Tag: The Federal Reserve

Fed Rate Decision: Buy the Dollar on the Dips

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


The Fed rate decision is approaching quickly. Will the Fed choose to ignore the headline inflation figure and China's woes and decide to press on with a rate hike this month? No one really knows what they'll decide. One might conclude then, that if the Fed rate decision is a guessing game, so is the Dollar, right? Wrong! In fact, the Fed rate decision could be one of the best times to pile on to the Dollar and buy it cheap.

Fed Rate Hike Not Priced In

With all that talk of a Fed rate hike it might seem that a Fed rate hike is now priced in. But that's not the case. As the data from the CME Fed Fund futures prices, the market sees only a 25% chance for the Fed to raise rates this September. And that could explain why the Dollar Index took a dip over the past weeks.

CME Group FEDWatch

But here's where it gets really interesting. When we move forward on the calendar and examine the probability of a rate hike by December, the likelihood jumps to 59%. If we continue to move on into March 2016, that probability jumps to 77%. That means markets are almost certain that the Fed will raise rates at least once in the coming two quarters. Continue reading "Fed Rate Decision: Buy the Dollar on the Dips" →

Nobody Knows The Data We've Seen

Posted on by The INO.com Team

That could well be the Fed's dilemma as it wrestles with the problems it sees with its data series. It's Wednesday and no one has a clue as to what the Fed is going to do. More importantly, no one knows what the market is going to do in reaction to what the Fed may or may not do.

So as traders, what should we be doing?

The important thing to remember is that you have many days to trade the markets and put on new positions, you don't have to do it today or just before the Fed's big announcement. No one is saying that you have to trade today.

The move yesterday in the markets was somewhat surprising, but did not change the overall direction of the Dow or the S&P 500. In the case of the NASDAQ, yesterday's move did change things in terms of the Trade Triangles. The NASDAQ is officially on the sidelines based the new weekly green Trade Triangle. In regards to the other two major indices, everything remains the same, you should either be short or out of the market on the Dow and the S&P 500. Continue reading "Nobody Knows The Data We've Seen" →

Joe McAlinden Reverses View, Predicts Recovery for Gold, Oil and Housing

Posted on by admin

With the markets in whiplash mode, Joe McAlinden, founder of McAlinden Research Partners and former chief global strategist with Morgan Stanley Investment Management, believes volatility is going to stick around for a while, and we might see a correction double of what we've had so far. In this interview with The Gold Report, McAlinden bucks conventional wisdom to argue that an interest rate hike is good for gold and oil, and lays out his investing strategy for this period of market uncertainty.

The Gold Report: For more than a decade, you led Morgan Stanley Investment Management's global investment strategy; now you own your own research firm based on your observations of the industry for more than 50 years. How do you explain the volatility in the markets right now and how should investors position themselves to prepare for what is coming?

Joe McAlinden: It has been a wonderful bull market, a wild ride going all the way back to 2007 when the market made its top. That was followed by a horrendous plunge. We've not only made that back, but the market has reached highs that were 36% above the 2007 highs. I had been concerned recently, however, that price-earnings ratios have become elevated and we are seeing other spooky similarities to the conditions that prevailed prior to the 1987 crash, including the absence of a more than a 10% correction for three years and a breakdown of small-cap stocks. The market could be vulnerable to some kind of major shock. I believe that the big shock is only beginning to unfold and that as it does, this correction will get considerably worse, perhaps double what we've had so far and maybe even worse than that.

TGR: What do you think the market expects the Federal Reserve Board to do? Continue reading "Joe McAlinden Reverses View, Predicts Recovery for Gold, Oil and Housing" →

Sorry Guys, I Am Not Drinking The Kool-Aid

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Yesterday, the market was remarkably quiet and lulled everybody into a sense of complacency. Well, I'm sorry I'm not going to drink the Kool-Aid because I still think we are going to see a push to the downside in the markets.

With all of the Trade Triangles in a negative mode and the weekly pattern indicating stocks should finish lower for the week, I see little to get excited about.

Everyone is waiting for Thursday and to see what the Fed is going to do. Even the best minds in the industry are split on what the Fed is likely to do on Thursday. My view is that they are just going to leave everything the way it is. The Fed is like a deer frozen in the headlights of a car and incapable of moving one way or another. What I suspect they will say is that they need more data, which I think is a cop out. Continue reading "Sorry Guys, I Am Not Drinking The Kool-Aid" →

Next Week Could Change Everything

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Next week, the Federal Reserve Board is set to meet between the 15th and the 17th to discuss the economy and if they should raise interest rates. There is not a unanimous opinion either in the marketplace, or the Fed itself regarding interest rates.

Should they choose to incrementally raise interest rates, the reaction in the market would tell us a lot about what the next big swing is going to be in stocks. I am not an economist nor do I have a crystal ball or inside track on what the Fed wants to do. What I do know is that the market will tell us what it wants to do and not the Fed. Right now, the major trend is down in all the indices and shows no real signs of reversing that trend any time soon. Continue reading "Next Week Could Change Everything" →