Tag: The Energy Information Administration (EIA)

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, June 2019

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for June, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. It estimated stocks rose by 38 million barrels in May to 2.902 billion, 84 million barrels higher than a year ago.

However, throughout 2019, OECD inventories are no longer expected to rise any further. At year-end, EIA projects 2019 to be with 2.871 million barrels, 10 million more than at the end of 2018. For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build 49 million barrels to end the year at 2.920 billion.

oecd oil inventories

The EIA has revised its estimates for future OPEC production down significantly, given the sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela. For much of the balance of 2019 and 2020, it expects OPEC production to remain under 30 million barrels per day. U.S. shale is expected to capture market share from OPEC. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, June 2019" →

U.S. Crude Production Rebounds In March

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that March crude oil production averaged 11.905 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 241,000 b/d from February. The rise was largely the result of the resumption of output from the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) which had been affected by unscheduled maintenance. Production rose by 191,000 b/d.

Crude Production

Elsewhere, there were gains of 42,000 b/d in North Dakota, 23,000 b/d in New Mexico and 16,000 b/d in Oklahoma. There was a decline of 17,000 b/d in Colorado and 5,000 b/d in Texas. A pause in the growth rate in Texas had been expected due to pipeline constraints which are expected to be alleviated in the second half of 2019. Nonetheless, crude production rose by a spectacular 1.441 mmbd from June through March. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Rebounds In March" →

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, May 2019

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for May, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June at 2.806 billion barrels. It estimated that stocks rose by 20 million barrels in April to 2.860 billion, 51 million barrels higher than a year ago.

Throughout the balance of 2019, OECD inventories are expected to rise modestly. At year-end, EIA projects stocks at 2.870 million barrels, 11 million more than at the end of 2018.

For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build another 35 million barrels to end the year at 2.905 billion. The non-extension of waivers to Iran’s sanctions implies lower OPEC output for the period, and this factor has lowered the EIA’s stock forecast materially.

oecd oil inventories

Oil Price Implications

I updated my linear regression between OECD oil inventories and WTI crude oil prices for the period 2010 through 2018. As expected, there are periods where the price deviates greatly from the regression model. But overall, the model provides a reasonably high r-square result of 80 percent. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, May 2019" →

U.S. Crude Production In February Reflects Unscheduled GOM Maintenance

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that February crude oil production averaged a surprising 11.683 million barrels per day (mmbd), down 187,000 b/d from January. The drop was totally the result of unscheduled maintenance in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), which averaged 1.719 mmbd. Production had been over 1.9 mmbd in November through January.

Crude Production

Despite drops in January and February, crude production still rose by a spectacular 1.219 mmbd from June through February, a period when capacity takeaway constraints had been expected to slow down the growth in Texas.

Production in Texas rose by 69,000 b/d to a record 4.890 mmbd. That was nearly offset by a decline in North Dakota of 64,000 b/d due to seasonal factors. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production In February Reflects Unscheduled GOM Maintenance" →

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, April 2019

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for April, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June at 2.806 billion barrels. It estimated stocks fell by 18 million barrels In March to 2.829 billion, 23 million barrels higher than a year ago.

However, throughout 2019, OECD inventories are expected to rise rather quickly through November. At year-end, EIA projects 2091 to be with 2.915 million barrels, 53 million more than at the end of 2018.

For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build another 70 million barrels to end the year at 2.985 billion. That would push stocks into glut territory.

oecd oil inventories

Oil Price Implications

I updated my linear regression between OECD oil inventories and WTI crude oil prices for the period 2010 through 2018. As expected, there are periods where the price deviates greatly from the regression model. But overall, the model provides a reasonably high r-square result of 80 percent. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, April 2019" →