Should Janet Yellen Be The Next Federal Reserve Chief?

The challenges for Janet Yellen if she becomes the next Federal Reserve chair will require both the steely intellect and the personable style that many attribute to her.

Deciding when to slow the Fed's economic stimulus. Forging consensus from a fractious policy committee. Calculating the effects of any economic slowdown from Washington's budget fight. Facing volatile financial markets. Absorbing new members at the Fed.

First, though, Yellen will have to get there: She'll need to overcome Washington's toxic political environment and win confirmation from the Senate.

It's almost enough to make you wonder why she'd want the job, but a better question is....

Should Janet Yellen be the next Federal Reserve chief?

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Yellen is widely seen as a "dove" on Fed policy: She stresses the need to use the Fed's tools to boost growth and reduce unemployment in the sluggish aftermath of the Great Recession, rather than worry about igniting future inflation. Continue reading "Should Janet Yellen Be The Next Federal Reserve Chief?"

Summer Is Over and Larry Summers Is Out Of The Running

Larry Summers officially fell on his sword over the weekend by removing his name for consideration to be the next Federal Reserve chairman. I'm sure this came as a relief to the White House (they probably orchestrated the move), who has more than enough on their plate right now with Syria and finding more money to fund the government at the end of September. It also sparked a huge overnight fall in the stock market.

So the question is, are we going to see a female dollar? I hope so, I think it could be a nice change to see what a female could do as chairperson of the Fed. I am of course referring to Janet Yellen, who is number two at the Fed. One thing I think about government and politics is that you can be completely incompetent and if you just stay around long enough, you get pushed up the food chain to the top job. The official name for this phenomenon is the Peter Principal. The Peter Principle is a proposition that states that the members of an organization where promotion is based on achievement, success, and merit will eventually be promoted beyond their level of ability. The principle is commonly phrased, "Employees tend to rise to their level of incompetence." Continue reading "Summer Is Over and Larry Summers Is Out Of The Running"

U.S. Financial System: Is It Finally Stable?

By Elliott Wave International

Four years after we brushed up against "financial Armageddon," did you think you'd be reading this?

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said...banks need to have more capital at hand in order to ensure the financial system is stable. Bernanke said regulators were taking steps to force financial institutions to hold higher capital buffers...

- Reuters, April 9

It appears our financial system is still not as stable as it needs to be. But guess who relaxed the banking system's "capital buffers" in the first place?

The Fed increased the credit in the system in the 1990s by the de facto removal of reserve requirements for banks.

- Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave Theorist, November 2011

Prechter's September 2011 Theorist provides this additional insight:

In the late 1990s and mid 2000s, the loan-to-deposit ratio for U.S. banks was nearly 1.00, meaning that almost all deposits were lent out. That shortfall alone was a serious problem, because if even 5% of depositors had decided to withdraw their money, banks would have been unable to pay. Some of the banks' loans were quickly callable, but by 2006, the credit-fueled real estate boom had claimed a large percentage of outstanding loans, both inside and outside the banking system. These loans are not quickly callable. The problem was serious in 2002 and enormous in 2006. Now it has become acute, because many loans are becoming fossilized, as the market for mortgage investing has dried up while foreclosures on the "collateral" have been slowed by court actions and politics. Continue reading "U.S. Financial System: Is It Finally Stable?"

Adam's Thoughts on Operation Twist, Hewlett-Packard and Netflix

Did you miss MarketClub TV last night? If you did you missed a great intro/rant by Adam. He covered the announcement by the Fed, news from Hewlett-Packard about their CEO, Netflix's announcement and of course the Trade Triangles for the day.

We've cut out the intro for you to watch here.

Watch the full episode here.

We would love to hear your thoughts on this video. Please leave your thoughts in the comments section.

Every Success,

The MarketClub Team.

Greenspan denies blame for crisis, admits 'flaw'

From our Media Partner Associated Press

Greenspan denies blame for crisis, admits 'flaw' this minute
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER and MARCY GORDON
Associated Press Writers

(AP:WASHINGTON) Badgered by lawmakers, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan denied the nation's economic crisis was his fault on Thursday but conceded the meltdown had revealed a flaw in a lifetime of economic thinking and left him in a "state of shocked disbelief."

Greenspan, who stepped down in 2006, called the banking and housing chaos a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami" that led to a breakdown in how the free market system functions. And he warned that things would get worse before they get better, with rising unemployment and no stabilization in housing prices for "many months."

Gloomy economic reports backed him up. New jobless claims soared to just under 500,000 for last week, and Goldman Sachs, Chrysler and Xerox all said they were cutting thousands more workers. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial bounced erratically all day before finishing up 172 points _ after a two-day drop of nearly 750.

The financial crisis even prompted the Republican Greenspan, a staunch believer in free markets, to propose that government consider tougher regulations, including requiring financial firms that package mortgages into securities to keep a portion as a check on quality.

He said other regulatory changes should be considered, too, in such areas as fraud.

Also looking for solutions, another banking regulator told Congress the government was working on a loan-guarantee plan that could help many homeowners escape foreclosure as part of the $700 billion bailout legislation. That plan is being discussed by the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., said FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, who is pushing the idea.

Greenspan's interrogation by the House Oversight Committee was a far cry from his 18 1/2 years as Fed chairman, when he presided over the longest economic boom in the country's history. He was viewed as a free-market icon on Wall Street and held in respect bordering on awe by most members of Congress.

Not now. At an often contentious four-hour hearing, Greenspan, former Treasury Secretary John Snow and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox were repeatedly accused by Democrats on the committee of pursuing an anti-regulation agenda that set the stage for the biggest financial crisis in 70 years.

"The list of regulatory mistakes and misjudgments is long," panel chairman Henry Waxman declared.

Greenspan, 82, acknowledged under questioning that he had made a "mistake" in believing that banks, operating in their own self-interest, would do what was necessary to protect their shareholders and institutions. Greenspan called that "a flaw in the model ... that defines how the world works."

He acknowledged that he had also been wrong in rejecting fears that the five-year housing boom was turning into an unsustainable speculative bubble that could harm the economy when it burst. Greenspan maintained during that period that home prices were unlikely to post a significant decline nationally because housing was a local market.

He said Thursday that he held to that belief because until the current housing slump there had never been such a significant decline in prices nationwide. He said the current financial crisis had "turned out to be much broader than anything that I could have imagined."

Greenspan's much-anticipated appearance before the House panel came as the Senate Banking Committee held its own hearing on what the government is doing now to get out of the mess.

Assistant Treasury Secretary Neel Kashkari, who is overseeing the $700 billion financial rescue effort that passed Congress on Oct. 3, said the administration was not only working to get federal purchases of bank stock started quickly but also the program to mop up troubled mortgage-related assets. He also said the government was working to make sure that directives in the legislation to help struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure were being addressed.

Kashkari said the plan could include setting standards that banks should follow for reworking mortgages to make them more affordable. He said the administration was considering a recommendation to provide government loan guarantees to cover the reworked mortgages to make the program more attractive to banks.

"We are passionate about doing everything we can to avoid preventable foreclosures," Kashkari told the committee.

The FDIC's Bair told the same Senate panel that the government needs to do more to help tens of thousands of people avoid foreclosure.

She said the FDIC was working "closely and creatively" with the Treasury Department to come up with a plan.

Greenspan was asked to defend a variety of actions he took as Federal Reserve chairman _ resisting recommendations to use the Fed's powers to crack down on subprime mortgages, for one. And opposing efforts to impose regulations on derivatives, the complex financial instruments that include credit default swaps, which have also figured prominently in the current crisis.

He said that outside of credit default swaps, the bulk of financial derivatives had not caused major problems. He said the boom in subprime lending occurred because of the huge demand for investment opportunities in a global economy, and he blamed the crash on a failure by investors to properly assess the risks from such mortgages, which went to borrowers with weak credit.

As for firms that package mortgages into securities, he said, "As much as I would prefer it otherwise, in this financial environment I see no choice but to require that all securitizers retain a meaningful part of the securities they issue."

On the billions of dollars of losses suffered by financial institutions because of their investments in subprime mortgages, Greenspan said he had been shocked by the failure of banking officials to protect their shareholders from their bad loan decisions.

"A critical pillar to market competition and free markets did break down," Greenspan said. "I still do not fully understand why it happened."

SEC Chairman Cox told the House panel that "somewhere in this terrible mess, laws were broken." And Snow said that lawmakers should have responded more quickly to his pleas for stronger regulation for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were taken over by the government last month.

In the meantime, Kashkari, the Treasury official overseeing the bailout program, said there has been much progress, resulting in "numerous signs of improvement in our markets and in the confidence in our financial institutions." Still, he cautioned, "the markets remain fragile."

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.