Tag: Presidential Election 2016

Will There Be A November Surprise?

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


In its most recent Beige Book, covering late August through early October, released last week, the Federal Reserve noted that although economic “outlooks are positive, contacts in several sectors cite the upcoming presidential election as a source of near-term uncertainty, delaying some business decisions.”

The same could be said for the Fed itself. How much uncertainty has it created and business decisions has it delayed by its endless dawdling and indecisiveness on whether or not to raise interest rates? No matter who wins the vote, the election will end – maybe not on November 8, if it can be shown that someone did, in fact, rig the voting – but eventually, Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton will become president. But we have no such certitude that the Fed won’t continue to tease the markets about when it will start normalizing monetary policy. Continue reading "Will There Be A November Surprise?" →

The Fed Tease Continues - But For How Much Longer?

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


Way back in high school, my freshman algebra teacher told us about Zeno’s Paradox, which the Greek philosopher (Zeno, not my teacher) explained through the story of Achilles and the Tortoise. According to the story, the two were engaged in a footrace, but no matter how much faster Achilles could run compared to the tortoise, he could never quite catch up to him. Why? Because while Achilles could consistently halve the distance between himself and the slower-footed reptile, the gap between the two could be reduced fractionally an indefinite number of times, so, therefore, he could never catch up – theoretically speaking, of course.

I was reminded of that story when I read the media headlines about the release last week of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September 20-21 meeting. Once again, the Fed said it was almost, but not quite, ready to tighten monetary policy. This time, the Fed used the words “relatively soon” to describe the timing of its next rate increase, which would be the first one since last December.

“Several members judged that it would be appropriate to increase the target range for the federal funds rate relatively soon if economic developments unfolded about as the committee expected,” the minutes said. Also, those members – still the majority – who still wanted to “await further evidence” before voting for a rate hike said it was a “close call” in their decision to wait.

In other words, like Achilles chasing the tortoise, the Fed just keeps getting closer and closer to raising rates but just never gets to that point. Continue reading "The Fed Tease Continues - But For How Much Longer?" →

The Presidential Nominees Are Set

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


The political lines have been drawn, it’s Clinton verses Trump. I written several pieces evaluating the massive sell-offs in the biotech sector. Utilizing the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ:IBB) as a proxy, I proposed a loose correlation between opportunistic political posturing by political front-runners and the chronic price suppression of IBB. I content that political posturing played a significant role in the sell-off of the healthcare cohort and more specifically biotech stocks. Drug pricing was used as a centerpiece as the scapegoat for political gains. Throughout this political process, this rhetoric has negatively impacted the sector. IBB fell from $401 in July of 2015 to $240 in February of 2016 or alternatively a 40% hit. This sell-off coincided with political rhetoric aimed at the collective cohort of healthcare and biotech companies. I strongly felt that these events were seasonal and would eventually subside without any significant impact to the underlying stocks within IBB. I felt this political induced sell-off presented a great buying opportunity after the 40% decline. I put my money where my mouth was by purchasing two tranches of IBB at a strike price of $250 in February and June during the market-wide sell-off and the Brexit, respectively. I feel that this is great entry point for any long-term investor that desires exposure to the biotechnology sector.

Are Drug Prices Really The Culprit?

In terms of the overall cost to the healthcare system, drugs comprise less than 10% of the pie. Allergan CEO Brent Saunders stated in an interview with Jim Cramer on Mad Money (Figure 1): Continue reading "The Presidential Nominees Are Set" →

How You Can Profit From Those Annoying Political Campaign Ads

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Matt Thalman - INO.com Contributor - ETFs


With the Presidential Election just nine months away, now is a good time to start considering how 'you' the average American can benefit from this once every four-year circus event. I recently spoke about how it's likely firearm stocks could see a boost from this event, today I would like to discuss another industry likely to see revenues increase.

But, before we jump into how you can make money this election season, let's take a look at what is making this all possible.

During the 2008 Presidential Election more than $7 billion were spent according to Borrell Associate's estimates. In 2012, election spending was estimated to hit $9.8 billion. But as of now, the 2016 election cycle is expected to see $11.4 billion spent. Now these figures are not just for spending on Presidential campaigns, but all political office's votes will be held for this year. Continue reading "How You Can Profit From Those Annoying Political Campaign Ads" →

Needed: More Transparency at the Fed

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


The Federal Reserve is starting to feel some heat from both the right and the left about how secret its activities deserve to be from American taxpayers. The fact that next year is a presidential election year and the heat is being brought by two candidates for the Oval Office may mean that the pressure may amount to something this time.

On January 28 Sen. Rand Paul, R-KY, reintroduced his "Audit the Fed" bill that would subject the Fed's monetary policy discussions and decisions to audits by the Government Accountability Office (GAO).

"This secretive government-run bureaucracy promotes policies that have impacted the lives of all Americans," Paul said. "Citizens have the right to know why the Fed's policies have resulted in a stagnant economy and record numbers of people dropping out of the workforce."

Previous versions of Paul's bill – originally sponsored by his father, former presidential hopeful Ron Paul, and others – have gotten nowhere, largely because Democrats controlled the Senate. Now, of course, that body is now controlled by the Republicans. Paul got 30 co-sponsors to his bill. Continue reading "Needed: More Transparency at the Fed" →