Records, Records and More Records

Stocks will end this record-setting week at or near record levels, with the S&P 500 gaining +.9% for the week, the DOW +.8%, and the NASDAQ outperforming with a gain of +1.4%. The records set this week by the three main indexes are as follows, S&P 500 - 1,931.50, DOW - 31,543.82, and the NASDAQ - 14,109.12.

On a weekly level, the market started hot on Monday but has steadily cooled off into the close on Friday after the record levels were achieved. As we head into the finale, the S&P 500 is looking at a daily gain of roughly +.10, the DOW has been waffling between gains and losses and is down about -.11% as I recorded this video, and the NASDAQ is up the same as the S&P 500 with an increase of +.10%. Continue reading "Records, Records and More Records"

Can You Imagine Bitcoin At $103,000?

Some investors believe that the price of Bitcoin could hit $100k. In this post, I'll share some measurements I made in the bitcoin chart to see if there is some evidence for such strong optimism.

There is a logarithmic (log) monthly chart of bitcoin below. I chose the log scale to show you the coin's relative performance. It will reveal the different angle of view on the price dynamics for you.

Monthly Bitcoin Chart

We can highlight two completed large moves to the upside marked with numbers accordingly. On the right side of each move, there are light blue statistics windows showing how much, how long, and how sharp the move was. Continue reading "Can You Imagine Bitcoin At $103,000?"

Markets Shake Off Disappointing Jobs Number

The Labor Department said the U.S. added 49,000 jobs in January, slightly below the 50,000 payrolls expected by economists. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3%, better than projections of 6.7%. December's numbers were revised much lower, with the month posting a loss of 227,000 from the initial reading of 140,000 jobs lost.

After suffering their worst week in months, the major indexes will wrap up the week with five straight days of gains ending with their best week since November. The S&P 500 will post a weekly gain of +4.7%, the DOW +3.9%, and the NASDAQ will outperform with a significant gain of +6%.

The U.S. dollar continues to push higher with a weekly gain of +1% and trading back above $91 for the first time since November. This week's gain will mark back-to-back weekly gains for the dollar. Continue reading "Markets Shake Off Disappointing Jobs Number"

Stock Market Feels The Squeeze

The DOW dropped more than 600 pts Friday to finish January with its worst week since October losing over -3.2%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ couldn't avoid a selloff, with both indexes losing -3.3% and -3.4%, respectively. The reason for the losses, a short squeeze of all short squeezes.

It started on January 25th when a group of retail investors identified Gamestop Corp (GME) as a buy on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum. This group of day traders continued to encourage each other to pile into GameStop's shares and call options, creating a massive short squeeze that inflicted pain for hedge funds betting against the stock. So much so that the trading app, Robinhood, seized trading mid-week of GME stock as well as several other stocks. After resuming trading Thursday, Robinhood has been limiting the number of shares that the retail investor can purchase.

All told, the short-selling hedge funds have suffered a loss of nearly 20 billion year to date, including a nearly $8 billion loss on Friday as the GME kept ripping higher. Still, short-sellers mostly are holding onto their bearish positions, or they are being replaced by new hedge funds willing to bet against the stock. GameStop shares that have been borrowed and sold short have declined by just about 5 million over the last week, marking an 8% dip in the short interest, according to S3. Most of the short-covering occurred on Thursday when the stock fell for the first time in six days, according to data from S3 Partners. Continue reading "Stock Market Feels The Squeeze"

Stocks Set New Record Highs

As expected, when there's a change of power, stocks have been all over the board this week, and after hitting record levels on Thursday, the major indexes are pulling back a touch heading into the weekend. The record highs now sit at 3,861.45 for the S&P 500, 31,27.22 for the DOW, and 13,560.22 for the NASDAQ.

But despite Friday's weakness, major averages are on pace to post a winning week. The S&P 500 is up +2.2% for the week so far. The DOW is up +0.6%, and the NASDAQ is up +3.8%.

Bitcoin took one on the chin this week, losing over -10% as we head into the weekend. The reason for the sudden selloff? Janet Yellen's comments about Bitcoin this week. She suggested on Tuesday that lawmakers "curtail" the use of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin over concerns that they are "mainly" used for illegal activities. Continue reading "Stocks Set New Record Highs"