Tag: nftrh

Closing the 2008 'Gap'

Posted on by admin

A disclaimer:  I am long and/or trading several regular 'bull stocks' (as well as short a couple).  Don't interpret the sober message below as a 'sell your stocks right now!' style bearish warning.  Indeed, after an expected choppy start to December I think more bull market mania, errr… rally, could still be ahead.  But it would be just dandy if people would keep their perspective along the way.

From the December 1 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 267):

In 2008 market and economic participants suffered a hard downside 'gap' in the prices of their assets and in the levels of their expectations.  The bull market that began in March of 2009 is doing a fine job of closing that gap and fully resetting the herd from the utter fear mode of Q4, 2008 to a 2007 or even 1999 style greed mode today. Continue reading "Closing the 2008 'Gap'" →

Janet Yellen Nails it

Posted on by The INO.com Team

From an earlier post by Biiwii.com guest Doug Noland:

Senator Dean Heller: "A quick question about quantitative easing: Do you see it causing an equity bubble in today’s stock market?"

Yellen: "I mean, stock prices have risen pretty robustly. But I think that if you look at traditional valuation measures, the kind of things that we monitor, akin to price-equity ratios, you would not see stock prices in territory that suggests bubble-like conditions. When we look at a measure of what’s called the equity risk premium, which is the differential between the expected return on stocks and safe assets like bonds, that premium is not – is somewhat elevated historically, which again suggests valuations that are not in bubble territory."

Thank you Ms. Yellen for testifying to my point.  Equities are not in a bubble by "traditional valuation measures", just as I have been saying.  If you are sincerely and actively bearish the market you had better be bearish because you either think monetary policy is about to fail (i.e. its efficacy is going to wane) or that policy makers are going to be forced to cease and desist, most likely by the Treasury bond market. Continue reading "Janet Yellen Nails it" →

Insurance in Wonderland

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The following is excerpted from the October 13 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole.  The segment followed a review of NFTRH's big picture stance on gold vs. various assets positively correlated to the global economy.  Specifically, the previous segment concluded that yes, the NFTRH big secular view is under threat by a technical analysis signal favoring US stocks over gold on the big picture per this monthly chart of SPX-Gold.  NFTRH first began managing this as the bottoming pattern broke above its neckline and then the EMA 10 crossed above the EMA 20 for the first time since 2001. Continue reading "Insurance in Wonderland" →

Gold Fixation

Posted on by The INO.com Team

What is it about gold that makes people view it differently than any other asset class, creating an almost religious fixation* on the metal?  As long-term monetary insurance, you would think that it would be among the more boring items; sort like insurance annuities.  But that is not the case.

Gold is routinely propped up on a pedestal and obsessed upon in the world of money and finance.  In actuality, gold is a geological element that has been deemed by humans to be money or to closely track monetary value, with a track record measured in centuries.   Why, there it is on WebElements‘ element chart bracketed by things like Mercury, Cadmium and Copernicium, among other 'precious' metals. Continue reading "Gold Fixation" →

U.S. Stock Market, Profits & Policy

Posted on by The INO.com Team

U.S. stocks generally remain on bullish trends in all time frames.  Further, the Debt Ceiling (and Government shutdown) theater seems to be playing out in the usual way that these events play out; the stock market has been correcting in an orderly way and seems to be waiting for an inevitable compromise between the White House and Republican leaders.  This of course would spur a next leg up if the usual script plays out.  That is how it looks, with a traditional bull catalyst (heavy media rotation of an Armageddon-like political event) in play.

Yet there is a negative in play that actually matters, as corporate forward profit guidance is degenerating.  Or is it really a negative?  Graph from Sentimentrader.com: Continue reading "U.S. Stock Market, Profits & Policy" →