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Chart of The Week - Corn

Posted on by admin

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

As we begin the 2014 planting season, our attention turns to the September 2014 Corn Options. September Corn futures (CBOT:ZC.U14.E) have started out well, supported by a report last week that the crop is already slightly behind in planted acreage (6% vs. 9% estimated). Opening the new week, we see a cool and rainy forecast across the Midwest along with severe weather. We are currently seeing up to 5 inches of rainfall expected over half of the Midwest.

Due to the weather forecast, the planting pace is likely to slow down dramatically this weekend and next week. The 10-year average plating pace for Illinois by April 28th is a little under 40%, while Indiana and Iowa are both about 30%. Historically speaking, we are well behind as plantings could reach near 20% for Monday's update but stall at this figure for the week due to weather delays. The recent weather has added support to the Corn futures, and any further delays should make the price rally considerably.

Since the start of the new year we have been in a strong up-trend in the Corn market. Continue reading "Chart of The Week - Corn" →

Chart of The Week - Crude Oil

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

As the week starts, our attention turns to the June Crude Oil futures (NYMEX:CL.M14.E). After gaining nearly $7/barrel in less than a month, the market has recently consolidated around $103.50/barrel as it begins to decide which direction it will take. It appears that some of the recent slowing of the market is due to profit-taking, as the recent sharp up-trend may have gained too much too soon. There are a number of fundamental factors at play in the market, many of which seem to work in contrast with each other: support from Russia-Ukraine uncertainty, resistance from ample supply concerns, and improved demand prospects following solid US Economic data last week. With a number of different fundamental factors in play – and uncertainty over which fundamental factor the market will focus on moving forward – I will focus on the technical aspects of the market for a potential trading opportunity.

Thursday’s range last week was consolidated within the previous day’s range and a move above or below that range should give us good direction to go off of. Continue reading "Chart of The Week - Crude Oil" →

Chart of The Week - Gold

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

After a week where we saw a correction in stock index futures, we will be looking at June Gold Futures (NYMEX:GC.M14.E) to receive a possible flight-to-safety bid. The focus remains on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where the prospect for violence is extremely high. This shifts the gold market’s focus from physical commodity fundamentals to safe haven issues. Further Russia-Ukraine tensions or continued pressure on stock index futures can provide an influx of buyers in the gold market.

On the technical side, gold has shown a lot of strength after rebounding from its April 1, 2014 low of 1278.3. Last Friday’s session was relatively quiet, consolidating and trading within the previous day’s range between 1324 and 1310.8. For this reason, along with multiple fundamental catalysts, I would be a buyer in June Gold futures and look for it to reach $1350.00 in the near future. Continue reading "Chart of The Week - Gold" →

Chart of The Week - Soybeans

Posted on by admin

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

This week's focus shifts to the grain markets and looming USDA reports that will be released during today's trading session. The general sense is that Soybean planted acreage could be higher than expectations. The Department of Agriculture is expected to report a significant shift in planted acreage to Soybeans from Corn because of favorable pricing. In the past week, this sentiment seemed to be continually priced into the market. Any indication of less than expected acreage could add fire to an already bullish market and cause May Soybeans to make a move toward $15.

As we turn to the May Soybean chart, we are able to clearly identify a very strong up-trend in the market since the start of the new year. After posting the high print of $14.60 on March 7, the market has consolidated as traders positioned themselves for today’s March 31st USDA report. With so much sentiment geared towards a large expected acreage in Soybeans, an underwhelming number is very possible. In this case, I would look to take a buying position in the Soybean market and look for $15/bushel in the near future. Continue reading "Chart of The Week - Soybeans" →

Chart of The Week - Euro Futures

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

This week’s focus turns to the June 2014 Euro currency futures, where recent weak March PMI results leads to a downward path of least resistance. The recent sell off has been supported by ongoing talk that the US might be closer to raising interest rates than previously thought, giving lift to the US Dollar.

We have seen a sharp retracement from the recent swing high of 139.66 posted on March 13, 2014. Last Wednesday and Thursday, we saw two sharp sell offs on increased volume, which would confirm a bearish sentiment for this week. Following the two day sell off, Friday saw a consolidation within Thursday’s range, and we open this week looking for a bearish continuation.

Continue reading "Chart of The Week - Euro Futures" →