short to intermediate technical signals for gold (GLD), silver (SLV), gold stocks (GDX), silver stocks (SIL), commodities (DBC), broad US markets (SPY),  Europe (EZU), emerging markets (EEM) and China (FXI).  ETF content is subject to change as their strategic value changes. Continue reading "Technical Status: Gold, Silver & Much More…"

The Fed's Great Adventure in Inflation

In the current policy and media stoked market environment, anything is possible.  It's  the wonderful, magical world of hands-on policy making.  5 years after the financial crisis, but still not enjoying a ramping economy like the good old (and long gone) days of the last great secular bull market (RIP 2000)?  Just sit back, relax and let the man in charge control the image.

"For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: there is nothing wrong with your television set. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to – The Outer Limits." Continue reading "The Fed's Great Adventure in Inflation"

Gold: "Taper This"

The media love to get a hold of buzz words and then give them a spin and a life all their own.  Recent examples were the mainstream media's presentation of 'Operation Twist' – which was simply an official yield curve manipulation designed to sanitize and dampen inflationary signals – as an inflationary operation, and the 'Fiscal Cliff' drama that sent herds of conventional investors to the sidelines* when they should have been contrarian (and bullish) back in Q4, 2012.

Now we have the media on the job tending the 'Taper' herd.  Among the many hyped up implications of 'Taper' according to the media are that it is bearish for gold.  But I would put forth not only a rejection of that assertion but just maybe a call for the opposite; a bullish stance on gold in the face of a Fed being coerced by natural movements in the Treasury bond market to talk 'taper'.

As part of its QE operation, the Fed buys long-term Treasury bonds with newly printed money.  It does so to try to keep interest rates down so that the economic recovery they have promoted does not fold in on itself, wheeze, roll over and die.  They also buy distressed MBS, but this is a story about Treasury bonds. Continue reading "Gold: "Taper This""