Tag: biiwii.com

Gold Stock "Launch" Is In Line With Fundamentals

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

I make the point in the title because the real fundamentals that matter for the gold stock sector must be in line at the beginning of a real bull phase or bull market for the sector. I make that point with the example of Q1 2016, when a very powerful gold stock “launch” erupted but in Q2 of that year we (NFTRH) were already advising a degrading of those fundamentals. A public article I wrote referenced this on May 30, 2016.

AMAT Chirps, b2b Ramps, Yellen Hawks and Gold’s Fundamentals Erode

What had happened in 2016 was that gold bottomed first, followed by the miners and silver. But then the whole raft of cyclical assets (commodities, stocks, etc.) bottomed and turned up. A cyclical party soon regenerated and the counter-cyclical gold stock sector was sent back to the hell it came from.

So again let’s take a look at our visual that roughly represents the correct macro backdrop for a bullish fundamental view on gold stocks. The larger the planet, the more important the fundamental aspect. Gold/Commodities should be a somewhat larger planet but work with me here. 🙂

Add in the important component of the Fed and its increasing odds of 2019 rate cuts and well, you’ve got the right backdrop for an undervalued sector (as we’ve been noting for months in NFTRH using unique comparisons of the gold/commodities and gold/oil ratios to the HUI index) to finally gain traction in the eyes of the wider investment community.

Hence we noted the launch in this NFTRH subscriber update (now public) on June 3rd. Check out the entire post, but below is an excerpted bit. Continue reading "Gold Stock "Launch" Is In Line With Fundamentals" →

You Have To Invite The Vampire Into Your House

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

A vampire needs to be invited in order to enter your house. So the story goes. But in this case, we are talking about the Macro house, with its nexus in the USA and its Central Bank.

You see, the Federal Reserve inflates money supplies as a matter of doing business, which is why I noted so strenuously in Q4 2018 that Jerome Powell’s then-hawkish stance in the face of a declining stock market made perfect sense… because the 30 year Treasury bond was not bullish; it was bearish and getting more so under the pressure of rising inflation expectations.

But now as we noted the other day the inflated Sub is losing pressure. As we noted before that Goldilocks is being threatened. Here are the updated ‘inflation gauges’ from that post, continuing to lose pressure.

Q4 2018

But in Q4 the Fed had a threat if its own to deal with as the repercussions of its previous inflationary operations could be exposed to the light of day by the breakout through the Continuum’s limiter if it were not arrested promptly. The orange arrow on the chart below shows the point of concern for the Fed. Continue reading "You Have To Invite The Vampire Into Your House" →

The Inflated Sub Is Losing Pressure

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

The charts are super interesting to look at. How quickly things turn, as if on a dime.

tnx

2018 featured a break above the Continuum’s limiter and folks, you and I were not the only ones who saw that and uttered “ruh roh!”; the Fed was well aware of the inflationary implication. Continue reading "The Inflated Sub Is Losing Pressure" →

Goldilocks Now, But She'll Be Vanquished

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

Just one look at the daily chart of SPX tells us - in hindsight - that this may have all been about gap acquisition. I was completely right and righteous to be bullish on the Christmas Eve massacre low, right on up to the 50-day moving average, which was the original target.

After that, I was compelled by the market’s technicals to be bullish for a drive to the SMA 200, and then 2815 resistance, and then… a top-test. I not only felt not righteous with these compulsions, I felt a little soiled. Hey, it’s just a human (as opposed to a newsletter writer/market commentator) talking about human feelings.

There is a difference between being contrary and willingly bullish and being compelled to be bullish. I don’t like the feeling of that second thing very much. Anyway, there is a gap and do you know what? Last summer’s rally filled a similar gap (not shown here) from late January 2018, proceeded upward into a nice bull trap, and then October happened. FYI. The bears were disoriented and thus pissed all last summer. But any self-respecting bull trap would by definition piss the bears off because it’s the same psychology that traps the bulls, only in reverse.

spx

So SPX is finally at its top-test limit, with its leadership chain (SOX>NDX>SPX) still strong as NDX is at new highs and SOX is well into new highs. We also have the scenario of SPX to 3000 (+/-) open if it is to hit point 5 on a potential Megaphone. Continue reading "Goldilocks Now, But She'll Be Vanquished" →

Precious Metals: Wash, Rinse...

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

Before the promotional corners of the gold community start with the conspiracies, excuse making and general placing of blame everywhere but where it belongs, let’s simply note that this correction was indicated (by sentiment) as far back as February 22nd. On that day I made a post quoting three anonymous sources within the community, firing up the troops to be hyper bullish… as in a gold price of $1400 promptly before a “parabolic slingshot” on the way to $3000 off of a “gargantuan pattern” (that had not even appeared yet and was but a figment of a fertile imagination).

The quotes and targets were compliments of different sources melded together for a mouthwatering smorgasbord of greed for gold bugs to sink their teeth into. It was a classic contrary indicator as the sector was touted far and wide while already overbought and obviously bullish. It was confirmation of the greediest hopes of the greediest and/or newest, most naive gold bugs (putting aside for a minute that gold itself is not a price play, but a value play within the leverage-rigged casino called the financial markets).

We are all wrong at times. My point here is that you can state your case humbly, be wrong and try to do better next time or you can state your case in an emotionally charged manner, suck in some newbies, be wrong and then do it the hell again!… and again… and again. That is what I have observed over nearly 20 years of closely watching the sector. The spin cycle repeats over and over because new marks are being minted in the markets all the time. Continue reading "Precious Metals: Wash, Rinse..." →