Why Banks Fail

A lot, if not everything, in the world of finance, is based on trust: trust that the future would be better than the present; trust that a dollar bill would guarantee an equivalent worth of goods and services at a given point in time; and trust that wealth created would be safe, accessible, and transferable at all times.

So, when events like those unfolding over the past fortnight undermine one or more of the aforementioned collective beliefs, the ensuing risks can quickly become systemic and existential.

On February 24, KPMG signed an audit report giving SVB Financial, Silicon Valley Bank’s parent company, a clean bill of health for 2022.

On March 10, federal regulators announced that they had taken control of the bank, which reopened the following Monday as Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara.

This was the second-biggest bank failure since Washington Mutual’s collapse during the height of the 2008 financial crisis. It was soon followed by the third-biggest, with Signature Bank shuttered by the regulators to stem the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank’s failure.

The resulting crisis of confidence has somehow been contained with an assurance that all insured and uninsured depositors would get their money back, the announcement of a new lending program for banks, and 11 banks depositing $30 billion in the First Republic bank.

However, the contagion risk subsided only after claiming an illustrious victim from the other side of the Atlantic, with UBS agreeing to take over its troubled rival Credit Suisse for more than $3 billion in a deal engineered by Swiss regulators.

Since we are more or less up to speed, let’s look deeper into what can make banks seem unbankable in a little over two weeks. Continue reading "Why Banks Fail"

Was The Collapse of SVB a Black Swan?

According to some doomsayers, the stock market is on the brink of a crash, and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is being considered as a potential "Black Swan" event.

They believe it could trigger a domino effect similar to the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008. There are already indications of this, as the failure of SVB has had a ripple effect in Europe, with the second largest Swiss bank, Credit Suisse, also being hit.

YTD SPF IXG SIVB JPM BAC CS

Source: TradingView

In the comparative chart above there is a year-to-date dynamics of S&P 500 Financials index (SPF, black), the iShares Global Financials ETF (IXG, green), SVB Financial Group (SIVB, red), Credit Suisse (CS, orange), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, blue) and Bank of America (BAC, purple).

On the chart, all of the lines indicate negative performance, with each one below the zero mark. Indeed, SVB and CS are the ultimate losers, while BAC is also suffering a significant loss at -17.01%. Meanwhile, IXG, JPM, and SPF fared slightly better, with losses of -6.43%, -6.85%, and -10.35%, respectively.

This indicates that banking stocks around the world are losing ground following the trigger from SVB, as seen with the decline in IXG and the top two banks in the US. Continue reading "Was The Collapse of SVB a Black Swan?"

ETFs To Play The Banking Situation

With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, everyone is looking at the banking industry. Some think it has more room to fall, while others believe now is the best buying opportunity we have seen in a decade.

At this time, I believe it is too hard to pick which direction banks or the market overall is heading.

My reason for saying that is that very few people fully understand the real risk to the banking system at this time.

A few weeks ago, Wall Street banking analysts gave banks good stock ratings. Janet Yellen, the head of the Treasury Department, recently said the banking industry was healthy. Even Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, recently sat in front of congress and testified that the banking system was solid and well-capitalized.

Well, that certainly wasn't the case for SVB.

While I understand that when Janet Yellen or Fed Chairman Powell make these statements, they are speaking about the whole industry, not one-off banks, as we saw during the financial crisis in 07-08, it only takes a few small cracks in the system to open the flood gates.

And when the 15th largest bank in the U.S. fails, it's hard to ignore that crack, despite the argument that SVB is different from most other banks because they lend to riskier clients in the form of 'start-up' businesses.

The argument that SVB is and was different may make sense, but if that is true, how do you explain Credit Suisse needing a $50 billion loan from the Swiss National Bank?

Finally, for years we have been told that the banks, both here in the U.S. and worldwide, have parts on their balance sheets that are referred to as 'black boxes.' These are certain businesses or investments that we, outsiders, will never get to see. We will never know what those parts of the bank's business look like, and thus, how can we fully understand how healthy or sick a bank is until it's too late?

Maybe you understand the banks better than I do and still want to invest in them, whether long or short; let me give you some exchange-traded funds that you can buy to profit from a bank industry move in either direction. Continue reading "ETFs To Play The Banking Situation"

How to Steer Clear of the Silicon Valley Bank Meltdown

Editor’s Note: Our experts here at INO.com cover a lot of investing topics and great stocks every week. To help you make sense of it all, every Wednesday we’re going to pick one of those stocks and use Magnifi Personal to compare it with its peers or competitors. Here we go…


Bank stocks have dropped and markets are still spooked after last week’s collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s unclear how far the fallout will reach.

But amid all the talk of how many other banks are in trouble, the effects on a related industry has gotten very little attention.

We're talking about the mortgage-backed bond markets. See, according to an article from the Financial Times' Alphaville team, Silicon Valley Bank is still sitting on a $50 billion book of MBS (mortgage-backed securities). It is likely government regulators that have taken over Silicon Valley Bank will need to dump those bonds to help cover the cost of giving depositors all of their money back.

That possibility caused mayhem in the U.S. mortgage market on March 10, as investors rushed to get ahead of getting squashed by the bank’s potential MBS dump. Therefore, mortgage spreads sharply widened on that day as Silicon Valley Bank circled the drain.

So today, we're going to use the Magnifi Personal investing AI to compare the most important MBS-trading companies and see if there are any opportunities here - or if the risk is too high.

Doing this was simple. we asked Magnifi Personal to “Compare AGNC, STWD, and BXMT” and it did all the work.

To have the investing AI run similar comparisons for you, or to dive deeper into this one and compare other banks or REITs, we’re offering 90 days of free access to Magnifi Personal - just click here!

This ability to have an investing AI pore over reams of data for you in seconds and spit out an easy-to-understand comparison of two or more stocks is an invaluable tool in deciding where to invest next.

I highly recommend you try it out. Click here to see how you can do it today, free-of-charge.

Here’s what Magnifi Personal showed me after we asked it to in “Compare AGNC, STWD, and BXMT”: Continue reading "How to Steer Clear of the Silicon Valley Bank Meltdown"

"50 Cent" Profits From 3-Letter Acronyms

In February 2023, the US economy produced 311,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 205,000, and revised down from 504,000 in January. This indicates a labor market that remains tight, with an average of 343,000 jobs added per month over the previous six months.

This is another upbeat NFP report following last month's even stronger data. The Fed now has more ammunition to potentially raise rates by 0.5% at their next meeting.

Let's take a look at how the market reacted to this report.

1 Day Futures Performance

Chart Courtesy: finviz.com

The top three winners last Friday, when the jobs report was published, were VIX, which gained +9.42% in just one day, heating oil futures, which rose by +4.22%, and the Swiss franc, which increased by +2.75%. Continue reading ""50 Cent" Profits From 3-Letter Acronyms"