Tag: Stock Market Analysis

Post-Pandemic Gains Negated - Don't Be Remiss

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Relentless Selling

For many individual stocks, the post-pandemic gains have not only been negated, but share prices are now lower than pre-pandemic highs. The accommodative monetary policies, Covid related stimulus, asset purchases, and market liquidity are coming to an end. Now, raging inflation, impending interest rate hikes, Federal Reserve tapering, omicron ebb and flow, continued supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical issues have culminated into the current market swoon. The latest market weakness has been persistent over the past few months while being exacerbated in January and February to start 2022. A third of the Nasdaq 100 stocks are off at least 30% from their highs; half of the S&P 500 has fallen 15% or more while the median biotech stock has sold off by 60%. Taking a look at a composite of high-flying growth stocks using the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) as a proxy, this cohort is down 60% as well.

The recent multi-month sell-off from November 2021 through mid-February was met with heavy and vicious selling. Valuations have been decimated overall, and cold water has been thrown on investor enthusiasm, especially in the more speculative stocks in cloud software, SPACs, and recent IPOs. The tremendous selling volume has inflicted damage across the board, with whole swaths of the market auto-correlating into a downward spiral. Now many opportunities are presenting themselves as valuations have been greatly reduced. Being too bearish may prove ill-advised over the long term as we're witnessing the 2020 Covid-induced sell-off unfold all over once again. Portfolio balance is key in any environment and deploying the cash portion of one's portfolio during periods of moderating valuations is exactly where this cash can be advantageous. Cash can be used opportunistically for snapping up heavily discounted stocks of high-quality companies during periods of indiscriminate and heavy selling. Continue reading "Post-Pandemic Gains Negated - Don't Be Remiss" →

Opportunities Abound - Building Out A Portfolio

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

The economy is going through a pivotal moment as the Federal Reserve withdrawals stimulus as economic tailwinds may be in jeopardy. The culmination of inflation, supply chain constraints, pandemic backdrop, rising rates, and easy money policies coming to an end has led to some individual stocks losing 30%-80% of their value in a matter of weeks. All the major indices have sold off in a meaningful way and are now in correction territory. Initially, there was a massive sea change in the market out of technology, specifically high beta/richly valued stocks and into value. As a result, the Nasdaq dropped over 15%, Russell 2000 dropped over 20%, S&P 500 dropped over 10%, and the Dow Jones dipped down over 8%.

With many high-quality companies selling at deep discounts, this correction offers an opportunity to build out a portfolio and engage in dollar-cost averaging. It's difficult, if not at all impossible, to time the market and buy at the exact bottom. However, one can initiate a position and add to the position as the stock becomes cheaper when and if the market-wide sell-off deepens. Any portfolio strategy should include a cash portion, and it's times like these where the cash portion should be deployed and put to work.

Earnings Disasters And Indiscriminate Selling

Disappointing earnings have been a linchpin for individual stocks to lose swaths of value while sending entire sectors into a downward spiral. The financials suffered massive selling pressure after JP Morgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) reported earnings. Netflix (NFLX) saw its stock tank over 25% after reporting earnings, and this reverberated through the streaming space to sink Disney (DIS) too. Continue reading "Opportunities Abound - Building Out A Portfolio" →

Do Valuations Matter Anymore?

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Over the first half of 2021, the overall markets have had breathtaking moves of appreciation. The major indices are in unprecedented territory breaking through all-time high after all-time in what seems to be daily. The broader market has been in a blistering bull market for over a year straight, only accelerating since the November 2020 election cycle and really taking off into July 2021. Thus far in 2021, the S&P 500 is up over 16% and recently posted a seven consecutive positive day winning streak. The S&P 500 is up nearly 5% in the two weeks covering the Q2/Q3 junction, with its most recent run of seven consecutive days being the best winning streak since August of 2020. The other major indices, such as the Nasdaq and Dow Jones, are showing similar patterns as measured via QQQ and DIA, respectively. These markets are unrelenting and beg the question, do valuations even matter anymore?

Stocks are overbought and at extreme valuations, as measured by any historical metric (P/E ratio, Shiller P/E ratio, Buffet Indicator, Put/Call Ratio, and percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average) or technical metric (Bollinger Bands and Relative Strength Index - RSI). Valuations are stretched across the board, with the major averages at all-time highs and far away above pre-pandemic highs.

Financial Experts Issue Market Crash Harbinger

Major influencers across the financial spectrum such as Michael Burry, Jeremy Grantham, Leon Cooperman, Stanley Druckenmiller, Jeffrey Gundlach, Kevin O'Leary, Gary Shilling, and Robert Kiyosaki are all bracing for a market crash. Collectively, they are all concerned about the rampant speculation and extreme valuations fueled by government stimulus programs.

Michael Burry stated that the markets are in the "greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things,” and speculation is happening across assets before the "mother of all crashes."

Jeremy Grantham stated that the market is Continue reading "Do Valuations Matter Anymore?" →

Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Suggests Volatility May Surge

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

Over the past few weeks and months, a number of key economic data has continued to rally the US major indexes towards new highs, hopes of a US/China trade deal, a continued shift of capital in the US markets for protection and safety, and moderately strong US economic indicators and an earning season that appears to be moderately strong for Q3 of 2019. The interesting facet of this move higher is that it is happening while trading volume has diminished dramatically in the SPY. The futures contracts, the ES, YM, and NQ, continue to show relatively strong volume activity though.

Additionally, the overnight Repo markets have risen to the attention of many skilled analysts. The concern is that the continued US Fed support of the overnight Repo facility may be a band-aid attempt to support a gaping credit crisis that is brewing just outside of view. We’ve been doing quite a bit of research over the past few weeks regarding this Repo market support by the US Fed and we believe there is more to it than many believe. We believe certain institutional banking firms may be at extreme risks related to derivative investments, shadow banking activities and/or global commodity/stock/currency/asset risk exposure. The only answer we have for the extended Repo facility at increasing levels is that the institutional banking system is starting to “fray around the edges”. Thus, we believe some larger credit risk problems may be just around the corner.

Our longer-term analysis continues to suggest that “all is fine – until it is not”. Our belief that a capital shift that has been taking place over the past 5+ years where foreign capital continues to pour into the US markets is driving US stock market prices higher. There is evidence that the capital shift into the US has slowed over the past 5+ months, yet one would not notice this by looking at these longer-term charts. The point we are trying to make today is that price peaks near current highs have, historically, been met with strong resistance and collapsed by 8 to 15% on average. Continue reading "Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Suggests Volatility May Surge" →

Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

News, again, drives the US stock market and major indexes higher as optimism of a US/China trade agreement floods the news wires. As we’ve been suggesting, the global markets continue to be news-driven and are seeking any positive news related to easing trade tensions and capital markets. We believe any US/China trade deal would be received as very positive news by the global capital markets – yet we understand the process of achieving the components of the “deal” would likely still be 6 to 24 months away.

Still, with the strength of the US economy and the potential that some deal could be reached before the end of 2019 setting positive expectations, the US stock market and major indexes rallied last Thursday and Friday (October 10 and 11). As the long holiday weekend sets up with no trading on Monday, it will be interesting to see what is potentially resolved between President Trump and the Chinese before the markets start to react on Sunday and Monday nights. Make sure up opt-in to our free-market trend signals newsletter.

Our research team wanted to highlight some very key elements related to technical price theory and technical analysis. These weekly charts highlight what we believe is “key resistance” in the US major indexes and share our research team’s concern that the markets may be reacting to news more than relying on fundamental economic and earnings valuations. In past articles, we’ve highlighted how a “capital shift” is continuing to take place where foreign capital is actively seeking safety and security for future returns. This leads to a shift in how capital is being deployed throughout the globe. Continue reading "Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance" →