Tag: Crude Oil Supply

OPEC's Claim To Eliminate The Oil Glut By June Unsupported By Data

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


OPEC reported in its January Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) that OECD commercial stocks fell to 2.993 billion barrels, around 271 million barrels above the latest five-year average. Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Khalid Al-Falih, stated last week that production cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC countries may reduce global oil inventories to the five-year average by June thereby rendering a continuation of the cuts unnecessary.

But three closely-watched sources of energy data do not support such a drop in global oil inventories. The Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC itself published their monthly reports in January, attempting to include impacts of the production cuts. Two of the sources, EIA and OPEC, provide data that show (or imply) stock builds over the first half, and the IEA data show a drawdown but not of the magnitude suggested by Mr. Al-Fahil. Continue reading "OPEC's Claim To Eliminate The Oil Glut By June Unsupported By Data" →

Global Oil Glut To Build Through 2018, EIA Says

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


The Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for January, and for the first time provided its projections for 2018. After all of the hype about the OPEC production cut, it may come as a surprise that the EIA is projecting a rise in global oil inventories in 2017 and 2018.

Specifically, the EIA had estimated that OECD oil stocks ended at 3.101 billion barrels at the end of 2016. It's forecasting them to rise further to 3.127 and 3.158 billion at the end of 2017 and 2018, respectively. The 5-year ending average as of December 2014, before the glut started, was 2.666 billion. Continue reading "Global Oil Glut To Build Through 2018, EIA Says" →

Refinery Acquisitions Reduce Saudi Risks, Increase U.S. Energy Security Risks

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


A recent article noted that Saudi Arabia Is Buying Up America's Oil Assets. Saudi Aramco is buying U.S. refining and petrochemical assets as well as energy and technology companies through its Saudi Aramco Energy Ventures LLC fund.
Congress has recently received a Long-Term Strategic Review (LTSR) of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The SPR's mission is to protect the U.S. from severe petroleum interruptions. The LTSR was intended to identify the key challenges that could impact the ability of the SPR to accomplish its mission.

I submit that it ignores a key challenge, the foreign ownership of refineries and petrochemical plants, that could render the SPR crude supplies meaningless.

The existence of the SPR is a key factor determining oil prices because the market does not have to factor in large interruptions of crude supply into prices because it knows the government has the SPR and will use it. Continue reading "Refinery Acquisitions Reduce Saudi Risks, Increase U.S. Energy Security Risks" →

Why Oil Is At $50 With An Inventory Glut

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), world oil inventories are about 425 million barrels higher than their “normal” levels. In the U.S., inventories stand a 1.368 billion barrels, a few million off their recent peak. Given that supply glut, how could oil futures prices be at $50 after falling below $30?

U.S. Crude and Product Stocks

One answer is that the futures market assesses future developments. As discussed below, the peak of the glut appears behind us and the U.S. oil market is tightening, as rising demand narrows the supply-demand gap. This is best observed by looking at the trends in inventory storage changes for both petroleum products and crude oil. Continue reading "Why Oil Is At $50 With An Inventory Glut" →