Tag: Gary Tanashian

A Post-Powell View Of USD, S&P 500 And Gold

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The Fed blinked. This was not news to Macro Tourist Kevin Muir or readers of Biiwii.com, which is very pleased to publish his work.

Fed Finally Blinks

Amid a weakening global economy, gathering signs of weakening in the US economy and a dump in inflation expectations, Jerome Powell implied that the Fed may be going on hold for a while after a December rate hike.

This graph from SG Cross Asset Research/Equity Quant by way of Kevin Muir’s article attempts to show that the accumulated rate hike tightening and “shadow” tightening as a result of QE suspension has now met or exceeded the levels that preceded the last two economic recessions.

Jerome Powell

Add in very high profile haranguing by Donald Trump, the above-noted drop in inflation expectations and economic weakening (that began with our Semi sector signals nearly a year ago) and it sure is not surprising that the Fed may take its foot off the break for a while, and possibly a long while.

So what is expected of our two main themes, the cyclical and risk ‘on’ stock market and the counter-cyclical and risk ‘off’ gold and the miners, which leverage gold’s counter-cyclical utility? Let’s check in after this week’s events. Continue reading "A Post-Powell View Of USD, S&P 500 And Gold" →

Slowly We Turn... Gold Vs.

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Let’s take an in-day snapshot of gold vs. several key competitors (for your investment dollars/euros/yen, etc.) and check the progress in turning the macro from risk ‘on’ to risk ‘off’, cyclical to counter-cyclical.

Gold/Commodities motors along above the SMA 200. The move has been hysterical, and thus looks impulsive. That could mean something as we look back in hindsight one day.

gld.dbc

Gold/Oil has been the driver of the above. Continue reading "Slowly We Turn... Gold Vs." →

Cyclical Commodities Continue To Weaken

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Crude Oil and Industrial Metals continue downward. This is significant per this NFTRH monthly chart showing these items and the broad CRB itself having hit trend lines from the 2008 highs. These pullbacks from long-term trend lines are notable and qualify cyclical commodities as risk indicators for the cyclical macro.

industrial metals

Here is oil’s weekly view. Key support was lost last week as noted in this article: Positive Implications for Gold Miners if Crude Oil Breaks Down. I expect currently oversold WTI to rally from the noted support area, but remain ‘not bullish’ on this cyclical commodity (and remain in scouting mode for the upcoming gold miner buying opportunity). Continue reading "Cyclical Commodities Continue To Weaken" →

Positive Implications For Gold Miners If Crude Oil Breaks Down

Posted on by The INO.com Team

It’s an over obsessed upon commodity, previously hyped for its (Hubbert’s) “peak” status by “experts” like T Boone Pickens and a whole clown show of promoters.

Now WTI Crude Oil has reached a thick resistance zone (as managed in NFTRH for the last couple of years) and may be breaking down from a peak of a whole other kind. Here is the monthly chart we use.

Gold Miners

It is preliminary, and one weekend OPEC jawbone could put oil back up in the consolidation. But as of now the price has ticked below the previous 2018 low to close the week. It is not a good look… unless you’re a gold bug, that is. More on that later. Continue reading "Positive Implications For Gold Miners If Crude Oil Breaks Down" →

Gold Stocks Will Benefit From Cyclical Change

Posted on by The INO.com Team

As we have noted over the many years of the gold sector’s bear market, the gold miners will not rally for real until the real sector and macro fundamentals come into place. Those fundamentals do not include commonly promoted inflation, China/India “love” trades, a US dollar collapse or especially, war, pestilence or any other human misery than economic. The more astute gold bugs do not fall for that.

The gold miners are counter-cyclical as they leverage gold’s performance (whether positive or negative) relative to cyclical assets and markets. Hence the handy picture showing the key fundamental items with the 4 largest planets orbiting the golden sun being the most important.

macro fundamentals

So the 3 Amigos (of the macro) were saddled up last year in order to guide us to the point of macro change. Linked here is the most recent update from October 19. In this post let’s look at just one macro fundamental indicator among several important macro and sector fundamentals; the ratio of gold to developed stock markets.

As a side note, the macro fundamentals indicate whether the larger economic cycle and investor sentiment backdrops are right for the gold sector and the sector fundamentals that we track indicate whether gold mining companies are likely to improve, operationally. The gold stock sector is a real value now, assuming the turns in stock markets are for real, unlike the February spike down. Continue reading "Gold Stocks Will Benefit From Cyclical Change" →