Tag: cooling degree days (CDDs)

How The Natural Gas Storage Glut Has Been Cut This Summer

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports cooling degree day (CDD) data for every seven-day period by state. From that data, they construct a populated-weighted national total.

CDDs are the difference between the daily temperature mean (high temperature plus low temperature divided by two) and 65°F. If the temperature mean is above 65°F, we subtract 65 from the mean.

Example: The high temperature for a particular day was 90°F and the low temperature was 66°F. The temperature mean for that day was: Continue reading "How The Natural Gas Storage Glut Has Been Cut This Summer" →

Natural Gas Producers Pressuring Futures Prices Lower

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Natural gas futures prices rose by 2.0% last week (ending August 2nd to correspond to the data below) then dropped back to close the week 10 cents lower at $2.77.

NYMEX Nat Gas Futures Nearby Month

Prices rose in advance of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Thursday storage report in anticipation of a draw in inventory, which was confirmed in the data release. As a result, the year-over-year storage glut was cut to 13.4%. Continue reading "Natural Gas Producers Pressuring Futures Prices Lower" →

Heat Wave To Cut Natural Gas Storage Glut

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Predict Center (CPC) is forecasting a continuation of a major heat wave this week ending July 30th. Nearly every single state is predicted to experience higher than normal temperatures. In some states, such as Washington and Oregon, cooling degree days (CDDs) are forecast to be more than double their normal levels. However, in the two states that burn the most natural gas at power plants, Texas and Florida, the heightened temperatures will be more muted.

Forecast

Based on NOAA's state-by-state cooling degree day forecast, weighted by natural gas-weighted electricity production, I estimate that CDDs will be 30% higher than normal and 12% higher than in the same week last year.

Nat-Gas Use-Weighted Cooling Degree Days Graph (Forecast)

For the year-to-date, cumulative CDDs are 22% higher than normal but the same as than during the year-to-date in 2015. Continue reading "Heat Wave To Cut Natural Gas Storage Glut" →

Natural Gas Prices Surging With Dog Days Of Summer Ahead

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Chart of Natural Gas Futures Prices

Natural gas futures prices have risen almost 80-percent from their lows in March, with much of the gain occurring over the past month. Based on my analysis of the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports, issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the vast majority of the buying that propelled prices came from short speculators who covered (bought) to limit further losses. Since early March, they had purchased more than 100,000 futures and options contracts (see graph below). Continue reading "Natural Gas Prices Surging With Dog Days Of Summer Ahead" →