Preview Issue #6: Favorable Healthcare Political Backdrop and Eli Lilly Disappoints

INO Health & Biotech Stock Guide

Preview Issue #6 - December 13th, 2016

BIOTECH, HEALTH & PHARMA NEWS

The Political backdrop changed in ways virtually no survey had predicted and come 2017 the United Sates will inaugurate Donald Trump as the new president. As a sense of certainty took a few hours to digest as the presidential news flowed into the markets, essentially uprooting the pricing-in of a Clinton victory, pre-market trading was volatile with the Dow dropping over 700 points. This paradoxical presidential outcome quickly brought the Dow back to breakeven and ended the day up ~300 points. This post Trump victory has continued to rally the markets with what is now being coined as the “Trump Rally” as the Dow has broken all-time highs to power past the 19,000 benchmark. This rally has disproportionally benefited healthcare related stocks ranging from pharmaceutical companies to pharmacies and the wholesalers in-between. Continue reading "Preview Issue #6: Favorable Healthcare Political Backdrop and Eli Lilly Disappoints"

Preview Issue #5 - The Political Seesaw, Proposition 61 Defeated and Notable Earnings

INO Health & Biotech Stock Guide

Preview Issue #5 - November 10th, 2016

BIOTECH, HEALTH & PHARMA NEWS

THE POLITICAL SEESAW

Political uncertainty has roiled the markets as of late with initial predictions pricing-in a Clinton victory. As election night unfolded and a Trump victory was evident, the markets responded negatively in pre-market trading with the Dow dropping over 700 points. Upon the realization that Trump was in fact the president-elect, the markets bounced back and the Dow ended the day up ~300 points. In particular, healthcare related stocks from pharmaceutical companies to pharmacies and the wholesalers in-between all notched significant gains as traders viewed a republican controlled government in positive light with regard to this sector. The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (Ticker IBB) registered a $25 per share or 9% gain on the election news. It appears that investors are factoring-in a healthcare-friendly government that will be in contrast to the likes of Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders with regard to mergers and acquisitions and governmental regulations throughout the industry.

Continue reading "Preview Issue #5 - The Political Seesaw, Proposition 61 Defeated and Notable Earnings"

Biotech's Upward Trend - IBB Breaks $300

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction and Backdrop

As of recent, the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ:IBB) has caught an upward trend and briefly crossed the $300 per share threshold for the first time over the past 9 months. The political backdrop has been very contentious and even more so after two of the three presidential debates have wrapped up. I’ve written several pieces evaluating the massive sell-offs in the biotech sector and how extraneous events such as oil, China, interest rates and to a large extent political threats are merely noise in the larger picture. These external events provide great buying opportunities in high-quality companies or the cohort itself as represented by the sector ETF, IBB as a proxy. There’s no doubt that there’s at least a loose correlation if not a direct correlation between opportunistic political posturing by political front-runners (i.e. Hilary Clinton and Bernie Sanders) and the chronic price suppression of IBB. Each time a tweet is pushed out to social media regarding drug pricing and/or specific attacks on pharmaceutical companies, the entire cohort takes a significant hit as reflected in the price action of IBB. I contend that political posturing played a major role in the sell-off of the healthcare cohort and more specifically biotech stocks. Drug pricing was used as a centerpiece and scapegoat for political gains. Continue reading "Biotech's Upward Trend - IBB Breaks $300"

Preview Issue #4 - Mylan Capitulates, M&A Activity Heats Up and the Negative Political Backdrop

INO Health & Biotech Stock Guide

Preview Issue #3 - October 13th, 2016

BIOTECH, HEALTH & PHARMA NEWS

Mylan has been a whipping post as of late over its aggressive pricing increases regarding its EpiPen which uses an auto-injection of epinephrine to treat severe allergic reactions in primarily school age children. As a result, Mylan has ostensibly capitulated in the face of public and governmental scrutiny regarding its EpiPen pricing with implementing plans to offer a generic version and a $465 million settlement with the U.S. department of Justice to appease the public and improve its company image. The relentless congressional grilling on Capitol Hill and public backlash against Mylan and its CEO looks to have spurred the company into offering a generic and cheaper version of its EpiPen as well as providing more EpiPen via its access programs. However, congressional leaders continue to criticize Mylan over its alleged misrepresentation of profits and under paying Medicare in rebates. Congressional leaders stated that Mylan was dishonest when it incorrectly applied a statutory U.S. tax rate on its EpiPen revenue. The company is technically based ex-U.S. and thus pays a lower tax rate. Furthermore, the company has been accused of misclassifying the EpiPen to game the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program. Mylan has been reportedly paying a 13% rebate that is reserved for generics while the brand name EpiPen should be at a minimum of a 21% rebate rate. Congressional leaders have vowed to recoup the difference over the past five years Medicaid has spent on EpiPens (total Medicaid spending from 2011 through 2015 was reported to be $960 million for the EpiPen). To this end, Mylan just settled a $465 million lawsuit regarding this egregious misclassification under the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program. This negative publicity along with continuous political attacks has been a major overhang impacting biotech stocks. This public and contentious battle with government officials and the general public doesn’t bode well for the entire healthcare cohort. With ongoing presidential debates and political posturing still occurring, this will likely continue to be a source of volatility. Buying opportunities may present themselves throughout the sector due to extraneous political rhetoric regarding the drug pricing debate and the entire drug supply chain dynamics.

WHAT'S NEXT

Continue reading "Preview Issue #4 - Mylan Capitulates, M&A Activity Heats Up and the Negative Political Backdrop"

Preview Issue #3 - Pharma Acquisitions Change The Game

INO Health & Biotech Stock Guide

Preview Issue #3 - Sept 28th, 2016

BIOTECH, HEALTH & PHARMA NEWS

Myan’s CEO is grilled by congressional leaders on Capitol Hill, Allergan (NYSE:AGN) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) step up merger and acquisition activity and the presidential debates are underway.

Mylan has dominated the pharma news headlines recently over its aggressive pricing increases regarding its EpiPen which uses an auto-injection of epinephrine to treat severe allergic reactions, particularly deadly in school age children. Since Mylan acquired the product in 2007, and the “list” price increased from $100 in 2008 to its current “list” price of ~$600. Elijah Cummings Continue reading "Preview Issue #3 - Pharma Acquisitions Change The Game"