Tag: Chris Vermeulen

Has Bitcoin Reached Its Peak?

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

We hope you enjoyed the brief holiday break… it seems Bitcoin has been busy while the markets have been resting! Bitcoin enthusiasts are adamant that the price rally has just started a parabolic move higher. From a technical standpoint, this current rally certainly appears to have gone parabolic. As any trader already understands, what goes up may eventually come crashing downward.

My research team and I believe failure at the current highs would represent a clear technical divergence pattern between price and the RSI indicator. Additionally, the current rally that started on December 20 consists of a $10,850 rally phase. The previous rally from October 20 to December 2 consisted of a $9,200 rally phase. We believe this current rally phase from December 11 could be a Wave 5 rally (almost equal to the Wave 3 rally range). If our researchers are correct, this final rally phase could come crashing downward after reaching these peak levels above $28,000.

This 4 Hour Bitcoin chart highlights the incredible price rally that has taken place over the past 16+ days – a rally of over $10,000. It also highlights two very clear price rally phases – creating an A-B-C price wave pattern.

Bitcoin

This Daily Bitcoin chart highlights the two, almost identical in size, which has created a price peak above $28,000. It also highlights the technical divergence between price and the RSI indicator in the lower pane. Continue reading "Has Bitcoin Reached Its Peak?" →

Stock Market Ready For A Pause

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

Weeks after the Election Rally initiated a moderately strong upside breakout rally, our Custom Index charts suggest the US stock market may be ready for a brief pause in trending before any new trends continue. Global traders and investors jumped into the US stock market just days before the US elections expecting something big to take place. The rally that initiated just days before the US election pushed our Custom Index charts well into the upper range of the 2016 to 2018 upward sloping price channel. This suggests the US stock markets have ended the downward price reversion and are now attempting to extend into the upward price channel – attempting to resume the upward trending that started after the 2016 elections.

Weekly Smart Cash And Volatility Indexes

The Weekly Smart Cash Index, below, highlights the impressive rally recently and the upward sloping price channel that is back in play for price. The highlighted range of the upward sloping price channel is actually the lower half of the std deviation range of the 2016 to 2018 price channel. So, as of right now, the Smart Cash Index price level has yet to really breach the middle of this channel and is still only within the lower half of the channel. Still, the support near the lower boundary of this level has been retested two or three times over the past six months and held. This suggests the lower channel level (the lower heavy BLUE line) is now acting as moderate price support.

stock market

The speed of the recent upside price rally on this Smart Cash Index chart suggests that current price congestion may be an indication that the US stock market has reached a point where it will pause and stall a bit before attempting any new rally. From the recent lows near the end of October to the current highs, the current rally represents a 50% Fibonacci price expansion of the range from the March 2020 lows to the highs in August 2020. The 50% expansion range is a very common Fibonacci level that can typically prompt market price pauses or reversals. Continue reading "Stock Market Ready For A Pause" →

How To Spot The End Of An Excess Phase - Part 2

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

In Part I of this research article, my research team and I highlighted the five unique components of an Excess Phase peak and breakdown process. We are sharing this data with you because we believe the US stock market has already meandered 2.5 years past the end of a US Stock Market Appreciation phase and is well into an Excess Phase Peaking process. This becomes very important for traders because risks are much higher in these late Excess Phase stages because volatility is usually 4x to 6x higher than previous phases. Additionally, psychologically, many traders want the rally to continue and deeply believe the end of this phase is “just a pullback in a bigger trend”. This can be very dangerous as traders sometimes continue to buy into deeper price corrections – leveraging their accounts to the hilt thinking “they are going to make a killing when the rally resumes”.

Exploring Past Excess Phase Peak/Breakdown Events

Excess Phases and Blow-Off Peaks/Bottoms can become very addictive for certain people – especially those that have gotten into the trend before the Excess Phase began. These people are often “die-hard” believers that the trend will never stop rallying and can sometimes leverage themselves into very dangerous positions.

If you recall from the first part of this research article, there are five phases to the Excess Phase price decline and we believe each of these five phases is fairly common for all excess phase breakdowns: Continue reading "How To Spot The End Of An Excess Phase - Part 2" →

How To Spot The End Of An Excess Phase - Part 1

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

If you have been following my team’s research posts recently, we have highlighted some interesting new research related to Appreciation/Depreciation phases in the US stock market and how that relates to Gold. Today we will explore another method of identifying the different phases of market trends that appears to show very clear Appreciation/Depreciation phases and extended end-phase blow-off tops and bottoms.

My research team and I believe the current rally in the US stock markets represents an end-phase blow-off top after a 9.5-year Appreciation phase that began in mid-2009. We believe it is very important for traders to understand these larger Appreciation/Depreciation cycles and how the Blow-Off end phases often create extreme volatility and price rotation.

Below, we are using a custom EURUSD/JPYUSD index divided by GOLD as the base Candlestick chart and have applied the real Gold price levels on the chart for visual reference. Near the bottom of the chart, we are showing the RSI indicator, the TSICCI indicator, and the RSI + MFI Indicator that helps to highlight the broad market trends and cycle phases. We want you to pay attention to the GREEN and RED arrows we’ve drawn on this chart showing the Appreciation/Depreciation phases of Gold and the broader US stock markets in EUR/JPY currency form. This method of charting these phases takes a bit of patience and understanding. We are looking for correlations to US stock market trends in relation to precious metals, and we must consider the end-phase process.

Excess Phase

The end-phase process, after any appreciation or depreciation phase, often includes a very volatile “blow-off” period where trends continue beyond the end of the actual price phase. This happens because the momentum of the previous price move has yet to realize the transitional shift in underlying appreciation/depreciation factors. Traders still want the rally in the stock market or metals to continue, so they chase after the excess phase rally until the momentum of the move fails. Continue reading "How To Spot The End Of An Excess Phase - Part 1" →

Monthly Dark Cloud Cover Pattern May Be Calling The Top

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

Research Highlights:

  • A Dark Cloud Cover pattern is a Japanese Candlestick Pattern that is typically associated with major top setups
  • Critical Support on the SPY highlighted by multiple technical analysis strategies suggests 335~335.25 is acting as a major support level
  • If price stays below the $339.95 level, then we interpret the trend as being Bearish. If price moves above the $343.55 level, it is Bullish

Critical Support on the SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY) highlighted by multiple technical analysis strategies suggests 335~335.25 is acting as a major support level. The rally in the markets that started late Sunday and carried forward into early trading on Monday, September 28, 2020, suggests the market is attempting to rally above this support level to establish a potential momentum base. My advanced price modeling systems and Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs (originating from the 2009 bottom) have clearly identified this area as a critical resistance/support zone.

The first chart below highlights the SPY Monthly chart data and shows the recent peak in price that broke through the major resistance level near 335, then collapsed back below that same level. Prior to this recent collapse, the COVID-19 peak in February also briefly touched this same resistance level – confirming it as valid. We believe the current price activity suggests the markets are attempting to form some sort of price base above this $335 level on the SPY.

Dark Cloud Cover Pattern

As you can see from the recent highs on the chart above, there is a new Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc range set up by the COVID-19 collapse that may interrupt this Base Setup process. Look for the smaller OBLIQUE on the chart near where the word “Support” is. This is a new Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc that reflects the most recent price range activity into targeted Fibonacci based price zones. Continue reading "Monthly Dark Cloud Cover Pattern May Be Calling The Top" →